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Author Topic: Mounting evidence that peak Corn Ethanol is ... here... Back to Topics
reb4

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Message Posted: Mar 25, 2012 8:08:22 PM

Study Suggests Corn Ethanol Can’t Get There From Here

This is based on the following:

Bioenergy Potential of the United States Constrained by Satellite Observations of Existing Productivity

"While EISA energy targets are theoretically achievable, we show that meeting these targets utilizing current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current crop harvest or the conversion of 60% of rangeland productivity. Accordingly, realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential are critical for effective incorporation of bioenergy into the national energy portfolio"

Bloomberg article...
"Global inventories of wheat and soybeans are falling more than forecast, while U.S. corn reserves head to a 16-year low, as farmers fail to keep pace with rising demand for food, livestock feed and biofuel.

Global food prices tracked by the United Nations rose for a second consecutive month in February on higher costs for cereals, cooking oils and sugar."

And theres more, read the articles.

[Edited by: reb4 at 3/25/2012 8:08:53 PM EST]
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rugby2
Rookie Author Kalamazoo

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Message Posted: Dec 15, 2012 11:24:14 AM

in Brazil they do not make ethanol from corn. and a Fusion is considered a limo
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rugby2
Rookie Author Kalamazoo

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Message Posted: Dec 15, 2012 11:22:11 AM

any one with the sense god gave green apples should be up set with the bill of goods the ethanol industry is forcing on the consumer and the tax payer. an example of lobbyist at their worst. how can they look at them self in the morning when they try to shave? Ethanol is not good for the air, gas mileage, drives up cost of driving. adds to the deficient(tax subsidies) drives up cost of food (effecting people who don't even drive) if it was so good, they wouldn't need a tax subsidy now would they?
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13Octane
Champion Author Tucson

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 11:58:12 AM

is this more smoke and mirrors?
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Gas_Eyes
Champion Author Dallas

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Message Posted: Dec 4, 2012 9:13:43 AM

We need to reduce the ethanol 10% to five.
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Dennis783
Champion Author Des Moines

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Message Posted: Dec 4, 2012 8:18:46 AM

Had to laugh... peak oil THEORY is bad enough, now peak ethanol?
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reb4
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Message Posted: Dec 1, 2012 1:45:27 PM

As the ethanol protection agency continues to push for ways to increase ethanol use, more and more evidence

New E15 Gasoline May Damage Vehicles and Cause Consumer Confusion

AAA in their website lists a long explanation why this should be put on hold...

About AAA

"AAA was founded over 100 years ago for the purpose of lobbying for driver and passenger rights, fair laws and safer vehicles — all to better promote the love of the open road and the adventure of driving. Since then, AAA has grown to over 50 million members strong, while providing valuable membership services such as roadside assistance. Additionally, AAA has broadened its horizons to include all types of travel-related services, as well as offer a variety of insurance and financial products and services."
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Cummins2500
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2012 3:38:55 PM

At the CO-Op just blocks from my house E85 is priced at $2.99, Super with ethanol (91 Octane) is $3.29 thus its still not prices low enough to use it. Based on our mpg numbers E85 would have to be $1.00 a gallon lower then E10 to get the same CPM(cost per mile)as E10.

[Edited by: Cummins2500 at 11/8/2012 3:40:28 PM EST]
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reb4
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2012 11:19:37 PM

GM1954, Did you use that same vehicle with e10 for 100K miles as well?
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reb4
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2012 11:12:41 PM

then again, e85 is not always cheaper - according to this story

This story seems to be quite active in the recent news for gasbuddy site.

"Automakers like GM ship a handy reference card with their cars in Brazil, a table that allows motorists to see at a glance which fuel they should use based on current prices.

In the United States, the situation is far more complicated, according to Jones.

E85 is government shorthand for a blend of 85 percent ethanol and 15 percent gasoline. But the actual percentage of ethanol in the fuel can vary widely — from 83 percent to just 51 percent. And regular gasoline can contain up to 10 percent ethanol — in some cases, as much as 15 percent.

In many parts of the U.S., consumers have no way of knowing which blend they are getting. So Jones said it would be impossible for GM to provide its customers with the same sort of card it produces for Brazilian drivers."

I think this is the article shockjock1961 attempted to post

now of course there are some people that want to use not to save money, which is an option to consider...

[Edited by: reb4 at 10/8/2012 11:17:53 PM EST]
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2012 9:51:25 AM

I'm sure it does. You get less miles per $ than if you had used good old gasoline. [L=http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20121008/AUTO01/210080342/Even-with-high-gas-prices--E85-makes-little-sense]"Typically, it's hard to make an economic case for using E85," acknowledged Coleman Jones, head of alternative fuels for General Motors Co. At least in the United States."
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2012 9:45:38 AM

"I'm sure it does. You get less miles per $ than if you had used good old gasoline."

Wrong. We've driven over 100,000 miles on E85. The fuel economy is indistinguishable from regular gasoline. Price at the pump is between 30 and 70 cents less than gasoline.

"As far as your use of the Gadsden Flag, (Don't tread on me), how do you justify your support of more government interference in the buying choices of Americans?"

Get real. Didya whine about MTBE. Ethanol replaces that. If you don't like what the EPA forces you to do, elect politicians who will place restraints on the organization or eliminate it. But, the "mandate" rhetoric is a poor excuse for an objection to ethanol.

The main reason I support and use ethanol is it's made from a domestic raw material. In the past ten years ethanol has displaced over 10% of our petroleum based transportation fuel, eliminated tens of billions in ag subsidies, created a market for products produced by US citizens, and generated tens of billions in US tax revenue. Those are good things.
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tomintx
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Message Posted: Oct 8, 2012 12:33:20 AM

GM1954 - Furthermore, the single fuel we purchase most often is E85. It impacts us.

I'm sure it does. You get less miles per $ than if you had used good old gasoline.

As far as your use of the Gadsden Flag, (Don't tread on me), how do you justify your support of more government interference in the buying choices of Americans? Maybe you should find a Hammer and Sickle flag you can use.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 11:10:42 PM

2010 avg barrels sold per day - 8,993,000

Contrast that number -

2010 avg barrels sold per day - 5,900

There in lies the myth of ethanol...

8,993,000
0,005,900

and e85 has 15% (actually more ) gasoline in it..

More drivers need to use this to make a difference...

Of course the vast (noisy majority) are putting NON e85 fuel in their vehciles.

Ethanol industry realized it, and thats why the push for e15...

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reb4
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Message Posted: Sep 30, 2012 6:53:03 PM

Ethanol industry is indicating they are getting to the blend wall... New Poet President

As an exercise... I scanned for e85 to see how many occurences appear in the above article, need to scan both page 1 and 2... That was a total of "0".

Scan for e15 = there were 5 occurrences...

Maybe what should be done is more e85 should be sold to people with ffv's...
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olympusman2004
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 12:12:22 AM

As long as I can still get some popcorn. I really dont care..lol
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Banjoe
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Message Posted: Aug 12, 2012 7:39:04 AM

Thanks for that article reb4 and for offering logical defence to the various nutty attacks.

We need more like you who try to discuss things intelligently and get to the truth & science of the matter instead of spinning circular logic, expounding political platforms, and the rest of the usual drivel that is thrown to derail reasoned conversation.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 11, 2012 10:23:02 AM

Ethanol industry feeling the squeeze cutting back as corn prices lower profits...



[Edited by: reb4 at 8/11/2012 10:24:17 AM EST]
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 9:21:37 AM

"ethanol from corn is very limited in it's impact, and e85 and those that use it is even less. "

Ethanol represents approximately 10% of the fuel used in the gasoline market. That's far from limited impact. Furthermore, the single fuel we purchase most often is E85. It impacts us.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 9:00:13 AM

ethanol from corn is very limited in it's impact, and e85 and those that use it is even less.
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 8:41:36 AM

"If people are running out, en mass, and filling their FFV's with E85 as GC and the other corn crew claim, how could there possibly a blend wall? "

When reasoning lowers to the point of "blend wall", you are running out of bullets.
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 8:28:55 AM

If people are running out, en mass, and filling their FFV's with E85 as GC and the other corn crew claim, how could there possibly a blend wall?
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reb4
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 9:18:33 PM

...Ethanol producers brace for fight from Congress, oil industryLooks like with the blend wall making this more of an issue that will come to a head...
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reb4
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Message Posted: Jun 3, 2012 10:42:47 PM

looks like south dakota will start to lose there choice to use ethanol free fuel...

Wonder if this is due to the ethanol blend wall...

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reb4
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Message Posted: May 31, 2012 11:08:00 PM

see we are moving off topic,

"From the article:"The blend wall has important implications for ethanol production and consumption after 2012. In particular, the maximum levels of ethanol blending under current 10 percent blend restrictions may soon be less than the RFS blending requirements. The requirements for renewable biofuel blending was at 12.6 billion gallons in 2011; is at 13.2 billion gallons this year; and increases to 13.8 billion in 2013, 14.4 billion in 2014 and 15 billion in 2015. It seems highly likely that the blend wall will be binding in 2013 and this will constrain domestic ethanol consumption to be less than the RFS mandate of 13.8 billion gallons."

Now, as I stated many times before, if the owners of FFV that are able to use e85 would use it when available, this would not be a problem... Looks like may need to make some changes in the laws and useage...

[Edited by: reb4 at 5/31/2012 11:08:56 PM EST]
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krzysiek_ck
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Message Posted: May 31, 2012 3:07:44 PM

xtcbct wrote: "Ethanol has no petroleum in it until mixed with actual gasoline. thus the higher percentage of ethanal, the more damage to gaskets/seals and anything rubber will occur and be dried out."

Since goldseeker already did a great job on the subject, I'm reposting.

goldseeker wrote: "That simply is not true. This is nothing more than typical anti-ethanol rhetoric. When you look Compatibility charts maintained by the real experts on compatibility you will find that this argument is nothing more than a false statement.

Click on the handy link I have provided. Go to the Chemical column and scroll down to ethanol. On the left column scroll down to natural rubber. Click on the see results button. You will be surprised to find that ethanol and natural rubber has a excellent rating. Now lets go back and use rubber again and this time for the chemical use gasoline unleaded. Now look at the results. Severe effect! Surprised? I was somewhat surprised, for the argument that the anti-ethanol crowd has been posting for years was starting to resonate with me also. I wasn't too concerned as I knew that natural rubber was not used any more in todays modern engines. Actually in many cases it had been replaced with neoprene, especially in fuels line hoses.

Now lets try the same comparison on the site again. Ethanol and neoprene. Same result..excellent! Now lets try gasoline. This time gasoline gets a B rating of good. But remember ethanol has an excellent rating of A. Now lets try ABS plastic. Ethanol comes in with a B rating of good. Gasoline comes in at D, severe effect. I could go on and on, but it is plain to see that ethanol in many cases is far better than gasoline when it comes to compatibility issues.

This chart by Cole Palmer is no fluke. ."Dupont's Chemical Resistance Guide will give you similar results. I find that this guide is easier and quicker to use as it shows several elastomer resistant guides to chemicals at one time. When you use the Dupont chart choose Ethyl Alcohol.

If you have time you might also want to check other common components of todays gasoline blends. Benzene, toluene, and xylene. These are know cancer causing agents and in many cases are very detrimental to common elastomers used in todays modern engines.

I am not going to tell you that ethanol is perfect in every case, however it is quite evident that it is far better than gasoline on many elastomers used in todays engines.

It just goes to show you that the real experts at Cole Palmer and Dupont are not fools.

When you factor in the results compiled by the real experts it is quite evident that the members of the anti-ethanol crowd are blowing a lot of smoke."

[Edited by: krzysiek_ck at 5/31/2012 3:08:19 PM EST]
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xtcbct
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Message Posted: May 31, 2012 2:39:48 PM

Ethanol has no petroleum in it until mixed with actual gasoline. thus the higher percentage of ethanal, the more damage to gaskets/seals and anything rubber will occur and be dried out.
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 31, 2012 2:18:29 PM

End of Ethanol boom approaching....

From the article:"The blend wall has important implications for ethanol production and consumption after 2012. In particular, the maximum levels of ethanol blending under current 10 percent blend restrictions may soon be less than the RFS blending requirements. The requirements for renewable biofuel blending was at 12.6 billion gallons in 2011; is at 13.2 billion gallons this year; and increases to 13.8 billion in 2013, 14.4 billion in 2014 and 15 billion in 2015. It seems highly likely that the blend wall will be binding in 2013 and this will constrain domestic ethanol consumption to be less than the RFS mandate of 13.8 billion gallons."

Now, as I stated many times before, if the owners of FFV that are able to use e85 would use it when available, this would not be a problem... Looks like may need to make some changes in the laws...
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 10, 2012 5:17:32 PM



Link to article below...E15 is a fuel whose time hasn't yet come

[Edited by: reb4 at 5/10/2012 5:18:05 PM EST]
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SilverStreaker
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Message Posted: May 10, 2012 4:59:45 PM

timmyC4, unless you are willing to buy me a new car, I'm putting as much ethanol that I can in the one that I have.
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timmyC4
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Message Posted: May 10, 2012 11:51:36 AM

Why bother with worrying about ethanol?
I have a 96 Passat TDI It's got 270k on it, runs like a top. Changed the timing belt, oil and tires is about all I've done.
I get 52mpg consistantly at 72mph. Why bother with ethanol?

Read this.

http://timesfreepress.com/news/2012/may/08/chattanooga-made-vw-passat-sets-mileage-record/
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 10, 2012 7:38:39 AM

[L=http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/text deleted latest battle between Big Oil and Big Corn may be coming soon to a gas station near you.[/L]

"The gas caps on new Toyotas even feature a warning -- "Up to E10 gasoline only" -- that contradicts the EPA's recommendation. The Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, representing 12 car companies, has called for further testing."

"Station owners worry that the new fuel will corrode pumps and underground pipes that weren't designed for E15."

"This year's target of 13.2 billion gallons is reachable, but getting to 36 billion gallons by 2022 requires breaking through the "blend wall," the theoretical point where every gallon of gasoline sold contains 10 percent ethanol."

ha, ha, ha, Ethanol will need to have a lot more help than the experts are presenting...
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GM1954
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Message Posted: May 10, 2012 6:49:45 AM

"Did you know that air oxidizes ethanol into vinegar by pulling off its hydrogen atoms? "

Does that mean, when I use E85, I get vinegar and oil salad dressing out the exhaust pipe?
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Waterman66
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 9:09:09 PM

Pettyeddie wrote "Did you know that air oxidizes ethanol into vinegar by pulling off its hydrogen atoms? "

Do you want to show the formula for the chemical conversion for this???? I've seen wine turn to vinegar. Never have had my whiskey turn to vinegar however.


[Edited by: Waterman66 at 5/9/2012 9:09:57 PM EST]
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 9:00:11 PM

The ethanol blend wall is still a reality for the industry, according to the chief economist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

of course some of the well of ethanol fans could put their money where their mouths are and buy a boarded up gas station and convert it to an ethanol pumping station...

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GM1954
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 4:00:26 PM

"gm1904, is that 30Billion dollars based on the upchuck figures in the report paid for by the ethanol industry?"

NO, it's simple mental math: 14 billion gallons of ethanol, times the wholesale price of ethanol, minus the fraction of corn used to make the ethanol. If you use the whole price of gasoline that the ethanol displaces, it a lot more than $30 billion. You don't need a study or someone on the internet to think for you.
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krzysiek_ck
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 2:51:28 PM

PettyEddie2012 wrote: "Did you know that air oxidizes ethanol into vinegar by pulling off its hydrogen atoms?"

Did you know General Forum Guidelines state:

"3. Back up your arguments with facts. Where possible, facts should be supported by a link to a respected Internet source."
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 2:17:15 PM

gm1904, is that 30Billion dollars based on the upchuck figures in the report paid for by the ethanol industry?
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PettyEddie2012
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 10:49:03 AM

Did you know that air oxidizes ethanol into vinegar by pulling off its hydrogen atoms?
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GM1954
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 10:14:50 AM

"ethanol is a very small alternative to fuel requirements of the US.."

So, what. Cars were a small alternative to US transportation needs in 1900. The horse was it and nothing could replace the horse. Just because something is not purchased today does not mean it can't be produced.

That aside, 14 billion gallons of ethanol last year is about 10% of US transportation fuel. It might not seem like a big number. But, take that 14 billion gallons out of the fuel supply and the consumer pays more for gasoline.

In addition, the value of that fuel is in excess of $30 billion. That is the amount that stays in the US, predominately the Midwest. $30 billion might seem like small potatoes as well, based on how much our government spends. But, again, its big money that benefits US citizens. That's money that stays in the US, employs people, and generates tax revenue. Thats a good thing.

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reb4
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 9:21:42 AM

ethanol is a very small alternative to fuel requirements of the US..
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GM1954
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 8:15:38 AM

Back to the article, above. If this article was close to being accurate, it would be reflected int he price farmers sell grain. Both corn and soybean price futures contracts are dropping. Corn sells for between $6.5 and $7, today. Some near term futures contracts are below $5. There is no supply issue with US grain.

Yield continues to grow and the US has a surplus of cropland, in the tens of millions of acres, that is not even in production. We have surpluses of grain today and for decades or even centuries, with or without ethanol production.
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GM1954
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Message Posted: May 9, 2012 7:56:07 AM

Reb4, only 30% of users knowing they can use E85 in their flexfuel car is not surprising. As a general rule, in business, 80% of any given company's business will be generated by 20% of it's current customers. It just appears flexfuel car owners are ahead of the game.
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 8, 2012 1:10:01 PM

Ethanol plants look for revenue, cost cuts

"A large bottleneck on ethanol growth, he said, is a vast majority of flex-fuel vehicle owners are unaware they can use E85, and it is likely they don't know where they can buy E15, E85 and blends in between.

Education campaigns are needed involving automakers and E85 retailers. He said surveys suggest 70 percent of Americans don't know the FFV capability, which reduces the 9 million FFV vehicles in the U.S. to between 1 million and 2 million."

Interesting analysis of the issues at hand with Ethanol market...
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reb4
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Message Posted: May 1, 2012 8:36:26 AM

Wow, thanks for telling everyone how you feel about goldman sachs and the hedge fund operators... Appreciate understanding how you feel about it.
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Apr 30, 2012 11:44:58 PM

"What about banks and financial organizations which have no intent on taking delivery of product but are doing the speculation to make money? Are you indicating you are in favor of that?"

Heck yes, I'm in favor of it. It's hard to sell without a buyer and vice versa. I don't know of too many banks speculating on grain. But, a private brokerage firm can do what they want. Farmers and food processors use options contracts to hedge the market, so you have lower cost food. Most people consider that a good thing.

When brokerage firms or individuals who do not have in their posession or can take reciept of grain fall short, they have to come up with the money to buy on the open market to fill the options contracts they entered into. If an individual makes or loses money, that is of no concern or consequence to you whatsoever.

You are buying into too much progressive propaganda.

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reb4
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Message Posted: Apr 27, 2012 12:51:22 PM

GM1954, your examples use hedging. What about banks and financial organizations which have no intent on taking delivery of product but are doing the speculation to make money? Are you indicating you are in favor of that?

Goldman Sachs food speculation in 90's

Yes, they took lead in 90's but now there is potential for added speculation since corn is not only used as food, but also ethanol, which is mandated adds more pressure on the market.

personally I believe only organizations that can actually take delivery of products should be able to by futures... maybe stipulation they can only purchase future of 2x's (or some percent) of what they have purchased before or they have to take delivery of the remaining amount that they "speculated" on...
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Apr 25, 2012 10:45:26 AM

"And helps in fueling speculation which has come in to play since corn is now a comodity for energy..."

"Speculators", which includes farmers, good processors, and ethanol producers have been buying and selling options on grain for centuries. These "speculation" tools are used as an insurance policy for producers. They buy and sell product and materials months and years in advance in order to stay in business. "Speculation" is not a bad thing.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Apr 25, 2012 9:48:44 AM

Agricultural research at it's finest...

And helps in fueling speculation which has come in to play since corn is now a comodity for energy...

Good point Silverstreaker.
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SilverStreaker
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Message Posted: Apr 25, 2012 12:44:59 AM

The main question being pondered by reb4's "new study": Will warmer weather add up to more price volatility?

Your tax dollars paid for this "study".
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Apr 24, 2012 11:34:32 PM

"New study shows rising ethanol demand and future climate change scenarios may cause even more volatility for corn prices."

...and rain is wet. Any other earth shattering observations?
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