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Author	Topic: Your past oil price predictions... were you right?	Post a Reply Back to Topics

PD Moderator	Message Posted: May 21, 2010 1:35:01 PM Ignore PD Report Abuse Since this blog deals with a lot of forecasting and prediction, its always fun to go back in time and see how accurate those forecasts and predictions were. For today, we'll dig up the results of a poll that you may have taken in 2008, asking you about how high you thought oil prices would go. In April of 2008, the question we asked you was "How high will the price of a barrel of oil go this year?" The results, as of all of our polls, are very interesting. For this one, about one in four, or ~26% got the answer right when they voted for "More than $140". The results of that poll are below: $120 was voted by 10% of respondents $125 was voted by 15% of respondents $130 was voted by 17% of respondents Visit GasBuddy Blog for full article

Moderator

Message Posted: May 21, 2010 1:35:01 PM

Ignore PD Report Abuse

Since this blog deals with a lot of forecasting and prediction, its always fun to go back in time and see how accurate those forecasts and predictions were. For today, we'll dig up the results of a poll that you may have taken in 2008, asking you about how high you thought oil prices would go.

In April of 2008, the question we asked you was "How high will the price of a barrel of oil go this year?" The results, as of all of our polls, are very interesting. For this one, about one in four, or ~26% got the answer right when they voted for "More than $140".

The results of that poll are below:
$120 was voted by 10% of respondents
$125 was voted by 15% of respondents
$130 was voted by 17% of respondents
Visit GasBuddy Blog for full article

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99dakota Champion Author Providence Posts:8,092 Points:2,169,000 Joined:Oct 2006	Message Posted: Apr 23, 2013 6:01:08 AM Ignore 99dakota Report Abuse prices dropped way down by the end of the year
WanderDan All-Star Author Dayton Posts:585 Points:141,210 Joined:Nov 2012	Message Posted: Apr 18, 2013 9:21:59 AM Ignore WanderDan Report Abuse prices go up.. we accept and then they stay up
priver Veteran Author Alberta Posts:403 Points:33,435 Joined:Apr 2013	Message Posted: Apr 18, 2013 8:58:58 AM Ignore priver Report Abuse looking at the #'s, we want higher prices...priceless!!
kennyman Sophomore Author Alberta Posts:200 Points:53,465 Joined:Jun 2007	Message Posted: Apr 18, 2013 12:59:25 AM Ignore kennyman Report Abuse Interesting.
werich44 Champion Author California Posts:1,837 Points:464,955 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Apr 17, 2013 7:28:19 AM Ignore werich44 Report Abuse No surprises here.
lesandliz Sophomore Author New Orleans Posts:190 Points:349,875 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: Apr 16, 2013 9:11:10 PM Ignore lesandliz Report Abuse Greedy oil companies...
WanderDan All-Star Author Dayton Posts:585 Points:141,210 Joined:Nov 2012	Message Posted: Apr 11, 2013 11:35:33 PM Ignore WanderDan Report Abuse prices will rise and rise
Tommyguns45 Sophomore Author Illinois Posts:212 Points:129,605 Joined:Feb 2012	Message Posted: Apr 11, 2013 8:56:33 AM Ignore Tommyguns45 Report Abuse Im right every time. Gas raises the first of the month to get those on a Pension or SS.
WanderDan All-Star Author Dayton Posts:585 Points:141,210 Joined:Nov 2012	Message Posted: Mar 22, 2013 11:53:34 AM Ignore WanderDan Report Abuse prices will be whatever "they" want them to be
rickfro All-Star Author San Diego Posts:678 Points:327,520 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: Mar 21, 2013 9:59:58 PM Ignore rickfro Report Abuse Let's see how low we can get it to go.
theocean Rookie Author New York Posts:35 Points:179,615 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Mar 21, 2013 8:50:21 PM Ignore theocean Report Abuse blah blah blah
Pete12 Champion Author Albany Posts:4,864 Points:1,641,325 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Mar 21, 2013 8:35:58 PM Ignore Pete12 Report Abuse Who cares what happened in 2008.
pawnkingfour All-Star Author Georgia Posts:546 Points:137,765 Joined:Dec 2011	Message Posted: Mar 21, 2013 8:33:12 PM Ignore pawnkingfour Report Abuse Money, Money, Money! Boy, I got lots of competition.
lesandliz Sophomore Author New Orleans Posts:190 Points:349,875 Joined:Aug 2011	Message Posted: Mar 21, 2013 7:45:44 PM Ignore lesandliz Report Abuse I don't know who's more greedy the Oil company or our elected officals
Coco0828 All-Star Author Dallas Posts:980 Points:159,265 Joined:Aug 2012	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2013 12:34:00 PM Ignore Coco0828 Report Abuse greed never goes away
MiataPrincess All-Star Author Des Moines Posts:603 Points:96,300 Joined:Feb 2013	Message Posted: Mar 18, 2013 9:57:00 AM Ignore MiataPrincess Report Abuse they will keep increasing...greed never goes away
csh7586 Champion Author Wilmington Posts:4,772 Points:845,045 Joined:Dec 2010	Message Posted: Feb 26, 2013 7:16:38 PM Ignore csh7586 Report Abuse Don't go by me. I am always wrong. With that said, I predict prices rising this spring.
LanguageMan1 Champion Author Tampa Posts:11,702 Points:1,657,790 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 28, 2010 4:22:35 PM Ignore LanguageMan1 Report Abuse No, they'll trend higher yet again for the year; they've not hit their peak. Plus oil and gas both will be up past $150 and $4.50 a gallon here in the US within two to four years max. Don't be surprised to see $170 and $220 for a barrel of oil and $8, $10 and more for a gallon of gasoline.
SteveSeattle All-Star Author Seattle Posts:540 Points:170,130 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: May 25, 2010 10:48:48 AM Ignore SteveSeattle Report Abuse Same as predicting the stock market.
mnorthwood13 Champion Author Michigan Posts:1,385 Points:761,235 Joined:Apr 2010	Message Posted: May 24, 2010 12:50:55 AM Ignore mnorthwood13 Report Abuse I'm very surprised that Oil/Gas in general is still going down, almost a month around here. So I was way off. Hopefully I stay off because have to drive 2,000 to and from Virgina this summer.
Bonanza Champion Author Boston Posts:12,063 Points:2,547,005 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: May 23, 2010 8:07:09 PM Ignore Bonanza Report Abuse It's a shot in the dark, trying to predict correct price.
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,580 Points:1,605,520 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 23, 2010 12:04:34 AM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse we know 2008 has passed. Can we move forward w/out speculation of what the future will hold?
Blue48 Champion Author Illinois Posts:7,290 Points:1,634,920 Joined:Feb 2007	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 9:28:30 PM Ignore Blue48 Report Abuse GUESS I MISSED THAT ONE!
honda0105 Champion Author Tallahassee Posts:18,580 Points:1,605,520 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 5:24:36 PM Ignore honda0105 Report Abuse tomok: you're right. The only thing for certain in life are taxes, pump/oil prices rising in the long run and death.
tomok Champion Author Portland Posts:32,917 Points:2,341,510 Joined:Aug 2006	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 9:19:19 AM Ignore tomok Report Abuse When trying to predict what big oil, the refineries and the speculators will do with the price of oil, you will never know. But the oil and fuel prices are sure to go up.
JOHNNY95206 Champion Author Stockton Posts:3,107 Points:356,105 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 5:08:03 AM Ignore JOHNNY95206 Report Abuse The price of oil will go down, maybe down as far as $20 bbl. Think anybody is listening. (ha ha)
10k Champion Author North Carolina Posts:21,221 Points:2,250,020 Joined:May 2006	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 3:28:03 AM Ignore 10k Report Abuse May 2010: world-wide depression is on the way..
findcheap Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:9,577 Points:2,005,875 Joined:Apr 2007	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 3:17:42 AM Ignore findcheap Report Abuse just guessing
Bubba44612 Champion Author Ohio Posts:7,376 Points:1,873,080 Joined:Aug 2005	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 3:13:21 AM Ignore Bubba44612 Report Abuse Interesting.
RENEGADEGAS Champion Author Missouri Posts:14,888 Points:1,587,225 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 3:02:59 AM Ignore RENEGADEGAS Report Abuse Thanks PD. Interesting.
la90042 Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:2,402 Points:505,405 Joined:Nov 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 3:00:56 AM Ignore la90042 Report Abuse prices were higher back then -- will go higher again
EcoVore Champion Author Los Angeles Posts:3,538 Points:728,775 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:57:43 AM Ignore EcoVore Report Abuse Lower is good.
comprof Champion Author Houston Posts:6,839 Points:1,352,750 Joined:Jul 2009	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:56:59 AM Ignore comprof Report Abuse 16 % out of 4 questions is random change. Worthless survey and article.
CiVX Champion Author Oakland Posts:7,044 Points:1,356,785 Joined:Feb 2009	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:50:38 AM Ignore CiVX Report Abuse ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzz!
AuburnTim Champion Author Indiana Posts:6,828 Points:1,559,190 Joined:May 2005	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:45:45 AM Ignore AuburnTim Report Abuse When big businesses such as big oil are allowed to do as they please and have no regard for rules and regulations polls mean nothing.
OnTheWater Champion Author Orange County Posts:2,123 Points:623,130 Joined:Nov 2009	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:39:19 AM Ignore OnTheWater Report Abuse You can predict and forecast all you want, but oil will do what it wants and unless we put those greedy speculator's out of work they will just keep thinking up excuses to make oil rise higher and higher!!!
raleightom All-Star Author Raleigh Posts:765 Points:215,710 Joined:Nov 2007	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:37:47 AM Ignore raleightom Report Abuse I think it could go as low as $40 if the EU ends up in a recession. If the global economy recovers by year ens; then, I would expect to see #100. I think gasoline prices are a totally different topic. Will be interesting to watch and see how the new regulations regarding speculation of petroleum products affects petroleum and gasoline ;)
jadeusa Champion Author Dallas Posts:9,315 Points:1,820,990 Joined:Sep 2005	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:37:12 AM Ignore jadeusa Report Abuse Hopefully we have hit our high price mark with crude already this year.
speedys Champion Author Utah Posts:6,995 Points:2,554,845 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:33:38 AM Ignore speedys Report Abuse I a with you "DEG".
rwm1 Champion Author Iowa Posts:2,304 Points:1,542,400 Joined:Oct 2007	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:32:06 AM Ignore rwm1 Report Abuse I think I said 125. I agree with you mesovich. With speculators still running rampant, its impossible to guess where it will go. I don't think oil will be going up with the public opinion scrutinizing BP and other Big Oil companies. Too risky for them to be mucking up prices.
mvosevich Champion Author St. Louis Posts:5,489 Points:1,115,410 Joined:Aug 2004	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:22:08 AM Ignore mvosevich Report Abuse ALL predictions of this nature are a waste of time.
genef01 Champion Author Nashville Posts:2,611 Points:834,680 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:17:15 AM Ignore genef01 Report Abuse I thnk we will see it over $110.00 before the year's end.
GMVAN Champion Author Calgary Posts:6,730 Points:1,393,555 Joined:Apr 2009	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:12:49 AM Ignore GMVAN Report Abuse We don`t want to see the prices up there again.
CPGas1815 Champion Author Michigan Posts:6,027 Points:1,099,605 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:11:45 AM Ignore CPGas1815 Report Abuse Gas prices in my locale have certainly not decreased anywhere near the percentage decrease the wholesale price of gasoline has decreased. Local gas prices are almost 40 cents greater than the lowest posted price in my state and 16 cents greater than the state average. 50 miles to the southwest along the Michigan/Wisconsin border, gas prices are 16 cents less than local prices and a whopping 22 cents less than they are in Green Bay, WI. The last thing Michigan residents need to endure is the manipulation of gas prices by one segment or another of the oil industry.
zeddieiv Champion Author Columbia Posts:5,740 Points:1,504,905 Joined:Oct 2006	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:11:09 AM Ignore zeddieiv Report Abuse or less, DEG
DEG Champion Author Las Vegas Posts:17,605 Points:3,491,680 Joined:Jul 2003	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:09:25 AM Ignore DEG Report Abuse Still does not negate the fact that oil shoud be priced between $40 and $45 per barrel.
Romey08 Champion Author Virginia Posts:6,311 Points:1,436,490 Joined:Apr 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 2:01:43 AM Ignore Romey08 Report Abuse everyone predicts the worst it becomes better news
RENEGADEGAS Champion Author Missouri Posts:14,888 Points:1,587,225 Joined:Jul 2008	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 1:54:20 AM Ignore RENEGADEGAS Report Abuse Very true! LOL!!
1Casey Champion Author Albany Posts:6,513 Points:1,789,010 Joined:Jun 2004	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 1:51:22 AM Ignore 1Casey Report Abuse Poll or survey, how accurate ?
HA4CNN Champion Author Toronto Posts:5,604 Points:1,539,490 Joined:Dec 2006	Message Posted: May 22, 2010 1:50:52 AM Ignore HA4CNN Report Abuse It is a fact of speculative life that the market goes higher on the upside and lower on the down side than it should.