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Author Topic: Any guesses on today's stock market direction? Back to Topics
jeskibuff

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 6:32:02 AM

Yesterday, MSNBC.com attributed a 134 gain in the Dow to the promise that Obozo would be re-elected. Where did they get THAT notion, especially after the market's reaction to Obozo's victory in 2008 and early 2009? I attribute that gain to the hope that Romney would be the victor.

Right now the markets are closed, and I'm going to predict an enormous slide today, similar to what we saw the first 2 days of Obozo's 2008 victory.

Why?

Businesses have been in limbo, wondering about the uncertainty of Obozo's agenda. They have been hanging on a thread, hoping that our "Great Mistake of 2008" would be corrected and the weight of impending regulations and taxes and uncertainty would be lifted, enabling them to be profitable and allowing the free market to prosper once again.

That hope has been dashed. The future is mighty dim. I think we'll even see many businesses closing because of the struggle to maintain profitability against an aggressive government that believes they "didn't build that". Closing doors will increase unemployment and further weaken other businesses, as there will be much less disposable income floating around.

Already, we're seeing a lack of confidence in the strength of the U.S. dollar. AnotherOne posted this link to an article on my whiteboard. It starts by saying "The dollar dropped the most in a week against the euro on speculation Barack Obama’s re-election as president will boost chances the U.S. will maintain monetary stimulus policies that tend to weaken the greenback."

I'm predicting a slide of 500 to 600 points today. Anyone else care to go out on a limb?



[Edited by: jeskibuff at 11/7/2012 6:34:15 AM EST]
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jeskibuff
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2012 8:40:59 PM

101Speedster said: "It will be interesting to see what happens if an agreement is reached."

Why would Obozo want to reach an agreement? Going off the fiscal cliff will be just what he wants to happen.

First of all, if he really WAS trying to fix the economy, by now he should have realized his own incompetence and the tragic failure of all of his "genius" solutions. Solyndra, Cash for Clunkers, "unemployment below 8%", "Recovery Summer","shovel-ready jobs" plus many more...ALL failed miserably! Regardless of how many millions of morons think he was just handed a bad deck by Bush and will somehow reverse his solid record of failure, at least HE should be aware of the cold hard truth by now. So a fiscal cliff will be just what the doctor ordered! The economy can go down the crapper and he'll have something additional to blame his ineptitude on!

Or, the second possibility is that he wants America to fail. At first, I didn't give much credence to that theory but after seeing D'Souza's "2016" movie, I find that the arguments he laid out are pretty strong. How satisfying it will be for Obozo to take this colonialist, imperialist nation to the brink and then nudge it over?
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101Speedster
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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2012 7:40:20 PM

The DOW was down, -58.9 points, today.
It will be interesting to see what happens if an agreement is reached.
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ShanC
Champion Author Rochester

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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2012 5:19:47 PM

>BIKER's on your side, ShanC. WERE DOOMED [past tense]

I was not going to be the one to nit-pick the spelling error, despite finding the same humor in it that you did.

But I *was* going to be the one to note the monotonous repetition of hyperbole across a number of topics, and the caps lock!
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2012 2:03:20 PM

CNBC: Stocks reverse course after Obama discusses fiscal cliff.
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MahopacJack
Champion Author New York

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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2012 9:38:08 AM

EKEugene>>...The fact is (and this is statistical and not subject to debate), the DJIA began to slide in the Spring of 2008, and That's all there is to it. You could look it up. I did-- That's how I quoted the exact numbers.<<
---
Perhaps you should seek elsewhere for your data source. The market began its slide in October 2007 after problems in the Housing Markets were spotted int he July report.
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MahopacJack
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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2012 9:33:10 AM

EKEugene, >>Sorry, this is a ridiculous argument. First, picking a point six months into the slide absolutely is random, except that you're doing it for the purpose of fabricating a false cause and effect. The fact is (and this is statistical and not subject to debate), the DJIA began to slide in the Spring of 2008, and That's all there is to it. You could look it up. I did-- That's how I quoted the exact numbers.

Obama is "responsible" for squat beginning November 2008, because he had no power until January 2009. That's another fact.

The rest of the post is even sillier, suggesting that associating a political party with some cabinet member (which is not an elected position) somehow cancels out the Presidency (the cabinet member's boss) and absolves him from any association therewith. It doesn't. It's irrelevant. You're bending over backward to make excuses, just so you can fabricate history in spite of statistics."
---
It is only ridiculous to people who use ridicule to support their view(s). While Obama's socialistic tendencies were made known prior to the election, they were for most part ignored until the day after Election Day in 2008. At that time, those who follow the market began to make PREDICTIONS on the effects of his policies. This resulted in an immediate slide and continued as he added such stalwarts as math challenged Tim "Turbo Tax" Geinthner to his team that will save America from ourselves. In order for your claim that my analysis is ridiculous, you have to make the case that Wall Street Analysts do not make predictions on the effect of Presidential Policy until AFTER they are in office. Even the most casual observers would agree that would, indeed, be ridiculous but somehow you come to that obvious false conclusion.

There can be no denial that Hank Paulsen Treasury Secretary indeed Panicked Under Fire (PUF) as his first proposal was for a BLANK CHECK to save our selves from our selves. As he was once head of Goldman Sachs (an INVESTMENT BANK) included in the bailout money for Banks. He also managed similar NON Banks receive TARP funding that were not part of the traditional bank system. Somehow he managed to eliminate Goldman's only real competitor Lehman Brothers via not having the Federal Funds available to them. (The Federal Reserve had the power to do so WITHOUT CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL.) Lehman would have never failed and the whole TARP fiasco might have never happened.
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EKEugene
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 9:29:33 PM


>> Nothing random about my picking the November 2008 price level. As most people know, the stock market index is a forecaster of business 6 to 12 months in the future. The Market, upon Obama's election immediately headed south and remained in a free fall till March of 2009. Obama had already made his neo-socialist policies known and the market responded accordingly. Obama is responsible for the slide beginning in November 2008.

Sorry, this is a ridiculous argument. First, picking a point six months into the slide absolutely is random, except that you're doing it for the purpose of fabricating a false cause and effect. The fact is (and this is statistical and not subject to debate), the DJIA began to slide in the Spring of 2008, and that's all there is to it. You could look it up. I did-- that's how I quoted the exact numbers.

Obama is "responsible" for squat beginning November 2008, because he had no power until January 2009. That's another fact.

The rest of the post is even sillier, suggesting that associating a political party with some cabinet member (which is not an elected position) somehow cancels out the Presidency (the cabinet member's boss) and absolves him from any association therewith. It doesn't. It's irrelevant. You're bending over backward to make excuses, just so you can fabricate history in spite of statistics.

Seems to be a lot of that going around.


[Edited by: EKEugene at 11/8/2012 9:31:58 PM EST]
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teacher_tim
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 8:51:53 PM

BIKER's on your side, ShanC. WERE DOOMED [past tense] Apparently, we're not doomed anymore, now that Obama is re-elected and will unveil his secret knowledge of how the fiscal cliff he signed into law will definitely be evaded, and how the economy will suddenly turn around in ways previously unknown.

Three Cheers!
Hip, hip THUD [down 300+ points]
Hip, hip THUD [down 100+ points]
Hip, hip ...
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101Speedster
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 8:47:50 PM

Anyone care to make a guess where the markets will go tomorrow?
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ShanC
Champion Author Rochester

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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 8:31:33 PM

>were doomed

REALLY???? SINCE THAT IS THE ***FIRST TIME*** I HAVE SEEN YOU POST THAT... IT ***MUST*** BE TRUE!!!!

Thank you for the in-depth insightful contribution to intelligent discussion!
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RDNKBIKER
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 2:02:32 PM

down

were doomed
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e_jeepin
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 1:48:45 PM

Looks like another -100 today. DOW is almost down 750 points since Sept 15, and is currently at a 9 month low.

Still 3.7% positive for the year but another -400 points and that is gone.

Earnings have evaporated, tax revenues accelerate downward, it doesn't matter what the tax rate increases to, there is less to tax.
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ShanC
Champion Author Rochester

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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 12:46:33 PM

>gasoline was the result bad economic conditions, so that high gas prices we're
>seeing now means automatically that the economy is doing well.

AND

>oil prices falling means weakness in the market

Zinged41, what you said here is true for what usually occurs (and therefore has no place in GB)... but I was *still* expecting to see someone bring it up!

>market had no confidence in Obama's reelection

That is also pretty normal. Like I said earlier: The week before - it almost always goes up. After Election Day - it often goes down.
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Zinged41
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 11:01:59 AM

ShanC - as to oil sliding, wasn't it Obama that cliamed that the reason that gas was so cheap when he took office was that the economy was in a shambles? Obama asserted that cheap gasoline was the result bad economic conditions, so that high gas prices we're seeing now means automatically that the economy is doing well. So by Obama's own logic, oil prices falling means weakness in the market, and that the market had no confidence in Obama's reelection. Ditto the Dow taking a 300+ point dump.
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ShanC
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 10:52:07 AM

MahopacJack on Nov 7, 2012 8:48:37 PM EST

> btc1, >>The market usually goes up before a Presidential Election.<<

> ---

> Not so

Yes. The week before, like from Wednesday to that Monday close before Election Day, the market almost always goes up.
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 12:20:13 AM

>>When you retire, here is a little free advise to anyone who wants to take it, sell your stock, and have all bond funds. Much much safer.<<

What is it they say about putting all of your eggs in one basket?
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mudtoe
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 9:11:34 PM

There is likely to be a big sell off before the end of the year. The market knows now that taxes will go up next year no matter what else happens to the economy, so people with long term capital gains will be incented to sell before the end of the year. Also dividend producing stocks, which have been big winners for the past couple of years due to the low tax rates on dividends, will be disproportionately sold relative to other stocks both because of the capital gains and because the dividend tax rate is scheduled to almost triple for high income earners on January 1st, thus making stocks that pay good dividends less attractive relative to those that provide more long term capital gains.

Expect to see little upward movement in 2013, and likely some fairly significant downward movement in the markets. Nothing positive has come out of the election. In the short term taxes are going up, and the long term issue, the deficit (a.k.a. spending more than we take in), is only going to get worse. In that environment it won't take much of an international incident, either militarily such as Israel attacking Iran (or visa versa), or monetarily such as Greece being forced out of the Euro, to really start a big downward momentum. This is also before we hear what Obama's "signature" goal is for his second term. The one thing you can make a sure bet on is that it won't be fiscal restraint.


mudtoe
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MahopacJack
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 8:48:37 PM

btc1, >>The market usually goes up before a Presidential Election.<<

---

Not so but it usually goes up when the incumbent wins the November election. Yale Hirsch discovered this many decades ago. He used to write and may still, "The Stock Trader's Almanac."
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MahopacJack
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 8:38:52 PM

EKEugene, >>Nice try with the out-of-context snapshot starting from Random Point A, but a quick scan of the DJIA history puts the lie to that. <<
---
Nothing random about my picking the November 2008 price level. As most people know, the stock market index is a forecaster of business 6 to 12 months in the future. The Market, upon Obama's election immediately headed south and remained in a free fall till March of 2009. Obama had already made his neo-socialist policies known and the market responded accordingly. Obama is responsible for the slide beginning in November 2008.

Your memory also seems to conveniently forget Treasury Secretary Han Paulsen's PUF (Panic Under Fire) in September where the Dow slipped 2,000 points in a very short time. One might say it was under Bush's watch (it indeed was) but Paulsen was and remains a Democrat. Interestingly, The Huffington Post ran a story about the action headlined, "Hank Paulsen Just Elected Barrack Obama President."

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worryfree
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 7:25:23 PM

You cons are gonna blame Obama so I am gonna blame Boehner
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ShanC
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 7:23:34 PM

>Yesterday, MSNBC.com attributed a 134 gain in the Dow to the promise that Obozo
>would be re-elected.

The market usually goes up before a Presidential Election.

>the market closed down 312.95. Not quite the beating I had predicted,

Percentage-wise, it is higher than the median value that the market normally drops the day after a Presidential Election.
(This is of course based upon only the 29 elections since 1900.)

For example:
Nov. 8, 1932. -4.5%
Nov. 5, 1940. -2.4%
Nov. 2, 1948. -3.8%

.
I am surprised I saw no note of how 'the election caused' the price of oil to drop more than $4 per barrel.
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jacka123
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:49:00 PM

Hey worryfree, that's the funniest thing I've ever heard, lol. I would say half the people investing in the stock market, couldn't even tell you what the House of Representatives even is. You give people a lot of credit for being smart. Lots are not smart at all, lol.

When you retire, here is a little free advise to anyone who wants to take it, sell your stock, and have all bond funds. Much much safer.

[Edited by: jacka123 at 11/7/2012 5:51:40 PM EST]
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btc1
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:44:02 PM

Why guess? Here is the cause, from yesterday, in Europe and the impending fiscal cliff.
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e_jeepin
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:43:48 PM

I should have sold everything the day before the election like my gut told me. I got clobbered today.


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jeskibuff
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:42:28 PM

citygasman said: "He has not done it yet, I cannot see him changing."

He will be changing, but not for the better. He has little reason to hold back now, as he has a guaranteed 4 more years in which he can implement his grand schemes.

I don't think we're going to get a 2-days-in-a-row hammering of the DOW like we did in 2008 because that was mainly a reaction of fear and the stunning acknowledgement that we allowed a socialist with dubious credentials into the White House. The changes that took place were painful, but not shockingly painful. Sadly, we aren't as revolted by the coming of QE3 even though we saw QE2 and QE1 as wastes of prodigious amounts of taxpayer money with paltry benefits, if any. What's another TRILLION after Obozo has already blown FIVE TRILLION, eh? So the shock is out of our system...we're becoming numb to the pain. We had a little hope for redemption, accounting for Tuesday's upswing in the Dow, but our hopes have been dashed. The emotion is gone...now it's time just to sit back and watch the country decay.
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101Speedster
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:32:23 PM

>>Gridlock is the best we can expect for the next four years. The worst would be to have the spineless GOP wimps surrender without a fight, as has been their pattern in recent decades.<<

I am afraid you are right, Panama19. We really can't afford to let our fiscal crisis get worse, though.

BTW, today was the worst stock market drop this year.
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citygasman
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:28:36 PM

You hit it on the head jeskibuff.
I am holding out hope, but I remember where hope got me when Obama was elected in 2008.
A socialist/marxist Obama will never come to the middle for the good of the country.

He has not done it yet, I cannot see him changing.
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jeskibuff
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:24:51 PM

Well, the market closed down 312.95. Not quite the beating I had predicted, but a substantial beating nonetheless.

In addition to that prediction, I also could have (but failed to) voice a prediction how the MSM would attempt to attribute the cause of the plunge to ANYTHING but Obozo's victory. They started out with the situation in Greece, but when that didn't seem to be a good enough excuse they added in the worries about the fiscal cliff.

It's not like we didn't know about "the cliff". It's been a major topic for months now. So they want us to believe that all of a sudden (coincidentally) on the day after Obozo's win that investors FINALLY panicked? If that's the case, we should see continuous panic mode for days to come until we either go over the cliff or the issue is resolved.

But we all know the reason why the market tanked, don't we? Some just refuse to admit the cold reality that their choice for president is incompetent, a failure and the worst mistake this country's ever made.

[Edited by: jeskibuff at 11/7/2012 5:29:39 PM EST]
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citygasman
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:18:11 PM

My guess, and talking with my stock broker the market looks like it could take a 20% correction.

I found it interesting that he says I should but stock in Canada and sell off the majority of my stock and put the rest in bonds.

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citygasman
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 5:14:24 PM

One day is not a trend, and any reference to 2008 election is not accurate.

A different time.

lets see what it is on Nov 30th.
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cbuck80
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 4:29:40 PM

Going down
what floor?
The basement please!
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Panama19
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 4:09:09 PM


worryfree, "The drop is no doubt due to the Repubs holding the house and the intransigence that will continue"

I think you are half way there. The GOP intransigence in keeping the government from a Greek tragedy coupled with the Dem intransigence in wanting to pursue its policy of class warfare almost guarantees that we will go over the fiscal cliff and destroy our military in wartime.

The Dems have shown no capacity for compromise for the past four years, and there is no reason to suspect they will start now.

Gridlock is the best we can expect for the next four years. The worst would be to have the spineless GOP wimps surrender without a fight, as has been their pattern in recent decades.

Folks are pulling their money out of the market while they can before it collapses.


[Edited by: Panama19 at 11/7/2012 4:12:37 PM EST]
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101Speedster
Champion Author Ventura

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 4:06:10 PM

Actually, today was not quite as bad as the day after Obama was elected the first time. Four years ago, the DOW dropped 486 points.

If only . . .
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citygasman
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 4:00:14 PM

worry likes to rub it in, that is O.K that is his right.

I am holding out a little, I do not think Obama can go away from his socialist/marxist agenda and move to the middle.
Obama is a idealog and narccist.
It is just the facts.
I held out hope in Jan 2009, and he proved me right. The guy has no intention to work with the republicans.
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teacher_tim
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 3:51:10 PM

worryfree,
You won. Can you stop the mudslinging and contribute something productive? Or are you stuck in Excuse Mode? Maybe a shot of WD-40 would help?
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EKEugene
All-Star Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 3:38:00 PM


Point well taken, Zim. Now would be a good time to buy.
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Zimcity
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 3:30:47 PM

Just got an email from my Edward Jones financial advisor, thought I would share a pertinent bit here:

"The election results were a major lesson in the fallacy of making decisions based on short-term predictions -- they remind us of the reasons we avoid short-term investment predictions. But the election resolved some uncertainty, and that's good news for investors, even with some short-term volatility going forward. Historically, stocks have gained an average of 4.4% during the final two months of presidential election years, so don't let your reaction to the election keep you on the sidelines."
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Zimcity
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 12:18:01 PM

The gains over the last 3 years.

The recovery from the abyss of March 2009, as already mentioned by EKEugene.

Markets are cyclical, as are politics.
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EKEugene
All-Star Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 12:14:13 PM


>> The huge plummet that happened for 2 days in a row...
The huge drop that occurred the week prior ...
The huge drop on Inauguration Day... <<


A Day Trader mentality. Lost in the trees, can't see the forest.

Good luck with that.
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worryfree
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 12:08:05 PM

The drop is no doubt due to the Repubs holding the house and the intransigence that will continue.
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jeskibuff
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 12:06:40 PM

Zimcity said: "Clearly the stock market reacts to ALL the news all over the world, not just some fantasy that reelecting Obama is instantly causing a stock market decline."

Look at the patterns and it's unmistakable.

The huge plummet that happened for 2 days in a row when Obozo was first elected.

The huge drop that occurred the week prior to his inauguration.

The huge drop on Inauguration Day.

Add to that his dismal record over the last (almost) 4 years, the impending fiscal cliff, the fact that he's so anti-business, the dire verdict that he's too incompetent to fix ANYTHING and the disappointment that we could have had someone who HAD verifiable talent to fix things...add it all up and you have the inevitable...today's plunge in the market is no coincidence!
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jeskibuff
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 12:01:00 PM

Down 328.74 right now (with 15-minute delay). Looks like my prediction may turn out to be pretty accurate. Still half a day to go!
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EKEugene
All-Star Author North Carolina

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 11:45:43 AM


>> And it happened. The Dow was driven down from over 9,000 in Novemebr 2008 to 6,600 in March 2009. With the 'forward' direction of our new government it makes little sense to work where others do not and receive the same benefits. <<

Nice try with the out-of-context snapshot starting from Random Point A, but a quick scan of the DJIA history puts the lie to that.

The market started sliding from a high of 13058 in the late spring of 2008 (the same time the unemployment rate started climbing) and it continued to slide until that low of 6547 in March '09. Ever since then (two months into the present administration) it's been in recovery.

You seem to have conveniently forgotten the first six months that took it down. Obama didn't even take office until near the END of that slide. But picking an arbitrary starting point in the middle of an already-established trend is just disingenuous.


(AFSNCO- Ha! But keep in mind, legalization is more likely to drive usage down, not up)


[Edited by: EKEugene at 11/7/2012 11:48:41 AM EST]
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Zimcity
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 11:41:27 AM

"But yet so many on the left blame Bush policies for the recession. It was a global recession that hit everywhere. No matter who was the president it was going to happen. Too many countries running up too much debt and it hit at one time."

True that, I like me some Fritos, though you'd have to invest in PepsiCo as FritoLay has been part of PepsiCo since 1965.
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AFSNCO
Champion Author Montgomery

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 11:27:01 AM

But invest in Frito Lay soon because it is going to go way up with all the people with the munchies in Colorado and Washington.
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AFSNCO
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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 11:26:22 AM

Zim, exactly my point. But yet so many on the left blame Bush policies for the recession. It was a global recession that hit everywhere. No matter who was the president it was going to happen. Too many countries running up too much debt and it hit at one time.
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Zimcity
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 11:17:09 AM

Not sure what Bush has to do with the European recession, AFSNCO.

Clearly the stock market reacts to ALL the news all over the world, not just some fantasy that reelecting Obama is instantly causing a stock market decline. Is it a factor, sure, but please don't even attempt to say it's the only one.

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AFSNCO
Champion Author Montgomery

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 10:58:48 AM

"The big early drop seems to be more a result of European news of a broad recession than the re-election of President Obama."

But Bush policies caused the recession, right? LOL...you guys are amazing!
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AFSNCO
Champion Author Montgomery

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 10:58:06 AM

Song on the direction of the market today!
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jeskibuff
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Nov 7, 2012 10:47:07 AM

Down 238.16 right now. A repeat of the 2008 victory. Quite predictable.
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