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Author Topic: What If Tesla Took 500,000 Gas-Guzzlers Off the Road? Back to Topics
goalie1950

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Message Posted: Aug 18, 2013 10:59:29 AM

Last quarter, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA ) delivered 5,150 cars, which was well above its expectations of 4,500 deliveries. The company did so by boosting its production rate by 25% to 500 per week. If everything goes according to plan, the company's deliveries for its award-winning Model S could reach an annualized rate of 40,000 by the end next year, which is nearly double this year's expected rate.
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millerin
Champion Author Orlando

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 11:22:23 PM

but what if didn't
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TruthMatters
Champion Author New Jersey

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 10:19:36 PM

But need to take the fatties off the road first!
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andy1024
Champion Author Allentown

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 8:50:31 PM

If the range is doubled to 500 ~ 600 miles, the car couldn't be more attractive.
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SVmike
Champion Author California

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 7:41:40 PM

>> how many people can afford the car that cost upward $60,000 price tag???

All of the 1% can.
So they pay these high prices and suffer through all the early adopter pains. And they finance Tesla's move into a $40K car. And they sell even more of them and they finance the next $30K car.

We need those people in the 1%. Else who else would be buying a $60K car?
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DOS
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 6:58:32 PM

The 500,000 cars per year does sound like a tall order for a start-up but the 40,000 cars next year might be possible and once they get that far along the 500,000 goal starts looking more likely.

Nice analysis orphancarguyPE! I didn't know about the Tesla supercharger stations using solar power, but I'm not sure that in most markets they can "make money" from generating and selling their excess power. Net-metering laws normally limit sales back to the break even level.
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DanMtz
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 6:44:13 PM

Maybe in a decade or two.
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PDQBlues
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 4:53:14 PM


MadFueler: 500,000 a year is a tall order, but Tesla has overcome a lot so far, and have steadily increased their business while surprising a lot of conventional thinkers. Definitely not a bubble.

Very true, MadFueler.
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MadFueler
Champion Author Winston-Salem

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:29:52 PM

500,000 a year is a tall order, but Tesla has overcome a lot so far, and have steadily increased their business while surprising a lot of conventional thinkers. Definitely not a bubble.
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vandamme
Champion Author New York

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:01:37 PM

People getting 13.6 MPG are not going to buy Teslas. But thanks for the interesting thought.

Get them to buy diesels instead.
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endymion
Champion Author New York

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 10:05:48 AM

Great news - just what we need to reduce oil consumption.
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orphancarguyPE
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 9:47:43 AM

Besides, the biggest kick in the butt to those 'grid fail' moaners is that the Tesla system of Superchargers is going on the solar PV panel (Elon Musk knows something about that as in Solar City) model, and they will be able to offer charging to Tesla owners for FREE because it will be only the part of the electricity their Supercharger stations produce and store---the rest will be sold to utilities for a profit to Tesla and that will INCREASE grid power, not take grid power.

Think it through--the MORE Teslas on the road charging up for FREE, the MORE electric power there will be put into the grid! The network will be transcontinental in about 6 months, and complete coverage is just a year to 18-24 months away.
http://www.teslamotors.com/en_CA/supercharger

I just took a 7000+ mile trip in an efficient diesel--and it cost me $570 in fuel. If I had driven my previous Jeep Cherokee, it would have cost me about $1600. Same trip in a Tesla as of next year? ZERO, likely.
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orphancarguyPE
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 9:22:29 AM

You might like to think of 500,000 Teslas as cumulative, not 500,000 PER YEAR (not yet)

50% increase in overall production year over year for a start up? No government debt? Capitalization higher than many other car corporations? Owning all their own patents and technology? Leasing/licensing their technology for share sales/income such as the in the Smart EV (Tesla power train) and the Toyota RAV-4 EV (Tesla power train)? Solid history of principals behind the company KNOWING what they are doing, achieving it, and MAKING MONEY doing it? [Elon Musk...Paypal, Solar City, Tesla, Space-X etc]

Now, to shoot down most of the wild-eyed crazy comments that come out about about electrics:
1) 'They'll collapse the grid!' No they won't. Google IMPACTS ASSESSMENT OF PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES ON ELECTRIC UTILITIES AND REGIONAL U.S. POWER GRIDS PART 1: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS and read facts and science.
2) 'You are just changing from gasoline to coal' Um, no. Its only a problem (coal electricity) in some parts of the US, and its fading fast, down from over 41% to about 35% in a few years, replaced by a) natural gas b) higher efficiency replacement plants using less fuel overall c) higher efficiency and d) renewables hydro/ solar/ wind turbines. Many parts of the US where electric/plug-in hybrid sales are strongest are very high in renewables already, so 'your argument is invalid'. Replacing domestic electricity for IMPORTED OIL is a huge net benefit, and the US still imports 35% of its oil. Besides, the efficiency of an electric for traction purposes is up to 400% better than a fuel vehicle.
3) 'they take forever to charge and the COST!!' Um, no. Tesla has just on- the-fly upgraded their Supercharger stations from 80kW to 120 kW, which means the FREE 20 minute charge doesn't give you a 50% charge, but a 2/3 charge. So, every 2 and a half hours you stop for a bathroom break or just a stretch, grab a coffee and a snack, and check for messages on the free Wifi, and get back in for another 2 and a half hours drive. Repeat for as long as you can stand it. Right now, even driving 800 miles a day with two drivers, we still stop ever hour and half, to do all that, and it always takes 20 minutes even without refueling. Besides, with an electric car and just going suburban/local/commuting, just plugging in every time you stop just like a parking meter means you keep topping up all the time. There are handy little apps on cell phones now that direct you to the closest charge point to where you are going. Perhaps you can't do it at EVERY stop but you would be surprised. I don't even have an electric yet but I am simply gobsmacked how many there are. I figured out that if I had a Volt or a Leaf, let alone a Tesla, I would never have to put a gallon in month after month.


[Edited by: orphancarguyPE at 8/19/2013 9:27:59 AM EST]
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investmentdr
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 8:26:23 AM

500,000 teslas on the road is a hyper[pipe] dream
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batloverNM
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 7:23:09 AM

More EVs and plug-in hybrids mean less gasoline used in the USA which makes more gasoline availible for export. Exports are GOOD for the US economy!
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Ltdc
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 6:53:25 AM

What will be, will be.
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leeac
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 6:18:40 AM

EVs are here to stay.
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grandpadon28110
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 6:01:50 AM

Go.
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Straitliner
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 5:54:56 AM

What if the Cubs could win the world series?
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MyRedSky
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 4:52:27 AM

they make a car people like, people buy the car. works for me.
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djgunrunner
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 4:00:19 AM

And then they woke up and found out that it was a wonderful dream while they were going belly up.
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ClarkSC
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 3:25:07 AM

Never happen.
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FluffyDogAttack
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 3:08:22 AM

What if? Then gas taxes would fly through the roof. Don't doubt it.
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UseLessGasFolks
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 3:05:01 AM


Very cool car.
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moenkopi23
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:57:22 AM

If Tesla would sell their cars at an affordable price.....
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sprocketsplines
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:43:55 AM

Will be interesting if a glut of the award-winning Model S never occurs with an annualized rate of 40,000 deliveries by the end of next year.
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stratlinetime
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:36:20 AM

Wow, a whole lotta what ifs.........
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Wally3023
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:34:50 AM

Good to know
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defcon7
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:33:38 AM

What if the moon were made of cheese? So they delivered 5000. How many where actually purchased, 100?
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SilliesRock
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:33:24 AM

What if pigs could fly/ What if the author of this story wasn't a brainless idiot? Then this article wouldn't exist. If only...
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gasmack
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:28:11 AM

Hmmm......
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mrjames1818
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:25:40 AM

A big what-if but not likely - be careful - there are always unintended consequences
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billybopWI
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:24:07 AM

what if? the biggest scientific question known to mankind.
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SHEP20715
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:22:59 AM

They can have mine
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Lbro
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:22:11 AM

Go electric! Yeah!
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speedys
Champion Author Utah

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:20:52 AM

THERE ISN'T ENOUGH OF A MARKET FOR THAT MANY CARS.
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Happytalk
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:18:39 AM

i will take one
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camel1
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:18:00 AM

Sounds good if the market exists for this expensive car
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iFueler
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:17:45 AM


     we will see
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WeiberBlitz
All-Star Author Indianapolis

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:15:32 AM

It's a "bold dream" that would likely to cause petro companies to increase prices for their "survival." Like banks, they'll be declared, "too big too fail."
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Retowered
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:12:28 AM

Sounds good to me, but I can't afford one.
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greshams
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:08:54 AM

sounds like it will be good idea if prices come down.
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OHMS
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:01:59 AM

DREAMER schemer which will it be?
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Settjec
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:01:38 AM

The would have to start with OBUMMERS limo first!!!!!!
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Topless2012
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 2:00:40 AM

government motors would be in deep stuff.
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shephle
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:59:53 AM

Dream on
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PetroScopper
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:58:21 AM

I think that would prompt more people to buy EVs. Also, I believe Tesla would probably build a lower-priced vehicle to reach more consumers... this would certainly be huge for consumers and automakers in the United States.
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rd2000
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:56:24 AM

yes I would love one too
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BALRSTATUS
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:55:01 AM

I want one
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k54frog
Champion Author California

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:54:20 AM

Hmmm...what if...
1-they would be even richer
2-their stockholders would probably be very happy
3-they would be getting very concerned about the sustainability of sales and the size of their bubble
Hmmm...what if our government were to become truly accountable...hmmm...
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Ready Eddie
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2013 1:54:00 AM

at what cost?
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