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Author	Topic: Geologist's provocative study challenges popular assumptions about 'fracking'	Post a Reply Back to Topics

Nicoalbum Champion Author Ottawa Posts:6,169 Points:1,216,725 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:32:56 AM Ignore Nicoalbum Report Abuse With debate over hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” running at a fever pitch, it seems the only thing everyone can agree on is that there is plenty of natural gas down there for the taking. Now a provocative analysis of unconventional fuel reserves in the United States aims to slap a big question mark over that assumption. In a comprehensive look at all the major shale gas plays, the study focuses on the rapid decline of individual gas wells, along with entire fields, and concludes that optimistic projections for a long-running boom that will unleash cheap gas for decades to come are unwarranted. It’s not that shale gas isn’t abundant, but that fracking only releases gas from a small volume of rock. And apart from a few “sweet spots,” much of the overall reserve is of marginal qualit Visit The Globe and Mail for full article

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:32:56 AM

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With debate over hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” running at a fever pitch, it seems the only thing everyone can agree on is that there is plenty of natural gas down there for the taking.

Now a provocative analysis of unconventional fuel reserves in the United States aims to slap a big question mark over that assumption. In a comprehensive look at all the major shale gas plays, the study focuses on the rapid decline of individual gas wells, along with entire fields, and concludes that optimistic projections for a long-running boom that will unleash cheap gas for decades to come are unwarranted.

It’s not that shale gas isn’t abundant, but that fracking only releases gas from a small volume of rock. And apart from a few “sweet spots,” much of the overall reserve is of marginal qualit
Visit The Globe and Mail for full article

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LetemEatCake Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:5,671 Points:1,230,030 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Feb 22, 2013 12:14:00 AM Ignore LetemEatCake Report Abuse Good article, thanks for posting!
52MPG Champion Author Dayton Posts:7,407 Points:1,770,380 Joined:Apr 2006	Message Posted: Feb 21, 2013 5:45:47 AM Ignore 52MPG Report Abuse Who knows? Time will tell.
NHLiveFree Champion Author New Hampshire Posts:11,307 Points:1,651,065 Joined:Jun 2008	Message Posted: Feb 21, 2013 12:11:55 AM Ignore NHLiveFree Report Abuse Of course the industry, the API, and speculators have certainly done an incredible PR job on convincing the world of the 'unending abundance' lie.
LetemEatCake Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:5,671 Points:1,230,030 Joined:Mar 2008	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:31:41 PM Ignore LetemEatCake Report Abuse Good article...unfortunately too few readers! Keep em' coming.
PDQBlues Champion Author San Diego Posts:7,214 Points:1,476,025 Joined:Jan 2009	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:27:01 PM Ignore PDQBlues Report Abuse Fracking: the next financial bubble ready to burst. But this one comes at a steep cost to our drinking water, our environment and our heath.
humblepie Champion Author Toledo Posts:35,368 Points:2,400,045 Joined:Mar 2006	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 6:13:38 PM Ignore humblepie Report Abuse so much ado about nothing
BobBG All-Star Author Albany Posts:823 Points:828,845 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 2:20:29 PM Ignore BobBG Report Abuse My grandfather taught me that if something seems too good to be true it probably is.
evowner Champion Author Salem Posts:2,323 Points:386,960 Joined:May 2012	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 2:02:04 PM Ignore evowner Report Abuse Now that's a new slant on fracking!
MadFueler Champion Author Winston-Salem Posts:1,084 Points:200,960 Joined:Sep 2012	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 1:29:42 PM Ignore MadFueler Report Abuse When conventional wells played out, fracking came along. When fracking is played out, something else will come along - yes, probably requiring more effort and expense, but never underestimate he power or American ingenuity. Of course, we should get some renewables up our sleeve, too.
naspa Champion Author Cleveland Posts:1,417 Points:380,600 Joined:Jan 2012	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 12:44:51 PM Ignore naspa Report Abuse Stop fracking forever!
orphancarguyPE Champion Author PEI Posts:3,910 Points:759,175 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 12:00:50 PM Ignore orphancarguyPE Report Abuse This is NOT absolutely new, but this has been circulating around for a while for anyone who wanted to dig out the information and ignore all the 'happy-clappy' PR puffery from oil and gas companies wanting to entice more marks...errr...'savvy investors'. 'Skempton' below points out the HUGE difference between conventional oil and gas wells, and new fracked wells. Not only were they cheaper in the old days, but with care and management they could still be producing 30--40--50 years or more. The supergiant oilfields in Saudi Arabia are (with one relatively minor exception) in operation more than 62 years, and some are over 70 years in operation. Texas oil enjoyed a similar long life due to the policies and regulations of the Texas Railroad Commission (for different reasons, but it was a serendipidous discovery) What has been assumed was that fracked gas as an example, would last half as long or provide half the gas, of a conventional well, so the breakeven price would be double conventional, at say $4 instead of $2. The wells are much more expensive than planned and do not last as long or produce as much, so the cost is heading for $8 or higher, and that is for the VERY BEST plays going. A extensive university study in Texas a couple of years ago estimated the 2020 cost at the Henry Hub at $6.50-$7.50, but already this appears to be our of date. Oil from fracking has similar limitations as natural gas. There is LOTS of oil and natural gas from fracking available, but by its very structure, there will never be long lived low overhead cost wells producing for many decades, and there are no gushers ever in fracking. The true long term high cost will be sobering for both--they both has very poor ERoEI once you more away from the very richest plays in small parts of the Eagle Ford (NG) and small portions of the Bakken (oil).
Buckeyee Champion Author Maine Posts:4,779 Points:925,300 Joined:May 2010	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:44:34 AM Ignore Buckeyee Report Abuse The pres said the very same thing about oil, there isn't enough of it to last. He could never be wrong, could he ?
peakkeller Champion Author Colorado Springs Posts:1,760 Points:791,625 Joined:Dec 2009	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:34:11 AM Ignore peakkeller Report Abuse This is the second scientist I've read say this...
lesabreAZ Champion Author Phoenix Posts:1,819 Points:438,945 Joined:Nov 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:00:45 AM Ignore lesabreAZ Report Abuse Frak Him
fjkcpa Champion Author Houston Posts:4,761 Points:629,910 Joined:Nov 2005	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:58:55 AM Ignore fjkcpa Report Abuse "They can't put anything on the Internet that isn't true."
teenitup Champion Author Houston Posts:1,847 Points:276,885 Joined:Sep 2012	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:35:17 AM Ignore teenitup Report Abuse Was not this the assumption all along?
Joeski1 Champion Author New Jersey Posts:10,217 Points:1,770,510 Joined:Dec 2004	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:24:15 AM Ignore Joeski1 Report Abuse boom ... bust.... boom.... bust..... everytime we have a boom... it takes away what we'll never get back..... and the busts last longer and longer and grow deeper each time.... nothing sustainable here.... gotta go with what's plentiful and been around a billion years and always will be... the water, the wind, the sun, and the earth..... hydro, wind, solar, and GEO-thermal.... [Edited by: Joeski1 at 2/20/2013 10:24:47 AM EST]
mastermariner Champion Author Texas Posts:4,844 Points:522,300 Joined:Jun 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:23:38 AM Ignore mastermariner Report Abuse Too much money involved to stop
gasmeup52 Champion Author Missouri Posts:1,465 Points:710,485 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:14:17 AM Ignore gasmeup52 Report Abuse Ok.
fedupMN Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:3,095 Points:599,955 Joined:Mar 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:54:03 AM Ignore fedupMN Report Abuse OK
Suzzoom Champion Author Nevada Posts:2,503 Points:533,655 Joined:Jan 2011	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:46:21 AM Ignore Suzzoom Report Abuse Doesn't surprise me. They have to project big returns in order to get investors.
skempton Champion Author Vermont Posts:1,275 Points:864,160 Joined:Apr 2010	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:36:00 AM Ignore skempton Report Abuse Have a gas well in WV that is still producing after 40 years.
Nicoalbum Champion Author Ottawa Posts:6,169 Points:1,216,725 Joined:Jan 2010	Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:34:47 AM Ignore Nicoalbum Report Abuse I always suspected that there is something terribly wrong with the shale gas reserves. It has been known for decades, that shale gas is unessential source of potential energy supply [Edited by: Nicoalbum at 2/20/2013 9:35:14 AM EST]