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Author Topic: Geologist's provocative study challenges popular assumptions about 'fracking' Back to Topics
Nicoalbum

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:32:56 AM

With debate over hydraulic fracturing or “fracking” running at a fever pitch, it seems the only thing everyone can agree on is that there is plenty of natural gas down there for the taking.

Now a provocative analysis of unconventional fuel reserves in the United States aims to slap a big question mark over that assumption. In a comprehensive look at all the major shale gas plays, the study focuses on the rapid decline of individual gas wells, along with entire fields, and concludes that optimistic projections for a long-running boom that will unleash cheap gas for decades to come are unwarranted.

It’s not that shale gas isn’t abundant, but that fracking only releases gas from a small volume of rock. And apart from a few “sweet spots,” much of the overall reserve is of marginal qualit
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LetemEatCake
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Feb 22, 2013 12:14:00 AM


Good article, thanks for posting!
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52MPG
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Feb 21, 2013 5:45:47 AM

Who knows? Time will tell.
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NHLiveFree
Champion Author New Hampshire

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Message Posted: Feb 21, 2013 12:11:55 AM


Of course the industry, the API, and speculators have certainly done an incredible PR job on convincing the world of the 'unending abundance' lie.
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LetemEatCake
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:31:41 PM


Good article...unfortunately too few readers! Keep em' coming.
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PDQBlues
Champion Author San Diego

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:27:01 PM


Fracking: the next financial bubble ready to burst. But this one comes at a steep cost to our drinking water, our environment and our heath.
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humblepie
Champion Author Toledo

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 6:13:38 PM

so much ado about nothing
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BobBG
Champion Author Albany

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 2:20:29 PM

My grandfather taught me that if something seems too good to be true it probably is.
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evowner
Champion Author Salem

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 2:02:04 PM

Now that's a new slant on fracking!
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MadFueler
Champion Author Winston-Salem

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 1:29:42 PM

When conventional wells played out, fracking came along. When fracking is played out, something else will come along - yes, probably requiring more effort and expense, but never underestimate he power or American ingenuity. Of course, we should get some renewables up our sleeve, too.
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naspa
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 12:44:51 PM

Stop fracking forever!
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orphancarguyPE
Champion Author PEI

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 12:00:50 PM

This is NOT absolutely new, but this has been circulating around for a while for anyone who wanted to dig out the information and ignore all the 'happy-clappy' PR puffery from oil and gas companies wanting to entice more marks...errr...'savvy investors'.

'Skempton' below points out the HUGE difference between conventional oil and gas wells, and new fracked wells. Not only were they cheaper in the old days, but with care and management they could still be producing 30--40--50 years or more. The supergiant oilfields in Saudi Arabia are (with one relatively minor exception) in operation more than 62 years, and some are over 70 years in operation. Texas oil enjoyed a similar long life due to the policies and regulations of the Texas Railroad Commission (for different reasons, but it was a serendipidous discovery)

What has been assumed was that fracked gas as an example, would last half as long or provide half the gas, of a conventional well, so the breakeven price would be double conventional, at say $4 instead of $2. The wells are much more expensive than planned and do not last as long or produce as much, so the cost is heading for $8 or higher, and that is for the VERY BEST plays going. A extensive university study in Texas a couple of years ago estimated the 2020 cost at the Henry Hub at $6.50-$7.50, but already this appears to be our of date. Oil from fracking has similar limitations as natural gas.

There is LOTS of oil and natural gas from fracking available, but by its very structure, there will never be long lived low overhead cost wells producing for many decades, and there are no gushers ever in fracking. The true long term high cost will be sobering for both--they both has very poor ERoEI once you more away from the very richest plays in small parts of the Eagle Ford (NG) and small portions of the Bakken (oil).
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Buckeyee
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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:44:34 AM

The pres said the very same thing about oil, there isn't enough of it to last. He could never be wrong, could he ?
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peakkeller
Champion Author Colorado Springs

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:34:11 AM

This is the second scientist I've read say this...
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lesabreAZ
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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 11:00:45 AM

Frak Him
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fjkcpa
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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:58:55 AM

"They can't put anything on the Internet that isn't true."
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teenitup
Champion Author Houston

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:35:17 AM

Was not this the assumption all along?
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Joeski1
Champion Author New Jersey

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:24:15 AM

boom ... bust.... boom.... bust.....

everytime we have a boom... it takes away what we'll never get back.....

and the busts last longer and longer and grow deeper each time....

nothing sustainable here....

gotta go with what's plentiful and been around a billion years and always will be...

the water, the wind, the sun, and the earth.....

hydro, wind, solar, and GEO-thermal....

[Edited by: Joeski1 at 2/20/2013 10:24:47 AM EST]
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mastermariner
Champion Author Texas

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:23:38 AM

Too much money involved to stop
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gasmeup52
Champion Author Missouri

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 10:14:17 AM

Ok.
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fedupMN
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:54:03 AM

OK
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Suzzoom
Champion Author Nevada

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:46:21 AM

Doesn't surprise me. They have to project big returns in order to get investors.
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skempton
Champion Author Vermont

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:36:00 AM

Have a gas well in WV that is still producing after 40 years.
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Nicoalbum
Champion Author Ottawa

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Message Posted: Feb 20, 2013 9:34:47 AM

I always suspected that there is something terribly wrong with the shale gas reserves. It has been known for decades, that shale gas is unessential source of potential energy supply

[Edited by: Nicoalbum at 2/20/2013 9:35:14 AM EST]
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