borsht
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Message Posted: May 22, 2013 6:36:53 PM
Weekly Price Outlook: Market size for U.S. corn and soybeans.
May 22, 2013
The USDA's May 10 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report contained supply and consumption projections for the 2013-14 marketing year for U.S. corn and soybeans. For the most part, the market focused on the projections of crop size, but according to University of Illinois agricultural economist Darrel Good, the most important information is in the projections of marketing year consumption.
"The U.S average corn yield is projected at 158 bushels per acre, below our calculation of trend yield near 161.5 bushels, and production is projected at a record 14.14 billion bushels," Good said. "The U.S. average soybean yield is projected at 44.5 bushels per acre, above our trend-yield calculation near 44 bushels, and production is projected at a record 3.39 billion bushels. The projected corn yield reflects the expectation that yield potential has been compromised by the likelihood that a much larger-than-average percentage of the 2013 crop will be planted later than is optimal for maximum yield potential. The soybean yield forecast reflects an opportunity to plant much of the crop in a timely fashion with much improved soil moisture conditions in many areas," Good said.
According to Good, the yield of both crops will be determined by weather conditions yet to unfold so considerable uncertainty will persist for another three months. In addition, the magnitude of planted acreage is not yet known with more information to be available in the USDA's June Acreage report.
"The consumption projections for both crops reflect judgment about the size of the market under conditions of ample supplies and much lower prices," Good said. "These projections are valuable because they provide context for evaluating the price implications of production potential as it unfolds over the next few months," he said.
For corn, use for ethanol and by-product production is forecast at 4.85
farmersadvanceDOTcom/article/20130522/MARKETOUTLOOK/305220312/1053 L
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 22, 2013 5:32:17 PM
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1448781-crop-progress-corn-acres-planted-jumps-to-71?source=email_macro_view&ifp=0
As of May 19, 2013 71% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted. This was a huge jump in acres planted and only 8% behind the five year average of 79%. Corn that has emerged was at 19%, down 27% from the five year average.
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stickyvalves
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Message Posted: May 22, 2013 10:23:55 AM
Cloudy and cool. Not much drying weather for more planting progress. This will be an interesting year to watch develop.
Some early planting, most late planting, some later planting. Growing season to follow.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 22, 2013 3:31:50 AM
Hot and dry yesterday. Should be more of the same today.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 21, 2013 12:55:45 PM
Pleased to not be entirely accurate. My 60% guess was too low. Muddy in my part of the world today.
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Hannie59
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Appleton
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Message Posted: May 21, 2013 12:00:50 PM
Great News! The USDA reports 71% of America's corn is now planted, up from 28% last week.
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borsht
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Oakland
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Message Posted: May 21, 2013 1:57:44 AM
Today’s update:
http://www.agweb.com/corn_planting_map.aspx
Jerry Gulke doesn’t think the grain market is prepared for how much planting was completed last week.
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johnchase
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Message Posted: May 21, 2013 12:07:21 AM
Say no To ethanol
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 20, 2013 6:45:08 PM
Sam Nelson, Reuters | Updated: 05/16/2013
Rainfall late this week into the weekend will further delay U.S. corn plantings that already have fallen to a record slow pace, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday.
"We're about to see delays in plantings once again," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services.
Keeney said the warmer and drier weather early this week is being replaced by rain and cooler temperatures later in the week, with the heaviest downpours of up to 3.5 inches expected in the northwest Midwest.
"They will have four or five days of delays," he said. "Then it will be drier and warmer late next week, but showers will move into the eastern Midwest."
Looks like Reuters blew it again. So what really happened?
Iowa farmers made significant progress planting crops during the week ending May 19, 2013 according to the USDA. The best weather of year for fieldwork allowed producers to rapidly advance their planting pace, especially for corn. The good weather held in most areas till
late in the week, when severe storms were seen across much of Iowa. There was an average of 5.3 days suitable for fieldwork during the week, over twice the days suitable for fieldwork in any previous week this year.
5.3 days... I will take it anytime.
By the end of the week, 71 percent of Iowa’s corn acreage had been planted, an increase of 56 percentage points from last week.
In Illinois Corn planting was in full swing last week as most of the state saw an extended period of warm, dry weather for the first time this year. Statewide, corn planting progress jumped to 74 percent complete, up from 17 percent the previous week. According to many reports, many producers were
actually able to finish planting corn and moved on to planting soybeans.
In Nebraska for the week ending May 19, 2013, corn planting advanced quickly as clear skies and above normal temperatures prevailed throughout much of the week, according to USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service, Nebraska Field Office. Temperatures soared into triple digits at mid-week, breaking previous highs. Rain moved across the state over the weekend, but by then many producers in southern counties had completed corn planting andwere moving onto soybeans. Corn planted was 84 percent.
Nationwide the total corn planted rose from 28% to 71% which might be some kind of record for one week of planting.
I doubt that any other farmers in the world can plant at that rate.
[Edited by: goldseeker at 5/20/2013 6:50:25 PM EST]
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smugutu1234
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Tallahassee
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Message Posted: May 20, 2013 9:29:04 AM
What?
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 20, 2013 9:06:09 AM
I have had E85 in the tank for 10 days now. Running at 20% lower price than local gasohol prices. But... You have to be careful and know where the next refill is. I have to carefully plan my fills.
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stickyvalves
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Message Posted: May 20, 2013 9:00:40 AM
Most of the western corn belt got watered last nite. We'll call that a crop starter rain.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 20, 2013 2:36:05 AM
They are calling for scattered showers around here all week long. Of course they called for that last week, and we only had rain over the weekend.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 19, 2013 3:32:28 PM
Link still not working today.
[Edited by: goldseeker at 5/19/2013 3:34:26 PM EST]
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 19, 2013 9:45:34 AM
Varying amounts of rainfall across the western cornbelt. Good crop starters.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 19, 2013 5:21:56 AM
Corn in my area is now beginning to show due to the warmer temperatures this past week.
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stickyvalves
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Message Posted: May 18, 2013 3:40:22 PM
No such thing as a perfect crop year. Nature does not work that way. We'll keep talking about crop prospects until harvest. Maybe later than that. Tough to know the total crop because no one individual can know all of the corn belt's growing conditions. Have fun watching.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 18, 2013 9:49:56 AM
It is too bad that you cannot insert a link today. I would prefer that so you can read a fairly recent article coming to you from IASU by Roger Elmore and Elwynn Taylor titled "Analog Years for Weather Forecasting and Correlating Corn Planting Dates with Yield in Iowa"
It is a really good source of information comparing late plantings with years gone by and this year. A lot of it may be too technical for the average reader, but since you cannot list a link I will just try to hit the high spots.
By the way, this article was written on May 15th, so it is fairly up-to-date.
As of May 12, 15 percent of Iowa’s corn was planted (USDA-NASS). This is a slower pace than what Iowan’s experienced even in the flood year, 1993, when 20 percent was planted at this time in May. The 8 percent planted before May 5 was subjected to dramatic soil temperature changes as well as up to a foot of snow in parts of Iowa. Many Integrated Crop Management News articles, blogs, Twitter posts, and other media document spring 2013 conditions and concerns.
To the surprise of many, soil moisture profiles across the state are filled or closely filled as we write. The U.S. Drought Monitor receded to the west and northwest every progressive week.
When faced with different weather patterns like those we’ve experienced so far this year, we often turn to analog years. These are years considered as having similar trends in temperature and/or precipitation as those we are currently experiencing. Whether we agree or not, people use analog years to compare data like planting progress as well. It is often tempting to speculate that if we’ve had similar trends in weather or planting dates historically, we can use that as an analog year to forecast conditions – and thus corn yields - the rest of the current growing season. Even if the analog year is not a totally reliable for the yield outlook it does at least provide an idea of the risks and potentials that could be experienced during the growing season.
Another way to think about analog years is planting progress. As mentioned in our introduction, as of Sunday, May 12, only 15 percent of Iowa’s corn was planted. That was an increase from 8 percent the week before. Little corn planting occurred May 6–10 because of mid-week rains that unfortunately re-saturated fields just when they were nearly dry enough for planting following the early May snow; this delayed planting once more.
Since 1980, planting progress in early May of three years - 1984, 1993 and 1995 - was similar to what we’ve experienced this year. Because flooding resulted in delayed planting in 1993, let’s focus on the other two as possible analog years for planting date.
1984: Six percent of Iowa’s corn was planted by May 6; however, one week later, by May 13, Iowa farmers planted another 29 percent. Planting in 1984 began by April 29 and ended by June 10. Half the crop was planted by May 15, 10 days behind the 1978-1987 average of May 5. By May 12 of this year, 2013, we only had 15 percent of our corn planted for the reasons we mentioned above. Corn yields in 1984 were 3 percent above trend line. The delayed planting in early May was correlated with increased yields. Although 1984 SDD were slightly greater than normal, there were fewer SDD in that year compared to 1995.
Only 10 percent of Iowa’s corn was planted by May 7, 1995. Another 20 percent was added the next week and 62 pecent of the crop was in by May 21. Although planting progress was similar to that of 1984, yields in 1995 were 9 percent below trend line. Planting delays in 1995 were correlated with reduced yields; please note this doesn’t mean delays that year actually reduced yields. The primary impact in 1995 was high heat stress following silking relative to normal.
Although analog years for weather and corn planting dates are interesting and help us understand potential hazards as well as opportunities, they may or not be accurate predictors of what will happen in 2013. Weather patterns the rest of the growing season will dictate that. The last sentence really says it all.
It is too bad that I cannot copy and paste the charts in here.
There are several years with similar growing conditions where they are making comparisons.
Even though 2011 was a wet and cool spring, conditions were pretty good the rest of the growing season and Iowa came in at a whopping 172 bpa. Of course we all remember how bad it was last year. Remember we had record heat and no rain. In spite of this the yield for Iowa came in at 137 bpa. A low yield for sure by Iowa standards, but certainly not a disaster. If you look at the country break downs it will show a high of 152 bpa and a low of 62 bpa.
There are some vast improvements that have evolved over the past 30 years. Farmers can choose a vast variety of hybrids that will still mature with a late planting date, or one that is drought resistant.
Oh by the way here is the link if you want to read the entire report.
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/CropNews/2013/0515elmoretaylor.htm
[Edited by: goldseeker at 5/18/2013 9:53:28 AM EST]
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 18, 2013 6:03:13 AM
Looks like links not working today.
[Edited by: goldseeker at 5/18/2013 6:04:26 AM EST]
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 18, 2013 5:59:25 AM
"U.S. corn yields are unlikely to reach their full potential this year as the slowest planting pace on record"
Slowest pace on record! Not so fast! Citing Reuters who is no real expert on crops will not give very good results.
Lets take a look at the historical record which is based on true facts, not pure speculation.
In 2011 we had lots of rain and major flooding in several of the major corn producing states. Let's take a look at a few.
In Ohio I was very concerned as the crop was so far behind that I did not think it would even get planted. As of May 15 2011, the record will show only 7% planted. Currently as of May 12, 2013 46% of Ohio's corn has been planted which is slightly below the 5 year average of 49%. Significant progress did not show until May 29th which came in at 61%. By June 12 93% of planting was complete. And by June 19th 98% of the crop was planted.
Now I have to admit that seems way to late. Let's see, what was the final yield that year? The record will show 148.6 bpa. Not bad, and certainly not a disaster. Now on a near perfect year the yield may have hit 160+. But how often do we have a perfect year?
Hey Sticky, how often do you have perfect years out your way?
Now let's take a look at Pennsylvania. I was there in 2011, and in most of April and early May the rain was heavy and many fields was flooded. My best guess would have been no plantings at all. In fact when you check the May 1, 2011 planting report they do not even mention corn. However when you check the May 8th report for 2011 this sentence will jump right out at you. "Corn planting has finally begun, and is 10%". And at June 10th 2011
corn planting was 95% complete. When all was said and done the yield came in at 111 bpa which was down from the norm, but certainly no disaster as some would have predicted. The current report for May 12 shows PA at 48% which is ahead of the five year average.
These two states are just examples of what can and does happen. I have worked on and around major farms for years and directly with the farming community for most of my life. I have also followed the crop reports for many nears. I can never remember perfect planting and growing conditions nationwide. When you have a perfect year you have record yields which can result in a bin buster.....which means mountains of corn piled high on the ground.
Now what about Iowa and Illinois which are major states. I predict they will be OK this year. Probably not a bin buster, but then again, it is a long growing season and a lot can happen. Isn't that right Sticky?
I used to listen to a podcast that was put out every Monday morning by Iowa State. Several years ago Iowa was having a lot of spring rains and major flooding. Even Roger Elmore was very pessimistic about that years crop and predicted significant yield reductions. To make matters worse some "armchair expert" came in hear and predicted a killing frost for August, for the major corn belt states! So what happened that year? There was a long growing season and the first killing frost did not come until late November. The Iowa crops turned out just fine. Even Mr. Elmore admitted that he was wrong.
I weigh heavily on the opinions of folks like Roger Elmore. If I really want to know what is going on I go the the crop watch blogs that is available in most of the corn belt states, or perhaps their associated corn growers organizations as they all have web sites that are updated regularly. And in my area I just get in my car and drive.
I can well remember 2011. I got into a heated argument with a woman over the late plantings. She said, "no need to worry" "if the corn is knee high by the 4th of July it will be just fine". She was right. Even the corn planted in early June was indeed "knee high by the 4th of July"!
What will happen this year? At this early part of the growing season it is pure speculation. I have no faith in these early yield estimates. They can be way off. When the July report comes out then the true yield estimates will start to have real credibility. August will be better and by mid September we will know pretty much the final result.
Reuters????? Have they ever walked in a corn field?
My best guess at this early part of the season is that overall we will have a good year, not a great year, but certainly better than the doomsdayers reports. Their will be good yields in some states, average yields in others, and likely poor yields in others.
I would almost bet that there will be good yields in some parts of Iowa, and other parts yields that are not so good. What say you Sticky?
Stay tuned...In about 4 months we will have the real answer.
[Edited by: goldseeker at 5/18/2013 6:02:02 AM EST]
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 5:25:18 PM
Sam Nelson, Reuters | Updated: 05/16/2013
Rainfall late this week into the weekend will further delay U.S. corn plantings that already have fallen to a record slow pace, an agricultural meteorologist said on Thursday.
"We're about to see delays in plantings once again," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA Weather Services.
Keeney said the warmer and drier weather early this week is being replaced by rain and cooler temperatures later in the week, with the heaviest downpours of up to 3.5 inches expected in the northwest Midwest.
"They will have four or five days of delays," he said. "Then it will be drier and warmer late next week, but showers will move into the eastern Midwest."
Warmer and drier weather in many areas of the U.S. Corn Belt early this week allowed farmers in the fields, and very rapid planting progress is expected to have been made. Some observers are expecting seedings to be half or 60 percent complete by the end of this week, but still at a record slow pace.
As of Sunday, farmers had seeded 28 percent of their intended corn acres, up from 12 percent a week earlier but far behind the five-year average of 65 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a weekly report on Monday.
The planting pace for corn was the slowest for this point in the year in USDA records dating back to the 1980s, lagging 1984, when farmers had seeded 29 percent of their corn.
The figure fell below the average estimate of 29 percent from analysts' surveyed by Reuters ahead of the report.
For soybeans, the USDA said planting was 6 percent complete, up from 2 percent a week earlier. But the pace was the slowest for the 19th week since 1984, when soybeans were only 4 percent seeded. The five-year U.S. average is 24 percent.
U.S. corn yields are unlikely to reach their full potential this year as the slowest planting pace on record
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goldseeker
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West Virginia
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 4:55:50 PM
Actually tractors are now approved to burn up to B100 and some farmers are indeed making their own.
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SilverStreaker
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Twin Cities
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 11:17:38 AM
It would be a good sign for petroleum IF they developed refineries to burn petroleum, instead of using nuclear and coal generated electricity.
It would be a good sign if borsht could learn to keep focussed on the topic instead of digressing...
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 11:05:02 AM
It would be a good sign for ethanol IF they developed engines to burn E85 for farm tractors so the farmers could be the demonstrators of the efficacy of ethanol as an energy source.
If they did, how many farms would purchase ethanol powered tractors.
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borsht
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Oakland
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 10:38:48 AM
Outlook for heavy farm equipment manufacturers is dimming.
Deere - Down 3.2% this week amid a disappointing near-term outlook, more declines are in the offing as Goldman Sachs downgrades Deere (DE) to sell and cuts its price target to $85 from $98. The investment bank now sees 15% downside to consensus EPS views in 2014 and 2015 as "recovering commodity inventories point to lower US farm income and capex" while "US dealer inventories are 17% above historical levels, farmer capex and capital stock are at peak and combine values are softening." Goldman also points out that though the amount of US land being planted on has been little changed the past 20 years, "ag-equipment sales are up over 60%" and capital spending has been at records this decade. DE falls 0.7% premarket to $88.75. (kevin.kingsbury@dowjones.com)
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 9:53:54 AM
Parts of Iowa got rains last nite and are done for a couple days. The rest of the state will continue to progress, and the Monday report will show more than my 60% guess. Lots of 24 and 32 row planters running now. Iowa will set a new record on weekly planting progress.
The US crop will set a new progress record as well.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 3:51:18 AM
"When will the tractors start burning ethanol?" Not likely to happen since most tractors are diesel. Sheesh!
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 17, 2013 1:42:42 AM
Today from Strain:TODAY'S GUIDANCE: With farmers working all week and most planting 24 hours a day, we see next week's
progress report hitting 50% at a minimum but would not be surprised to see 60% or more. The record increase week
over week is 43% in 1992 but this may not be attainable given the slowdown later this week due to scattered
showers. The technical charts are beginning to breakdown modestly and we simply see the bullish advantage
deteriorating by the day as the crop gets planted at which point total market focus will shift to June/July weather
conditions. Export sales may provide direction today although given that exports are at 1970/71 levels, even numbers
above the trade estimate might be quickly pushed aside.
When will the tractors start burning E85?
When will the tractors start burning ethanol?
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 16, 2013 11:20:49 AM
Sun is shining, the planters are running, and some corn is up.
The race is on!
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goldseeker
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West Virginia
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Message Posted: May 16, 2013 3:27:10 AM
Keep in mind that the crop watch blogs are available for several other corn belt states. Lots of good information there. And they generally get updated more often than the NASS site.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 16, 2013 3:14:48 AM
92 in the valleys yesterday and 82 here on the mountaintop. Farmers were busy planting around here. So far I have seen no emerged corn, which is a good thing, as we had heavy frost just two days ago.
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borsht
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Oakland
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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 1:25:57 PM
The progress report showed extensive progress for select states in both the WCB and ECB but key states
like IL and IA, which are the leaders as far as total acreage, continue to show a sluggish pace with expectations for
further delays by the weekend. On the other hand, farmers will be working 24 hours a day in various areas of the Corn
Belt this week with progress noted in Central IL yesterday as well as parts of IA, NE, and MO.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 12:24:17 PM
10 days ago I was driving in 7" of wet, sloppy snow. Thermometer said 102 yesterday. Here's and early guess. Iowa will go from 15% planted Sunday to 60% this next report. Maybe more if the weather holds.
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goldseeker
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West Virginia
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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 3:02:17 AM
Most of the area farms have been tilled around here and several have been planted. Not sure if any has imerged which is a good thing as there was heavy frost in most of the area yesterday. Much warmer today with more rain on the way.
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greydog13
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 15, 2013 12:33:04 AM
Considering the sleet, hail, snow, and rain we have received so far this spring, we are in better shape than I expected us to be in NW Iowa at this point. Long way yet to go.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 14, 2013 9:29:50 PM
Glad to hear NE CO is planting in some moisture. NE and IA are going hard. I have not been east. I saw irrigation pivots running today in NE on newly planted ground. I think they may have worked some ground while it was too wet.
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goldseeker
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Message Posted: May 14, 2013 7:35:12 PM
Good advice for continued crop plantings for Iowa.
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Waterman66
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Message Posted: May 14, 2013 5:56:55 PM
Hey Sticky,
Planters are moving fast and furious out here. Finally no snow for almost 10 days around here. The moisture was nice but not nearly enough. We have about 2 1/2 feet of moisture in the NE Colorado. Further south, forget it. Winter wheat is dyeing. It will be interesting to see what the stream flow forecasts are for the south platte and Arkansas basins. Probably no better than 75% even thou we are at average snow pack. Too much ground to make up from last year.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 14, 2013 7:58:41 AM
Iowa at 15% planted. Right on my estimate. I missed NE big. Sorrrryyyyy.
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borsht
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Oakland
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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 11:15:32 AM
From Strain report: May 13
We continue to believe there is significant downside risk to corn prices going forward given that bearish US supply outlook along with fresh supplies from Brazil and Ukraine. Old crop demand remains strong,
particularly in the ethanol sector and this is likely to continue going forward given the healthy margins across the industry. The weather disturbance late this week looks to delay planting again but a modest amount of work will be done until then which will pressure. If planting progress begins to improve, $4.96 3/4 will become the next downside
target for December Corn. Look for a choppy, two-sided day of trade today with any advance higher led by the July contract.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 9:26:17 AM
Frost on the rooftops yesterday morning and 35 today.
Supposed to be 90 tomorrow!
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goldseeker
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West Virginia
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Message Posted: May 13, 2013 2:56:06 AM
35 and clear. Haven't been outside yet, but there is likely scattered frost. Was up in Oakland yesterday and saw a few snowflakes in the air.
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 12, 2013 6:24:54 PM
IMO If weather doesn’t improve it could be attractive for corn growers that haven’t placed the seed yet to look at favorable pricing for Soy beans. But as usual there are no slam dunks in the farm world.
Extraordinarily complex and very dependent on both the controls the farmer takes in placing the seed and the soil conditions when placed. Also, the weather for the next 3 months.
The May 10 USDA report is out.
http://www.agweb.com/article/look_for_a_4_harvest_price_on_corn/
New-crop corn production of 14.14 billion bushels will surpass last year’s output by 31% despite delayed planting that has already cut yield potential significantly, according to USDA’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) released May 10.
U.S. growers are expected to produce a record crop of soybeans totaling 3.39 billion bushels, and projected supplies of corn and soybeans are also growing, the report shows.
"There was nothing positive in these numbers at all," says Brad Paulson, president of Northern Crops Marketing and Investments, Langdon, N.D. Projected world carryout and production of corn and soybeans were stronger than expected as well. Paulson was the commentator on post-report MGEX press briefing.
"A harvest price of $4 per bushel for corn is very likely if the crop gets in with good weather," says Paulson. "There is a fair amount of corn out there. Corn is just in tight hands." He expects producers to clear out their bins in July and August.
The increased supply situation came despite a 5.6-bushel reduction in the previous new-crop trend corn yield to 158 bushels per acre due to delayed planting.
USDA raised its estimate for the old-crop corn carryout to 759 million bushels, 10 million bushels more than the average trade estimate and 2 million bushels more than the April estimate and raised projected carryout for new-crop corn to 2 billion bushels, which is 7 million bushels more than the average trade estimate.
With planting weather improving, Paulson says the new-crop carryout numbers could grow as the season progresses. "The weather forecast looks good for the next 10 days," he says. "These numbers could be increased down the road if the crops get in before the end of May."
World Supplies Growing
"Soybeans are the tightest, and the basis is the strongest on soybeans," says Paulson. Large crops in Brazil and Argentina, however, will continue to prevent price run-ups in new-crop soybeans.
USDA’s outlooks for South American production of corn and soybeans were also stronger than expected. The department pegs Brazil’s and Argentina’s combined corn production at 102.5 million metric tons, stronger than both the average trade estimate of 100.3 million metric tons and last month’s projected 100.5 million metric tons.
South American soybean production is now estimated at 134.5 million metric tons, larger than the average trade estimate of 133.5 million metric tons but smaller than the previous estimate of 135 million metric tons.
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goldseeker
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West Virginia
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Message Posted: May 12, 2013 7:51:52 AM
"expecting a 35-40% increase in planting progress next Monday which seems a bit aggressive."
Just another worthless comment from Borsht's fractured fairy tales.
With pretty good conditions forecast, quite a bit will get planted this week.
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 11, 2013 5:42:16 PM
I think we are at 25% planted, and most of that is east. NE and IA will be at 15%. How's that for a guess?
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 10, 2013 11:17:18 AM
Comment from strait's grain report today.
It seems as though the market just wants to see planting
progress somewhere across the Corn Belt no matter where it is and how much is going on. Some in the trade are
expecting a 35-40% increase in planting progress next Monday which seems a bit aggressive. It's more likely the market sees a third of the total crop planted by May 12th. The weather outlook for next week should promote another week of scattered progress with hopes that 50% of the US crop will be planted by the 20th.
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borsht
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Message Posted: May 10, 2013 11:05:42 AM
Todays Ag poll on planting progress.
http://www.agweb.com/poll_results.aspx?PollID=33
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stickyvalves
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Iowa
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Message Posted: May 9, 2013 11:08:06 PM
Like your optimism, Hannie59. Spotty planting taking place in the western corn belt.
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geoutpb
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Message Posted: May 9, 2013 8:57:28 PM
If the rains come on time and no big time floods, this could drive corn prices way down. You will not see reduction in the price at the pump though.
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Hannie59
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Appleton
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Message Posted: May 9, 2013 12:40:24 PM
I don't know borsht.... if you look at the entire corn crop for 2013 things are looking pretty good. Too early to tell, but more precip in more places over the winter will certainly bode well...
If I had to bet on it I think supply, will be huge by late AUG.
But pricing is different. As you know in most commodities, it has nothing to do w/ supply and demand anyway. If it did we'd be looking at gas at 2.79 right now.
You'll have corn supply out the wazoo most likely.
[Edited by: Hannie59 at 5/9/2013 12:43:34 PM EST]
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