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Author Topic: Ready for the US energy boom? Back to Topics
brbaritone

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Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:16:10 AM

Five years ago, I never imagined I'd type these words: By 2017, the United States will overtake Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer.

In addition, according to the International Energy Agency, by 2015, the United States will overtake Russia to become the world's largest producer of natural gas.

The United States is now the fastest-growing oil and natural gas producer in the world. During the past five years, according to Citigroup, the United States has added 2.59 million barrels a day to total production.

You'd think there's an investable angle there somewhere.

I can think of four:
Visit MSN Money for full article
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
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remay
Champion Author Houston

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Message Posted: Nov 26, 2012 6:11:39 AM

I STILL won't type those words. I just don't see the US SUSTAINING the output...
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NedW
Champion Author Indianapolis

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Message Posted: Nov 26, 2012 2:20:32 AM

I'm not holding my breath waiting for money to stop going to the middle east.
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johton
Champion Author Seattle

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2012 11:51:54 AM

I think it's already happening in North Dakota.
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ClarkSC
Champion Author South Carolina

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2012 8:50:54 AM

What boom?
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Nancy&Len
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2012 7:30:26 AM

We will have to wait and see.
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CivicMA
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2012 1:21:19 AM

Yes, but we'll export it and sell more expensive energy to US Citizens!
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LostInNY
Champion Author New York

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Message Posted: Nov 25, 2012 12:20:49 AM

no win for us any way....so who cares...
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bston
Champion Author Oklahoma City

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:15:39 PM

Yeah, but who will own our country by then?
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TripleHs
Champion Author Austin

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:36:40 PM

wait to see
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esq262
Champion Author Asheville

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:22:37 PM

Be waiting.
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Wanda127
Champion Author Florida

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:07:44 PM

Thanks for all the info orphancarguyPE.
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orphancarguyPE
Champion Author PEI

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 6:54:51 PM

Peak oil is still here. Although the US will be rising, almost everywhere else in the world is falling, some by a bit, some by a lot. Even with the US increase, overall worldwide production is forecast to remain flat (which proves that somewhere else, its falling) It is a much a factor of Saudi Arabian production slowly falling as it is of US production rising. Not long ago, '11 maybe even 12 MMbd' were optimistically presaged in a couple of years for Saudi Arabia-- but the reality might be more in line with the 9.5 MMbd now being mentioned.

If you read this article carefully, even though overall production might go up, its more of a 'three steps forward, two back' situation, because much less expensive old conventional oil from Texas, California and other places is declining almost as quickly as new more expensive fracked oil is rising. This just means that the averaged overall COST of oil is going to rise. Its a simple economic principal re: marginal cost of replacement supplies. Look it up. So, the US domestic oil price advantage is just going to slowly disappear. As the price rises, the 'boom' will tend to be self-limiting as the cost of energy will no longer be 'cheap' or 'cheap enough' for really big growth.

As well, even with the increase, the US is going to be NOWHERE NEAR even covering its own demand. Forecasts of 10-11+ Million barrels a day (MMbd) by 2017? Well, too bad, because current demand in the US is 18.8 MMbd so there will still be a large shortfall with imports needed. This side of the most amazing switcheroo in the next 5 years, demand is unlikely to fall, or fall by much from current levels.

So, just becoming #1 or #2 in oil or gas, or 'percentages in increase' means absolutely nothing at all, unless you place it in the proper context of total production and total demand.

[Edited by: orphancarguyPE at 11/24/2012 6:56:39 PM EST]
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YaBassa
Champion Author Michigan

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 5:37:41 PM

Pump prices will not go down, but Big Oil's profits will soar.
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bwatchingu
Champion Author Arkansas

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 2:28:39 PM

watching
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sciotosix
Champion Author Dayton

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 2:07:16 PM

As long as we keep it here.
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sdslim
Champion Author Florida

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 2:06:09 PM

That is if fracking doesn't come to an end.
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FluffyDogAttack
Champion Author Riverside

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 1:53:23 PM

Geez, and I've been waiting for the world to run out of oil since the 70's. Now what am I going to freak-out about?
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ss70
Champion Author Detroit

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 1:35:39 PM

where are the peak oil people .. thanks to last administration we are paying so high prices even today
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mitt4prez
Champion Author Tacoma

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 12:21:33 PM

Five years ago, all the howling was of PEAK OIL, and everything was doomed unless we surrendered all freedom to being GREEN.
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barber7796
Veteran Author Oklahoma

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:42:51 AM

I am sure that POTUS will receive the blame for this as it seems like everything else is blamed on him.

Over 50% of voters elected him so I guess it makes him MY PRESIDENT also
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humblepie
Champion Author Toledo

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:41:10 AM

i wouldnt bet on it
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tnfran
Champion Author Arizona

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:39:19 AM

Good .
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Pramodsharma
Champion Author Richmond

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:19:07 AM

We are ready, consumption gradient is low and production is high. Developing economies need the gas and oil , we are setting up our shops.
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bruin19MD
Champion Author Maryland

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 11:02:16 AM

Great article, thanks for posting.
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DanMtz
Champion Author Oakland

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:50:51 AM

Great, the economy needs help.
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VomVom
Champion Author Calgary

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:45:34 AM

At least the US will reduce import from OPEC.
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gbs1
Champion Author Minnesota

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:44:21 AM

We are seeing some incredible things happening that no one could have predicted five years ago.
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200porter
Champion Author Toronto

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:42:03 AM

Good but it needs to be reflected to the consumer by lowering prices at the pumps.
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REBELFAN39
All-Star Author Jackson

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 10:07:47 AM

Doubt we''ll see it at the pump!
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kyjlh
Champion Author Kentucky

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 9:46:01 AM

Obama will take all the credit, even thou it came from land
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merlinCO
Champion Author Colorado

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 9:37:57 AM

When will the US become a member of OPEC?
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OTISFL
Champion Author Pensacola

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 9:06:14 AM

I've been waiting and have a feeling I'll wait a whole lot longer for this to materialize.
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Buckeyee
Champion Author Maine

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:38:26 AM

So glad Obama did so much to bring all the new oil and natural gas, & all the thousands of jobs too. If you don't believe me, just ask him !!
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Radar1992
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:30:44 AM

Bring it!!!! Let the money flow to us!
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Straitliner
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:20:01 AM

I doubt it will reflect at the pump, if it does it wont be the way we want it.
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Evilmaddog
Champion Author British Columbia

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:18:01 AM

they'll just export more
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playtimeCLE
Champion Author Cleveland

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:14:38 AM

Maybe this can help with jobs & start to repair the economy.
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Ticobird
Champion Author Huntsville

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:10:18 AM

While I don't do investment trading I do like reading MSN's Jim Jubak financial articles. He has a great way of explaining the possible ways to financially play various currently changing technological developments and he even explains when and how he made mistakes which is something I rarely read with investment advisers.

[Edited by: Ticobird at 11/24/2012 8:12:27 AM EST]
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Rockyguitar
Champion Author Tampa

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:07:51 AM

I'll believes it when I sees it!
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gs7101
Champion Author San Antonio

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:05:59 AM

Bring it!
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dandvicb
Champion Author Bridgeport

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:03:01 AM

LOL.... just wait for the speculators!!!
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1970vette
Veteran Author Nevada

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 8:00:50 AM

hopefully the price at the pump will reflect that
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pscamp
Champion Author Ottawa

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:58:59 AM

Really??
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FPLREP
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:56:24 AM

That is assuming Obama makes no negative changes to regulations. I woudn't bet my money on it. He has already closed off thousands of acres that had been approved for drilling.
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sabre75
Champion Author Florida

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:52:58 AM

Good news. but will it bring our gas prices down?
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oilfreak
All-Star Author Houston

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:39:25 AM

Great
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hotwire43
Veteran Author Indiana

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:31:00 AM

This is great news.
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grandpadon28110
Champion Author Charlotte

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:30:10 AM

Go.
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SSwathwood
All-Star Author Denver

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:27:36 AM

Interesting.
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jrs4125
Champion Author Indiana

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:20:53 AM

This too shall pass.
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brbaritone
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 24, 2012 7:17:08 AM

The article continues:

First, the stocks of the companies responsible for this huge surge in U.S. production.

Second, the stocks of the companies that will make money from solving the current bottleneck in getting this supply to market.

Third, the stocks of companies that will benefit from the long time frame of this trend. The trend is likely to stretch on for a decade or two -- with a likely extension past 2030 as supply from Canada and Mexico increases. This will drive North America as a whole toward energy-self-sufficiency projects with long time lines that had been discounted on the risk that the boom would be over before they were completed.

Fourth, the sectors in the U.S. economy that will reap benefits from lower U.S. energy prices, beyond the general advantages flowing to the U.S. economy from lower energy costs.
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