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Author Topic: U.S. forecast as No. 2 economy, but energy independent Back to Topics
angel4me

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San Jose

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 3:33:14 AM

Washington - A new intelligence assessment of global trends projects that China will outstrip the United States as the leading economic power before 2030, but that America will remain an indispensable world leader, bolstered in part by an era of energy independence.

Russia's clout will wane, as will the economic strength of other countries reliant on oil for revenue, the assessment says.

The product of four years of intelligence-gathering and analysis, the study, by the National Intelligence Council, presents grounds for optimism and pessimism in nearly equal measure. The council reports to the director of national intelligence and has responsibilities for long-term strategic analysis.

"The spectacular rise of Asian economies is dramatically altering .?.?. U.S. influence," said
Visit Journal Sentinel for full article
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LetemEatCake
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Dec 12, 2012 11:13:43 PM


52mpg...what a hoot! Gimme some proof before blowing your mouth off!
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scu227
Champion Author New Haven

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Message Posted: Dec 12, 2012 8:30:01 AM

When you are #2 you try harder.
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DanMtz
Champion Author Oakland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:59:25 PM

No doubt we'll still be borrowing money from China in 2030.
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andy1024
Champion Author Allentown

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:24:40 PM

With the mounting debt, broken infrastructure, rampant greed in Wall Street, US will be lucky just to keep up. Every politician is paying lip service but sadly there is no action to change status quo.
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bwatchingu
Champion Author Arkansas

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:11:40 PM

interesting
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PDQBlues
Champion Author San Diego

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 1:12:17 PM


52MPG: I bet BO wants the US lower than number 2.

That's a bet you loose.

So far, many of these political predictions have been wrong.
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52MPG
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 11:31:08 AM

I bet BO wants the US lower than number 2.
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JDchefF
Champion Author Lancaster

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 11:23:55 AM

National Intelligence, yeah right! Not with the current politicians in office.
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darkform
Veteran Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 11:06:27 AM

interesting
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orphancarguyPE
Champion Author PEI

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:49:35 AM

Energy independence? Based on a LOT of assumptions, all of them going favourably. There might be an 'overall' net independence on 'total' energy, but that does NOT mean the US will not be still importing a lot of crude oil, and very very heavily dependent on that imported crude oil to make certain liquid fuels which, if they were not there in sufficient quantity, everything would grind to a halt.

Unless there is a massive and almost magical shift away from using liquid fuels for heating and transportation, the US will still be importing crude oil. Think tight oil will magically replace all the imported oil, in the next few years? Half an hour of checking out stats, a calculator, and some common sense will dispel that little myth. Fracked oil is a very tiny portion of all the oil used, and a tiny portion of the imported oil, and while the growth is impressive, it is a very tall mountain to climb just to replace the 'currently imported' portion. Flatout--20+ years, possibly up to 30 years...and that assumes that the existing domestic conventional oil doesn't decline in the meantime which it definitely will and is definitely doing right now. So, instead of 20 years, there is an equivalent of 40-50 years to replace all imported and all (by then dead, used up) conventional oil, and again, at the current flat out rate, and also if the horrendous and growing problems of infrastructure, water, transport, manpower, money for endless investment can all be magically whisked away.

Hydrogen fuel cells? Never--just for show, like turbine cars or flying cars, to point out it could be done, technically--if you ignore cost and utility. First of all, how and from what are you going to get the pure hydrogen? Come back when you have rearranged all the laws of physics that will make pure hydrogen on earth both cheap and plentiful.

Lots of nuclear? Possibly, but not probably. Nuclear is fine when it is built and running. Its building it, and even worse, re-building at the end of its useful life, that is incredibly expensive. Have a local plant that cost more to re-outfit for another 25-30 years than it cost to build in the first place...over $2 Billion and counting.

Natural gas? Lovely--yes, it will replace some liquid fuels, but you can't fly airplanes with it, and its very low energy compared to liquid fuels. Think of a fireplace--run out of nice dry aged oak and maple just in time for winter? No problem--just spend every day cutting down poplar and birch and no need for it to dry--it'll burn when green. Doesn't provide much heat and doesn't last any time, but the exercise will keep you warm! That, in a sentence is the promise of natural gas replacing liquid fuels made from crude oil or from biological equivalents. You will, like burning green wood, also need a lot more of it to do the same work as a liquid fuel, because gases just have a lot less energy than the liquid fuels.

The only way the US will be oil independent--because that is the real prize--is if the transportation sector switches massively to electric. Electric cars-hybrid plug-in electrics at over 80% of all vehicles on road, Electric trolley buses and streetcars and subways, electric powered freight and passenger trains, and very little air travel. Above all, there would have to be at least some PV electric panels on each roof to charge up all the electric vehicles. Won't need as many as if you were running everything in your house on them, but about 3-4 should do it per vehicle, just to save grid load from an extreme massive shift in use from gasoline/diesel/and natural gas, to electric.
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BlueVanGroup
Champion Author Fort Collins

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:20:16 AM


This article assumes a miracle will occur, and we won't collapse under the weight of unprecedented debt.
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bruin19MD
Champion Author Maryland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:06:55 AM

Interesting article
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OTISFL
Champion Author Pensacola

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 10:04:35 AM

I agree with 'Car253'
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eschroth442
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:51:58 AM

just someone's or a groups opinion
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fora_7
Champion Author Montreal

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:50:54 AM

Hard to beat China. Who would accept to earn in a month what we earn here in a day. But the country is getting very rich...
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bcline909
Veteran Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:15:13 AM

oh china
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scu227
Champion Author New Haven

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:15:11 AM

OK
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car253
Champion Author Ohio

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:09:43 AM

With Obama we will be lucky not to fall to Third World status.
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evowner
Champion Author Salem

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 9:06:02 AM

National Intelligence Council four year study seems to be reporting a reasonable finding according to facts in the news.
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cheapchickKY
Champion Author Lexington

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:49:24 AM

Opinion presented as fact.
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Eagle3236
Champion Author Missouri

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:41:16 AM

Hopefully we can remain #1 economy. Low energy prices would help us! We need to build the Keystone pipeline ASAP. Also building more nuclear power plants would be helpful.
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coughlin
Champion Author San Jose

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:40:29 AM

Young people should learn Mandarin.
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lcleveland
Champion Author San Antonio

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:26:45 AM

USA will always be #1
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amoshins
Champion Author Trenton

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:18:43 AM

makes sense
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wrunner
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:13:21 AM

Not a surprise, it is.
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GingoutMD
Champion Author Maryland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:11:56 AM

China has been on the upward move for decades and Obama has nothing to do with this issue. In fact, if Bush hadn't sent us into an economic spiral and made the taxpayers pay for two wars with no funding we may not have been in this boat, but then again, I doubt it would have mattered.
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graceman
Champion Author Baltimore

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:09:42 AM

Hopefully this wont happen.
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Evilmaddog
Champion Author British Columbia

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 8:03:34 AM

government speculation
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katmandue
Champion Author Detroit

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:55:22 AM

No such thing as energy independence.
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amerk73
Champion Author Dallas

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:53:42 AM

no more oil 2030
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brbaritone
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:46:58 AM

Will this 'energy independence' result in lower prices?
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doeslayersr
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:45:59 AM

I am sure the current administration is tickled of bringing down the USA a notch.
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dandvicb
Champion Author Bridgeport

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:41:55 AM

Thanks Obuma!!
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Yooperheart
Champion Author Michigan

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:30:28 AM

Welcome to the Third world.
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gfox4810
Champion Author Kalamazoo

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:21:09 AM

Don't blame me...I didn't vote for him.
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Joeski1
Champion Author New Jersey

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:13:37 AM

I'll make a note of it.
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gs7101
Champion Author San Antonio

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 7:10:40 AM

Never count out the United States of America!
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gcalleja
Champion Author Miami

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:58:37 AM

But aren't the Chinese buying all of our oil assets too?
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MImusicman
Champion Author Michigan

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:52:42 AM

Sooner if the Prez as his way
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Nancy&Len
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:38:05 AM

It will actually happen much sooner with the current and planned future economic policies of this administration.
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Straitliner
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:18:52 AM

Thats a good way to describe it, a #2, you all know what it means to go #2?
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pscamp
Champion Author Ottawa

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:15:45 AM

Really??
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yardslave
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 6:11:26 AM

Ok...
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TxMtb
Champion Author Ohio

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 5:59:57 AM

Like we didn't see this one coming.
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OHIO50
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 5:57:11 AM

Surprise.
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N1SJK
Sophomore Author New Hampshire

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 5:52:23 AM

Who's surprised?
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pilotmass
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 5:16:29 AM

Energy sources the new world economic weapon.

And our Arsenal is loaded!
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werich44
Champion Author California

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 5:03:28 AM

Be sure to thank King obama.
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Pozole
Champion Author Portland

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 4:59:19 AM

...no one can stay on top [oppress] forever...
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grandpadon28110
Champion Author Charlotte

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 4:57:05 AM

Bad.
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