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Author Topic: How much is it costing us to defend our oil interests in the Persian Gulf? Back to Topics
gamechanger2011

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Message Posted: Mar 14, 2012 1:05:18 AM

The next step in this policy “proof” is to determine the importance of oil among all of our interests in the Persian Gulf. Although it is not well known, numerous military planning documents and senior officials have clearly stated that our overall military objective in the region is to preserve U.S. and western access to the oil. Given this, two specific questions need to be addressed: 1) if we start with our estimate of the total cost of defending all interests in the region, what fraction of that is related to oil interests specifically, and 2) what is the nature of the relationship? I estimate that over 50 percent of the total cost of defending the Persian Gulf is related to oil, and that this annual defense cost is proportional to the annual amount or value of oil produced there.

Expected wartime costs related to oil can be estimated roughly by multiplying the annual probabilities of regional wars of various magnitudes by the estimated annualized cost of such wars and the fraction of wartime costs that are “attributable” to oil. Considering that the Iraq war will end up costing on the order of a trillion dollars, and that there is evidence that the desire to protect our access to oil is a major factor in the U.S. response to conflicts in the region, I estimate that if there were no oil in the Middle East, the United States would reduce wartime military spending by up to $10 billion per year. Note that this is specifically an estimate of monetary costs; it does not include the very real costs of lives lost and catastrophic injuries, which perhaps could add billions of dollars per year to the total. It also does not include the virtually impossible-to-quantify geo-political costs of wars and U.S. Persian Gulf policy in general.

Finally, after accounting for the portion of the oil defense cost that is not related to the consumption of highway fuels in the United States (roughly half), the bottom line is that oil used by all motor vehicles in the United States (light-duty and heavy-duty) carries a modest premium: the price of peacetime-plus-wartime defense spending comes to somewhere between $3 billion to $30 billion per year, over the long haul. This amounts to about $0.02 to almost $0.20 per gallon of all gasoline and diesel motor fuel used in 2004. While not necessarily trivial, this range is lower than other analysts have estimated, and lower than other environmental- and energy-related external costs of motor-fuel use.
Cost of protecting oil interests in the Persian Gulf
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
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djp071158
Champion Author Detroit

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Message Posted: Jan 15, 2013 5:03:31 AM

Too much.
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jan 15, 2013 12:29:02 AM

Too much.
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13Octane
Champion Author Tucson

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Message Posted: Dec 11, 2012 11:59:21 AM

considering we have the means to produce similar and alternative fuel that makes sense, the ONLY reason to be involved with the middle east is our ally, Israel.. That's it. But... we made this bed and we have to sleep in it.
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goldseeker
Champion Author West Virginia

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 9:00:16 AM

Way to much.
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goinwgas
Champion Author Oregon

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Message Posted: Dec 2, 2012 1:59:48 AM

i thought this topic was all things ethanol
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goldseeker
Champion Author West Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2012 4:50:32 AM

"So what we are currently doing is practicing, just in case something happens that we need to get serious." LOL!

Maybe this guy needs to volunteer his services to the Persian Gulf.
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Oct 16, 2012 11:38:45 PM

I don't call spending $10 billion per year or sacrificing our soldiers lives "nothing".
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GrumpyCat
Champion Author Alabama

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Message Posted: Oct 16, 2012 5:20:08 PM

It costs nothing to "defend our oil interests in the Persian Gulf."

We need defense, whether we use it or not.

Our enemies get more frightened of us every day BECAUSE of the experience we are gaining in the battlefield. Can't develop bigger and better nuclear weapons because we are not willing to use them. But we are learning a lot about battlefield operations. In comparison we were idiots the way we ran things in Vietnam.

So what we are currently doing is practicing, just in case something happens that we need to get serious.
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Oct 16, 2012 10:46:57 AM

Iranians plan oil spill to block Hormuz strait

"The aim is to block shipping temporarily through the contamination, to 'punish' adjacent Arab states that are hostile to Iran and to force the West to take part in a large-scale cleanup of the waters - and possibly thereby a suspension of sanctions against Tehran"

"Iranian firms, some of them owned by the Revolutionary Guards, could even profit from the rescue operations."
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 10, 2012 9:10:10 AM

"We stop exporting alot of our crude overseas"

I don't believe we sell "a lot" of our crude overseas. We do sell a significant amount of finished product, but that's not the same thing as crude...
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 10, 2012 9:08:42 AM

Iraq is a free country. They can sell their oil to whomever they wish..
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Ray
Veteran Author Toronto

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Message Posted: Oct 10, 2012 6:19:12 AM

China steps in and starts pumping oil after thousands of US soldiers are sacrificed...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37577656/ns/business-oil_and_energy/t/china-reaps-benefits-iraq-war/
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BigHorne1
Champion Author Missouri

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Message Posted: Oct 10, 2012 1:26:33 AM

We stop exporting alot of our crude overseas, we would have cheaper gas here, and not depend on the middle east so much.
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krzysiek_ck
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 9, 2012 4:58:20 PM

Shockjock1961 continues to be the armchair expert in running a successful business. What exactly Shockjock1961 do you do for a living?

I'm still waiting for the answer Shockjock1961.
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 9, 2012 4:55:58 PM

"There are many different facets to the C store business. Selling gasoline is just one of them."

I know enough to know that if you are losing money on a product (as you claim you are) then you drop product...
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 9:00:58 PM

It would appear so Silverstreaker. Can't blame me for trying! :)
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 8:06:19 PM

GC, you are trying to explain to someone with no business sense - and little common sense.
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 7:52:11 PM

I think that you meant "lose" money not "loose" money. There are many different facets to the C store business. Selling gasoline is just one of them.

Small business owners create jobs and help the economy. I have seen some major C store owners/companies go under lately. It's a very tough business to be in in these tough economic times. You have to make a profit margin inside the store to survive. We are very hands on and are doing great. Unfortunately not all are.
PCF Saleco Owes $1.65 Million: Court Documents

This was a huge company that just recently went under and closed down many Phillips 66 locations.



[Edited by: gamechanger2011 at 10/7/2012 7:55:16 PM EST]
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krzysiek_ck
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 7:51:34 PM

Shockjock1961 wrote: "That doesn't seem like a very good business plan..."

Shockjock1961 is now also the armchair expert in running a successful business. What exactly Shockjock1961 do you do for a living?

[Edited by: krzysiek_ck at 10/7/2012 7:52:29 PM EST]
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 6:15:46 PM

"Shocky...we are in the C store and fuel business. It's just part of the business"

So you are in the business to loose money?

That doesn't seem like a very good business plan...
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 3:10:42 PM

Shocky...we are in the C store and fuel business. It's just part of the business.

You on the other hand have never told anyone what you do for a living....
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 12:03:13 PM

So once again, GC, why do you sell gasoline if you make no money doing so? Afraid to answer the question are you?
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krzysiek_ck
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2012 11:13:36 AM

reb4 wrote: "But then there are those that like to cling to bumper sticker slogans and not face reality..."

Maybe you should follow your own advice.

Interesting this is the second article by this author that you have posted and this one is not any closer to the truth than the first one.
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2012 7:45:49 PM

That's what the Big Oil companies said when they tried retail.
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2012 7:04:22 PM

"Clearly Shocky has no clue about the gas business. There is rarely any margin selling gas....especially in our part of the country."

Then why sell gasoline at all then?
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2012 4:56:18 PM

Is the U.S. Military Presence in the Middle East a Subsidy for Big Oil?

But then there are those that like to cling to bumper sticker slogans and not face reality...

It's funny that the author is of the article quoted by gc2011 is really promoting hydrogen and electric vehicles, and not ethanol use..

The person writing this link owns an Electric Leaf...
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2012 4:13:46 PM

Haha....I just read Shocky's post...""What a hypocrite! GC says this while profiting from the sale of the product she/he complains about us protecting!
Clearly Shocky has no clue about the gas business. There is rarely any margin selling gas....especially in our part of the country. Even the Big Oil companies know that. That's why the majority of them got out of the retail side by selling. They prefer to be on the supply side where there is a profit margin.

[Edited by: gamechanger2011 at 10/6/2012 4:14:21 PM EST]
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Oct 6, 2012 3:32:18 PM

How much is it costing us to defend our ethanol interests in the Persian Gulf? Zero!
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Aug 10, 2012 12:03:16 AM

"I'm with Silverstreaker and TimmyC4...WAY too much!"

LOL!!!

What a hypocrite! GC says this while profiting from the sale of the product she/he complains about us protecting!
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Banjoe
Champion Author Winnipeg

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Message Posted: Aug 7, 2012 5:22:38 PM

Don't care what it costs just appreciative that those boys and girls are out there taking care of business.
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gamechanger2011
Champion Author Wichita

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Message Posted: Aug 7, 2012 12:06:00 PM

I'm with Silverstreaker and TimmyC4...WAY too much!

[Edited by: gamechanger2011 at 8/7/2012 12:06:53 PM EST]
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goldseeker
Champion Author West Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 5, 2012 1:51:12 AM

Way tooooo much.
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Aug 4, 2012 11:43:55 PM

reb4, Shockjock1961 must feel good having one person that believes everything he says.
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Aug 4, 2012 10:42:57 PM

"I can fly.
I can hold my breath for over an hour."

Impressive SIlverStreaker.

Kinda fitting for this posting...
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Aug 4, 2012 7:51:16 PM

Exactly, timmyC4!
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timmyC4
Veteran Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 4:20:11 PM

Too Much.
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krzysiek_ck
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 11:26:26 AM

Shockjock1961 wrote: "I served 8 years in the military (Army)."

With your claimed military knowledge most of these years had to be spent in Washington at the Pentagon. What was your office number?
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 10:46:07 AM

"I think that Shockjock's earlier post was written chronologically"

You assume. Your assumption is incorrect...
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 9:59:06 AM

Shockjock1961 says "That earlier post does not disagree with any thing I've said today.."

I can fly.
I can hold my breath for over an hour.
I think that Shockjock's earlier post was written chronologically. It doesn't disagree with his latest statement, but it sure doesn't agree.
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 9:02:07 AM

"LOL! I guess I was wrong to assume you didn't lie in a earlier post!"

So where did I lie?

That earlier post does not disagree with any thing I've said today...
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 8:47:55 AM

shockjock1961, thank you for serving our country in the army.
If the Persian gulf region was "blew up" there would likely be gas rationing and there would be a major war...

and U.S. gets a small amount of oil from that region...

from 58 - 68 million barrels a month

Yet Ethanol makes up less than a million barrels a month..

As I said before, if the persian gulf oil was cut off, everyone would suffer...
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tropicalmn
Veteran Author Minnesota

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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 8:42:50 AM

LOL! I guess I was wrong to assume you didn't lie in a earlier post!

Topic: Golden image of corn-based ethanol shows some erosion
Message Posted: Sep 12, 2008 9:50:07 AM
Ignore Shockjock1961 Report Abuse

Alright I will. I worked for Mcdonalds and as a car detailer during high school, spent 8 years in the military, attended college for four years, worked for an electronics firm for 3 years, and have been employed at a Universities Physics Dept for the last 20.
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Jun 6, 2012 8:26:35 AM

"Of course the major perk for choosing to enlist for 8 years then was that Uncle Sam was offering substantial check to subsidize the cost of your College education when you were done with the military"

LOL!!

1. I went to College before I entered the military.

2. Who says I enlisted?

3. Are you claiming that those who volunteered to sacrifice so much for this country are not deserving of the benefits they received?

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tropicalmn
Veteran Author Minnesota

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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 11:55:38 PM

Shockjock1961 wrote:” I served 8 years in the military (Army).”


Of course the major perk for choosing to enlist for 8 years then was that Uncle Sam was offering substantial check to subsidize the cost of your College education when you were done with the military. Yet you proclaim to have never received any subsidies in your life & are against all subsidies.

[Edited by: tropicalmn at 6/5/2012 11:57:17 PM EST]
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 2:37:26 PM

>>>krzysiek_ck asks Shocky "You sure claim to know everything about military. What are your credentials or military rank?"<<<

I served 8 years in the military (Army). How many years did you serve SS?
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 11:19:15 AM

"You are trying to claim that US ethanol production would not help our fuel demand if Middle East imports were cut off?"

It can't replace what we currently import. Are you trying to claim that if they cut us off, production of ethanol would "magically" compensate for the loss?

LOL!!

Yah, and carbohydrates (starch) are not a nutrient!

LOL!!!
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SilverStreaker
Champion Author Twin Cities

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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 10:43:05 AM

Shockjock1961, I see that logic is yet another subject that you struggle with. You are trying to claim that US ethanol production would not help our fuel demand if Middle East imports were cut off? Your reason is that we import oil. Your logic has holes so big you can drive a truck through.

krzysiek_ck, I think the answer to one of your questions is "Rear Admiral".
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Jun 5, 2012 8:50:39 AM

"brerrabbitTX, the fact is everyone would suffer if the "persian gulf" blew up... In fact, I think it's more a matter of when, but that's me"

If the Persian Gulf "blew up" would our production of ethanol do anything at all to protect us?

Well since still import oil despite the ethanol we produce the answer would have to be a resounding NO! Which makes that argument for ethanol production totally moot...
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reb4
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Message Posted: Jun 4, 2012 8:53:27 PM

silverstreaker, I hope you went back to your post from the Message Posted: Mar 14, 2012 9:01:20 PM.

I would hate to think of you researching that over again...here is the monthly import by region... One of the reasons I don't drive a suv, pickup truck, or performance vehicle...

But hey, the facts are we are addicted to energy as a country and we don't want people to tell us to cut back...

brerrabbitTX, the fact is everyone would suffer if the "persian gulf" blew up... In fact, I think it's more a matter of when, but that's me.

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brerrabbitTX
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Message Posted: Jun 4, 2012 4:37:28 PM

I hate to see young men and women die in some Middle Eastern country and certainly believe that it is a waste in many ways. However that being said I am a student of history and there are certain realities that far exceed our need for petroleum based product. Calvin Coolidge up through Herbert Hoover and for a short time even Roosevelt thought that isolanionism was the right answer. Tuck ourselves into our own business and forget the rest of the world. We still wound up in WWI and WWII. Now you can certainly argue, and many do that we over stepped our bounds in Korea and Vietnam. The primary lesson learned especially in the world we live in today is that we live in a global community and are effected by a lot of what goes on in the rest of the world. We are in Afganistan in a big way and are still trying to back our of there, but last time I checked there was not a whole lot of oil in that country.

Certainly a portion of the dollars the US spends are aimed at countries with oil reserves, but last time I checked a considerable amount of what we buy oil wise comes from South America. I don't recall that we are spending a lot of money, or a lot of effort sending troops down there. Part of the idea of spending money in the middle east is related to oil, no doubt. But also ask yourself what percentage of the money spent would still be spent if there was not a single drop of oil there. Would the US really completely abandon that part of the world? Part of the reason for a military presence in that part of the world is support and defense if necessary of Isreal. Want to talk hot button issues? Talk abou the US withdrawing support for them. It's a very sensative issue. The reality is this we spend a lot of money on defense in that part of the world, and we will continue to spend a lot of money in that part of the world even if there was no oil.

We are a big part of the worlds police force. We are the beacon of democracy in an otherwise non democratic world. I won't get into a debate about which system is better, I will just say that we in America have accepted the role and as a result we spend a lot of money to do it.

Please don't think for one minute that if tomorrow we found a viable alternative to gasoline that we will stop our military spending and bring our armed services home. That will not happen. I read some of the original article and while the total spending numbers are not something I can question at all, I do question how and if anyone could come up with what the numbers would have been taking the "oil protection" out of the equation.

I think a big part of the spending just happens to be the fact that the Bad People wanting to do bad things to the US seem to all be concetrated in an area where the also happens to be oil. How much have we spent on the Korean pennisula over the years in a non oil related defense posture?
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