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Author Topic: Wow, things are REALLY Bad...DOW tops 14,000 for 1st time since 2007.. Back to Topics
RNorm

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San Bernardino

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Message Posted: Feb 1, 2013 11:49:33 AM

Obama is truly destroying the economy....LOL

[Edited by: RNorm at 2/1/2013 11:52:55 AM EST]
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Dec 12, 2013 11:45:47 PM

Well, five days after that seeming good news about new jobs we get seriously bad news: US Unemployment Aid Applications Surge to 368,000
"The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment benefits rose 68,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 368,000, the largest increase in more than a year. The surge in first-time applications could be a troubling sign if it lasts. But it likely reflects the difficulty adjusting for delays after the Thanksgiving holiday."

Ummmm, okay, but we have been told to believe that retailers hire more people for the holidays,.....not fewer......
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Dec 6, 2013 9:22:39 AM

Unemployment reaches 5-year low...

"The unemployment rate dropped three tenths of a percentage point to its lowest level since November 2008 as some federal workers who were counted as jobless in October returned to work after a 16-day partial shutdown of the government."
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lyanMI
Champion Author Detroit

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2013 4:48:14 PM

good days
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EZExit
Champion Author Phoenix

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Message Posted: Nov 19, 2013 5:06:15 PM

Weasel: <<<" Both are indicators, and the fact that there were more claims made can be interpreted as a positive sign that people are getting back out and looking for jobs who had previously left the workforce, can it not?">>>

--Unemployment numbers are garnered from phone surveys, jobless claims are literally the number of people on unemployment. The number of people claiming unemployment increasing is a negative sign that the volume of people loosing their jobs has increased some. The economy might be improving very lethargically, but jobless claim increases certainly is not great news.
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Nov 19, 2013 12:33:24 PM

"Wow, you abviously skipped the link which says "jobless claims rise 15,000 to 309,000""

"Jobless claims" is an entirely different metric than the unemployment rate. Both are indicators, and the fact that there were more claims made can be interpreted as a positive sign that people are getting back out and looking for jobs who had previously left the workforce, can it not?
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Nov 18, 2013 4:04:23 PM

Wow, Dow traded above 16,000 for the first time ever today. A late swoon took the over-watched average back down below this benchmark:Dow tops 16,000, finishes 15,976

"When it comes to market sentiment the nation is violently ambivalent. The unofficial meme of the week has been the idea that markets are in a "bubble" of some sort but no one knows exactly what kind of bubble or where it's located."

"Investors are passionately confused, which is usually when people start getting hurt."

"The future is promised to no one, but Hickey is having a hard time seeing euphoria. "We like to take things one step at a time but in the next 3 to 6 months we're certainly positive about stocks," he says."

Other news:

This is the hottest industry no one is talking about. Boeing is up 80% this year, and booked over $100 BILLION in new orders just yesterday!
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Sep 19, 2013 12:48:04 PM

Wow, you abviously skipped the link which says "jobless claims rise 15,000 to 309,000"

"The number of people applying for new unemployment benefits climbed above 300,000 again and could rise a bit more in upcoming weeks..."

"Initial jobless claims climbed by 15,000 to 309,000 in the week ended Sept. 14, the Labor Department said Thursday. A sharp drop two weeks ago sent claims below the key 300,000 mark for the first time in seven years, but the decline appeared to be tied more to processing delays than any sudden improvement in a sluggish U.S. labor market."

Wow indeed.
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Sep 19, 2013 9:20:13 AM

"Wow. Just wow. Only in convoluted America is dismal economic news reason for celebration."

Yet the unemployment rate continunes its march downwards...

"No Sign of Economic Rebound for Many in US"

Plenty of signs here. Lots of companies hiring/expanding. Turned down 2 job offers, accepted a 3rd... This was not the case a year or two ago.
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Sep 19, 2013 9:04:42 AM

Regardless of whether stocks are overvalued at this level, investors continue to move the market ahead.

Yesterday the Dow and S&P 500 both hit new record highs.
Why?
"The stock market hit a record high Wednesday as investors cheered the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to keep its economic stimulus program in place, at least for now."
Yes, follow the news. Bernanke announce that the Fed (Federal Reserve) sill not "taper", or reduce, the amount of Treasury Bonds it is buying. The continued debt funding is to continue the stimulus that has not been very effective at reducing unemployment or growing the economy in a meaningful way.
U.S. jobless claims rise 15,000 to 309,000
No Sign of Economic Rebound for Many in US

So, the stock markets set a record on the Fed response to continued economic weakness. Nice, huh?
Another aspect is that, while the Fed continues pumping made-up money into a moribund economy, low Treasury rates portend continued low mortgage rates but also continued low savings rates that banks pay.
In other words, it's a good time to borrow money and not a good time to save money.
Corporations like it as their costs of borrowing will continue to be low. And that is the reason for the run-up in stocks: a good outlook for corporate profits based on (artificially) low interest rates.

Wow. Just wow. Only in convoluted America is dismal economic news reason for celebration.

[Edited by: I75at7AM at 9/19/2013 9:06:22 AM EST]
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Aug 14, 2013 1:26:17 PM

Time for a drink of cold water? Or maybe a dousing with the stuff?

Stocks as overvalued now as at 2007 high

"Here’s yet another reason to be worried about the stock market: A valuation model with an impressive record says that stocks are as overvalued today as they were at the 2007 stock market peak."

" The VLMAP recently dropped to just 35%. The last time it was this low was in July 2007. At the top bull market in October of that year, it stood at 40%. As Seiver recently pointed out to his clients, the VLMAP’s current level “puts it in the worst 5% of all readings since 1966."

VLMAP stands for Value Line’s Median Appreciation Potential.

"...regardless of how much higher the market goes in the near term, in August 2017 it will not be sufficiently higher than where it is now to justify the risks involved."
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OilHo
Champion Author Ontario

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Message Posted: Aug 5, 2013 4:30:14 AM

15,593
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Jul 14, 2013 5:37:45 PM

"It's tough to time the market, weaslespit. How will you know when we it is at the bottom?"

Using the same crystal ball as everybody else. You don't have to find the 'bottom' to win. Targeting a price and putting in an automatic buy means that the market is low enough where one feels comfortable getting in such that they think it will go back up from there.

Take notes if you like.
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nstrdnvstr
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jul 14, 2013 5:01:37 PM

It's tough to time the market, weaslespit. How will you know when we it is at the bottom?
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: Jul 13, 2013 10:12:51 AM

"Now when interest rates go up, stocks can be in trouble."

Yes, there could be another correction. There always is... and when that time comes I will be buying again.
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nstrdnvstr
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jul 12, 2013 4:46:52 PM

As Warren Buffett has said, the reason for this is that there in nowhere else for the money to go. Interest paying securities are paying next to nothing right now. Now when interest rates go up, stocks can be in trouble.
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Jun 20, 2013 3:29:25 PM

The Dow and other indices drop precipitously for the second straight day, fallout from Ben Bernanke's remarks following the Fed's quarterly meeting.
Stocks Nosedive 2%, Dow Plummets Over 300 on Fed Taper Talk
"Stocks took a sharp nosedive across the board Thursday, with the Dow on track for its worst day of 2013, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted the central bank may scale back its asset purchases later this year.
With the declines from the last two sessions, the Dow and S&P 500 have wiped out all of their gains from May and June."
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: May 28, 2013 10:41:04 AM

Some people will not be able to buy more stocks when the markets go down.

Over 25% of 401Ks Tapped to Pay Current Bills; Dead-Fish Housing Assets; Walking Away Yet Again

>>The withdrawals, cash-outs and loans drain nearly a quarter of the $293 billion that workers and employers deposit into the accounts each year, undermining already shaky retirement security for millions of Americans.<<
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 5:02:02 PM

And when it goes back down I will buy more stocks... There are ALWAYS corrections to be had in the market.
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 4:26:41 PM

As many have posted earlier, the stock market is going up because it is literally the only game in town where investors can make money, not just from the increase in stock price but from the payment of dividends of profitable corporations.
Rising Stocks: A “Fake Rally” or Just Supply & Demand?

And how long can this "rally" last? It is built on "free" money being pumped into the economy by the Fed purchasing Treasury securities, to the tune of $85 Billion a month.Talk of Fed wind down grows louder
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gocatgo
Champion Author South Carolina

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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 10:35:11 AM

I buy stocks partly because I believe in America and partly because I enjoy the accumulated wealth I have thanks to the stock market. I will bet on America every time in spite of what the hope for failure crowd says.
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nstrdnvstr
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 9:05:04 AM

The stock market is in a bubble. There is nowhere else for the investment money to go. Those buying bonds will lose tons of money when interest rates eventually rise. This will happen when the Feds stop pumping $85,000,000,000 a month into the economy.
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Tru2psu2
Champion Author Winston-Salem

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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 5:26:11 AM

101, when interest rates go up we'll see how strong this economy is. I think I know what you are hoping for Mr Hope for Failure.
-------------------------------------
These jokers will disappear when that happens....

You won't be able to find them to stick it in their ear!
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: May 16, 2013 8:14:17 PM

Go ahead and bury your head in the sand if you want, gocatgo.

I'm sure with all of the jobs that Obama is saving, the economy will be just fine. <s>
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gocatgo
Champion Author South Carolina

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Message Posted: May 16, 2013 12:21:29 PM

101, when interest rates go up we'll see how strong this economy is. I think I know what you are hoping for Mr Hope for Failure.
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 8:10:26 PM

Some day interest rates will go up. Then we will see how strong this economy is.
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kiatoindos
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 9:47:10 AM

Wait till it crashes
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: May 14, 2013 10:14:55 PM

Unemployment numbers are going down. Full time labor participation numbers are going down.
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tankerCA
Champion Author Chico

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 5:55:35 PM

Excuse me but when you inject a trillion borrowed dollars (from China) into the economy for bail outs and business incentives, it's pretty hard to loose. Add to that the borrowed .7 Trillion from the Chinese by the previous Administration and the "mystery" is cleared up. Add to that the non-stop printing of the dollar by the Federal Reserve (which is a private organization) and there is no mystery.

The inescapable train wreck is coming fast and furiously. It will hit the day the world's reserve currency (the dollar)is no longer accepted. Already the debt is nearly unsustainable... The interest on the national debt consumes most of Americas GNP. So LOL to you. Hope you're ready for the biggest crisis ever to hit the US.
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nstrdnvstr
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 5:45:24 PM

""How about employment numbers? Going up, right? That's a good thing, right?"

Employment numbers are going up? What is the labor participation rate right now? What was it just 4 years ago?

What about the overly large number of people on food stamps? I bet they are saying that the economy isn't good right now.
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btc1
Champion Author Lexington

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 5:38:26 PM

Weaslespit, "Did anybody really expect to regain such ghastly losses in just a couple of years? I'll take 9 more years of steady recovery/growth."

I agree. As a matter of fact I said that back in 2009.
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 2:53:51 PM

"How about employment numbers? Going up, right? That's a good thing, right?
Try this statistic: at the current rate of job creation, it will take nine more years for the unemployment rate to reach the point it was at before the recession started. Source? NPR news."

Did anybody really expect to regain such ghastly losses in just a couple of years? I'll take 9 more years of steady recovery/growth. Look at Europe...
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 2:51:56 PM

"The main point I wanted to make by posting Reich's comments is that the recent performance of the stock market is not necessarily related to anything Obama has done."

OK, we are in agreement then! I do believe that the DOW is only a rough indicator with regards to the health of the economy. That is why I supplement such information with job reports, etc.
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btc1
Champion Author Lexington

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 1:17:25 PM

I still have not had anyone explain to me why when it drops it is really bad, but when it goes up it is not good.

Hmmmm... both ways? What causes the change in interpretation?

It is not something that immediately says we are back, but, it seems it is a good indicator of investor confidence.
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Tru2psu2
Champion Author Winston-Salem

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 12:58:46 PM

I really want to hear you chime in when the Fed stops buying bonds and printing money....

Don't disappear now!
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I75at7AM
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 12:47:13 PM

>>>"Unlike RNorm, I think there are other indicators which are better in determining the stability of the country's economy."

Yeah, I could cite other indicators,... <<<

How about employment numbers? Going up, right? That's a good thing, right?
Try this statistic: at the current rate of job creation, it will take nine more years for the unemployment rate to reach the point it was at before the recession started. Source? NPR news.
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LTVibe
Champion Author Orlando

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 12:27:51 PM

>>>"...in a global economy everybody wins. Just because Apple (for example) assembles most of thier products in China doesn't mean that iPhone sales don't have a profound benefit to the US economy with regards to apps, etc. Manufacturing is only one piece of the pie."<<<

I agree. Perhaps we've been trying too hard to find disagreement.

The main point I wanted to make by posting Reich's comments is that the recent performance of the stock market is not necessarily related to anything Obama has done. The good news is that Obama's policies have not had any negative effects on Wall Street.



[Edited by: LTVibe at 5/13/2013 12:29:26 PM EST]
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 11:31:05 AM

"Yes we do. And we would have many more employed if companies didn't invest so much of their engineering budget overseas."

That is a very speculative comment, don't you think?

"But there are many companies, like HP and Apple, that do not have obligations imposed on them by unions and the government like GM does. HP and Apple are free to invest far more overseas."

You brought up GM specifically with regards to Caddy in China... Regardless, in a global economy everybody wins. Just because Apple (for example) assembles most of thier products in China doesn't mean that iPhone sales don't have a profound benefit to the US economy with regards to apps, etc. Manufacturing is only one piece of the pie.
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RNorm
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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 11:00:30 AM

"Unlike RNorm, I think there are other indicators which are better in determining the stability of the country's economy."


Yeah, I could cite other indicators, but many would still pooh pooh those as well and would STILL only see doom and gloom...so why bother?
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LTVibe
Champion Author Orlando

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 10:49:26 AM

>>>LOL - of course, the US doesn't employ anybody in this field...<<<

Yes we do. And we would have many more employed if companies didn't invest so much of their engineering budget overseas.

>>>First, you ignored my second comment on this point that the recovery could have been better.<<<

Then I guess we are in agreement to some extent.

>>>Unless Opel is doing well in Europe? I don't see GM investing too much there...<<<

Opel isn't doing well. Nonetheless...

April 10, 2013 - GM to Invest $5.2 Billion in Opel Over Next Four Years

>>>Perhaps you should Google the amount of money GM has invested in its plants in the US recently to give you some persepctive.<<<

No need to 'Google' it. I've been reading GM's corporate news page for years. But there are many companies, like HP and Apple, that do not have obligations imposed on them by unions and the government like GM does. HP and Apple are free to invest far more overseas.
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 10:22:41 AM

How's Detroit Economy doing???

Also, who is realizing the gains in the stock markets? Is the average joe?

One of my 401K accounts is doing all right... It's recovered from the dip of 2009. Though I have limited my exposure to stock market due to concern of volatility... Unlike RNorm, I think there are other indicators which are better in determining the stability of the country's economy.
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gocatgo
Champion Author South Carolina

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 9:38:04 AM

I can't help but notice cons are not bragging about their rising 401K. I think they are afraid that would be an admission that the economy has turned around. Cons as usual are very reluctant to give this President credit for success. This is the same bunch that says they are not biased.
Shock, Shock.
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 9:13:14 AM

"Yes, but often they are workers in other countries. For example, United Technologies has 'research and development centers in Shanghai, China, and Cork, Ireland'."

LOL - of course, the US doesn't employ anybody in this field...

"And unemployment was considered 'unacceptably' high 4 tears ago. Recent improvements in job gains are still far too low to absorb young workers now entering the work force for the first time."

First, you ignored my second comment on this point that the recovery could have been better. Secondly, you need to read my link from 5/3 regarding job gains being 'too low'. Hopefully you will be pleasantly surprised.

"It's not what I 'think', it's what Reich thinks."

If you posted it then you must 'think' the same. You would both be wrong. Unless Opel is doing well in Europe? I don't see GM investing to omuch there...

"May 7, 2013 - GM Approved To Build $1.3 Billion Cadillac Assembly Plant In China"

And so do you assume all components for Caddy's assembled in China are also assembled in China? Perhaps you should Google the amount of money GM has invested in its plants in the US recently to give you some persepctive.
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btc1
Champion Author Lexington

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 8:14:13 AM

This at least means that investors have the confidence to invest. The reason they are betting on the stock market, though, is because interest rates are so low.

Is inflation around the corner? Maybe. But, the Fed is struggling to keep that at bay.

Now the US Government has surpluses. Well, it is an improvement. Like I have said in another thread, we here in Central Kentucky are experiencing a growth in jobs from companies worldwide who decided either to come here or expand here. Something is looking good to them.
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LTVibe
Champion Author Orlando

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 7:58:03 AM

This is for the posters who do not read the other thread...

>>>And who does the technology development? Workers...<<<

Yes, but often they are workers in other countries. For example, United Technologies has 'research and development centers in Shanghai, China, and Cork, Ireland'.

>>>Unemployment is at a 4-year low.<<<

And unemployment was considered 'unacceptably' high 4 tears ago. Recent improvements in job gains are still far too low to absorb young workers now entering the work force for the first time.

>>> If you think global expansion is up across the board, I would have to say you are mistaken.<<<

It's not what I 'think', it's what Reich thinks. Considering he is a liberal Democrat, perhaps his facts are skewed. On the other hand, I often see headlines like this: May 7, 2013 - GM Approved To Build $1.3 Billion Cadillac Assembly Plant In China



[Edited by: LTVibe at 5/13/2013 8:01:37 AM EST]
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LTVibe
Champion Author Orlando

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 7:23:25 AM

>>"Since you posted the same thing in multiple threads vibe..."<<

I posted it in just two threads, and for one reason: the author, Robert Reich, is a well known and respected economist as well as a liberal Democrat Obama supporter. And he does not credit Wall Street's performance with the President's policies.

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RNorm
Champion Author San Bernardino

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 1:38:32 AM

More turrible news:


"It was the first monthly surplus since January and the biggest monthly surplus since the $159 billion budget surplus of April 2008.

Tax receipts were $407 billion, up 28% versus April 2012, while spending was $294 billion, 13% more than in the year-earlier month.

April is typically a surplus month because of income-tax payments.

Through the first seven months of the 2013 fiscal year, the deficit is $488 billion, 32% lower than the same period last year.

The monthly number was about in line with a projection earlier this week from the Congressional Budget Office."


April budget surplus is U.S.’s biggest in 5 years...(Federal deficit is down 32% so far this fiscal year too)
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jayrad1957
Champion Author Los Angeles

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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 12:41:33 AM

My 401k is up almost 11% in the last year. I can't complain.
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jayrad1957
Champion Author Los Angeles

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Message Posted: May 12, 2013 10:46:33 PM

"Its amazing, but predictable that as things continue to improve, all some people see is gloom and doom..."

It is all part of the ODS many on the right are suffering from...
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RNorm
Champion Author San Bernardino

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Message Posted: May 12, 2013 9:25:59 PM

Its amazing, but predictable that as things continue to improve, all some people see is gloom and doom...

*ROTFL*
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Weaslespit
Champion Author Cincinnati

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Message Posted: May 12, 2013 6:50:57 PM

Since you posted the same thing in multiple threads vibe, I'll respond in-kind;

"First, productivity gains. Corporations have been investing in technology rather than their workers."

And who does the technology development? Workers...

"Second, high unemployment itself. Joblessness all but eliminates the bargaining power of most workers -- allowing corporations to keep wages low."

Unemployment is at a 4-year low. Takes time to recover from the free-fall Obama inherited. Could the recover have been better? Absolutely.

"Third, globalization. Big American-based corporations have been expanding and hiring around the globe where markets are growing fastest -- even while the U.S. market is lackluster."

The global economy is still hurting, far worse than our own (especially Europe). Even China is having issues. If you think global expansion is up across the board, I would have to say you are mistaken.

"Finally, the Fed's easy-money policies. They've pushed investors into the stock market because bond yields are so low."

Yes, this I would agree with. Expect a correction when this policy changes (making it the time to buy more stocks).
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