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Author Topic: Corn prices may increase due to significant rainfall in the East. Back to Topics
FIREJKP22

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Message Posted: May 9, 2011 5:27:21 PM

Local news just ran a story about corn prices possibly increasing due to tons of rainfall lately in the east. The soil is way too moist to work with and farmers are reporting that they won't be able to harvest as early as they usually do, and may not be able to grow as much corn this year due to this.

I'm sure Ethanol will be blamed for this though. Cause the use of Ethanol magically makes it rain all the time nowadays. haha!
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goldseeker
Champion Author West Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2012 11:19:40 AM

Too much snow now to complete harvest.
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jay93LA
Champion Author New Orleans

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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2012 7:47:44 AM

not enough now too much rain corn is for food not fuel
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jacksfan
Champion Author Lincoln

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Message Posted: Aug 29, 2012 9:54:14 AM

"what's your beef?"

Ignorant people like you who don't want to be bothered by understanding anything about the realities of agriculture.
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Aug 29, 2012 9:16:34 AM

waterman66, what does food stamps have to do with crop insurance? Are you indicating that this waste is not as much as in the food programs offered so we should look the other way? Or there is more waste in the food assistance programs so this waste is better? I don't quite follow are arguement...

With regards to the lower costs for bailing out businesses you are right, so the tax payers are saving tons of money in this area. Thanks, and when Farmers tell the tax payers who are underwriting the risk by over 60 % on insurance they have no right to tell farmers what crops to plant, or to sell in the us when they can make more selling to foreign entities, I can clearly see your arguement.

Thanks.

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terfar77
Champion Author Buffalo

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Message Posted: Aug 29, 2012 6:09:04 AM

ok
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GM1954
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Aug 28, 2012 10:08:15 PM

Spent the past few days in Iowa. Lots of corn willbe well below average. But, the fields planted early are doing OK. They developed root structure to survive the dry July.

We've gotten small amounts of intermittent rain through August. This is the period soybeans need water. The beans look great.

Corn is being picked now. We'll see what happens.
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Shockjock1961
Champion Author Illinois

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Message Posted: Aug 28, 2012 6:15:24 PM

"The largest part of the Ag bill is no longer about ag"

Since the portion of the Ag bill that actually deals with Ag is nothing more then WELFARE itself, what's your beef?
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Waterman66
Champion Author Colorado

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Message Posted: Aug 28, 2012 4:55:55 PM

Yes there are direct payments and subsidies to insurance. Those costs are much lower than those associated with assistance or disaster payments that were made in the past. Those should never come back into play and most producers don't want them as they have the insurance to protect their interests.

However, Mrs Speier is getting into this tit for tat because of the propsed cut to food stamps. The largest part of the Ag bill is no longer about ag but welfare (food stamps).Ok, Reb, here is the statement she made. "“It’s ridiculous for Big Ag interests to claim they need all these taxpayer subsidies — $9 billion in 2011 alone — to feed people, while they support a bill that would cut nutrition assistance by $16.5 billion,” Speier wrote in an email to the Daily Journal.Here is another comment of her's. “It’s not fair that taxpayers foot the bill for $9 billion a year in crop insurance premiums and payouts, but we are not allowed to see who benefits from government funded discounts the way we are able to see which agribusinesses receive direct payments,” Speier said in a press release.So are they going to release statements with the names of those who get food stamps????
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stickyvalves
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Message Posted: Aug 28, 2012 8:52:06 AM

Gonna get muddy this weekend; just in time for harvest.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 9:41:25 PM

as a matter of fact waterman66, i did read the article. It is very likely I would not vote for her (I honestly didn't even look as to her other affiliations). What I did check was that no one disputed the figures she used... Are you?

"The Congressional Budget Office estimates getting rid of direct payments to farmers would save taxpayers more than $66 billion over the next 10 years, but crop insurance subsidies will cost more than $90 billion over that same time period.

"Today, USDA pays, on average, 62 percent of farmers’ premiums for crop insurance and lavishes $1.3 billion a year on the insurance companies and agents that sell the policies. At current rates, taxpayers can expect to send another $90 billion to farmers and insurance companies over the next decade."

[Edited by: reb4 at 8/27/2012 9:42:53 PM EST]
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Waterman66
Champion Author Colorado

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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 8:38:37 AM

Reb4, did you read your own article??? The stupid Congress woman is bitching because they cut $16.5 billion from the food assistance program. A 2% cut in the farm program which really should be renamed to the food assistance program since farming is such a small percentage of the program.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 8:32:15 AM

It's always fun to watch people talk about how we need to support farmers, but let them sell their product and let them decide what to grow.

Dispute the figures or the facts...
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 8:01:13 AM

It's interesting that there is all this whining about government subsidy of crop insurance premiums. Yet, not a word from he antiethanol posters about the tens of billions of ag subsidies saved by the expanding ethanol market. Price supports for corn ann other grains diminished to zero, because of the increased demand for grain. Furthermore, CRP payments are going dow, because land owners are exiting the program.

This crop insurance argument is so insincere. Furthermore, it has little to do with ethanol production, as the premiums would be paid, with or without ethanol.
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Marc56
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Message Posted: Aug 27, 2012 8:00:20 AM

Time to update this thread.
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Aug 26, 2012 10:30:38 PM

"program saves taxpayers money"

Yea Jacksfan, based upon direct payment from the government.
But since the tax payers pay over 60% of the premium and in disastors like we are discussing now, will likely step up to pay shortfalls... the payment is phenominal.

On top of that, no records are given for people that get these "subsidies"!

"The Congressional Budget Office estimates getting rid of direct payments to farmers would save taxpayers more than $66 billion over the next 10 years, but crop insurance subsidies will cost more than $90 billion over that same time period.

"Today, USDA pays, on average, 62 percent of farmers’ premiums for crop insurance and lavishes $1.3 billion a year on the insurance companies and agents that sell the policies. At current rates, taxpayers can expect to send another $90 billion to farmers and insurance companies over the next decade."

Of course, i'm not a farmer, so I do have a different perspective on things.

Congress woman from California is questioning some of this as well...

[Edited by: reb4 at 8/26/2012 10:33:12 PM EST]
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jacksfan
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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2012 6:02:05 PM

"Probably because they are on the hook for both the insurance premiums with their taxes AND will have to pay for the higher food and energy prices..."

Reality: Only those ignorant enough to believe all the misinformation, lies and propaganda you spew, shocky, feel that way. Fortunately, most have enough common sense to realize that the federal crop insurance program saves taxpayers money. And, while we all would like to pay less for food, fuel, energy, housing, education ... we do spend less of our disposable income on food than ever before, not to mention, it's the safest, most abundant, most nutritious food in the world.
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waynefun
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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2012 5:45:57 PM

I would like the prices to go down so I can keep more of my money in my pocket.
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2012 4:06:19 PM

"But our city cousins will still complain about there food and fuel costs."

Probably because they are on the hook for both the insurance premiums with their taxes AND will have to pay for the higher food and energy prices...
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2012 1:24:20 PM

Tighten your belts and get ready for some tough times ahead.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2012 1:23:38 PM

The American consumer has very short memories. Politicians count on this.

If the Farm Program still included crop disaster payments instead of Fed Crop insurance premium subsidies, the taxpayer would be looking at much more costs. As it is, there are some insurance companies getting ready to write some very big checks.

But our city cousins will still complain about there food and fuel costs. By the way, they are going higher soon.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 22, 2012 1:41:53 PM

"ny on this forum have gone nuts over farmers growing corn for ethanol producers. Imagine what these same people would be saying, if they actually paid a premium to eat. The federal programs are in place to insure cheap food. So, politicians will get reelected. "

GM1954, Oh, I didn't realize that the crop for ethanol production isn't covered under the crop insurance program... thanks for clearing that up for me. (ha, ha).As far as CNN making "Declaration" , here is the actual quote... "With nearly half of the continental United States under severe drought conditions, crop insurance losses are mounting daily, according to a report from the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln released on Thursday. "Here is a link of current Droubt link from the "unreliable" USDA (that crazy group)...

Looks pretty dire to me, or is red a good thing...
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Aug 22, 2012 10:14:52 AM

"Why the subsidy? It was an effort to eliminate disaster payments to crop producers and stabilize the whole system. "

Many on this forum have gone nuts over farmers growing corn for ethanol producers. Imagine what these same people would be saying, if they actually paid a premium to eat. The federal programs are in place to insure cheap food. So, politicians will get reelected.
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Waterman66
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Message Posted: Aug 22, 2012 9:59:17 AM

Oh boy, CNN makes a declaration. Yep, their the ones that I am going to take for expert opinions. RMA oversees the federal crop insurance and subsidieses the premiums. The crop insurance companies collect the premiums from producers and the subsidy from the government. After that, the feds are not on the hook for the losses.

Why the subsidy? It was an effort to eliminate disaster payments to crop producers and stabilize the whole system.
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jacksfan
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Message Posted: Aug 22, 2012 9:50:15 AM

"WOW! Farming is much more of a welfare state then even I imagined!"

Ignorant, per usual.

You want to talk about welfare, shocky? Look in the miror, and tell us about your industry -- the welfare poster child. After all, you admit you're a welfare recipient. Thus, any time you feign opposition to welfare, it is the purest form of hypocrisy.
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Shockjock1961
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Message Posted: Aug 22, 2012 9:13:13 AM

So the taxpayer gets to pay the majority of the crop insurance premium, then has to cover the losses on top of it?

WOW! Farming is much more of a welfare state then even I imagined!
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2012 10:53:39 PM

Droubt insurance pay out could be upwards to 20 Billion

"The federal government pays on average 60 cents of every dollar of premium sold for crop insurance. On top of that, if there are losses, the federal government shares with insurers the cost of paying them. And the worse the disaster, the more of the burden is shouldered by the federal government, agricultural policy experts day."

Cummins2500, Yes, it is an interesting, Waterman66, the key is the statement that "some of the underwriting"... The part that hurts is the fact that the consumers and tax payers are the ones paying for the payments.

"Last year, the federal government recorded $11.9 billion worth of crop insurance premiums, $7.4 billion of which was paid by the government, according to figures kept by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Risk Management Agency. Crop insurance had a record breaking year in 2011 with floods, drought in the Southwest and Hurricane Irene on the East Coast costing $10.8 billion in crop insurance losses."

It will be interesting if it is 20 Billion, that would break the previous record breaker..

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Waterman66
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2012 9:42:42 PM

Cummins2500: The bad part to the answer to what you wrote above is the fact we taxpayers (that is the 51% of us who pay federal taxes @ those who don't get a full refund of the taxes we paid in) are the ones who are foot the bill in the forum of higher taxes to cover there loss.

Actually had an interesting conversation with an insurance company on this topic. The premiums are subsidized by the government. However, when an insurance company takes a policy they get insurance on a group of policies and so on and so forth down the line. Some of the underwriting eventually goes to Llyods of London.

The U.S. government is not responsible for paying the losses.
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jacksfan
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2012 2:41:35 PM

Cummin2500, it doesn't take an actuary to understand how it works: It's far less costly for the taxpayer to help cover a portion of crop insurance, which helps increase participation, which helps spread the risk, than it would be for the taxpayer to cover full disaster benefits.
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Cummins2500
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2012 12:48:35 PM

reb4:"My understanding it is subsidized in that much of expense for insurance is underwritten by government."The bad part to the answer to what you wrote above is the fact we taxpayers (that is the 51% of us who pay federal taxes @ those who don't get a full refund of the taxes we paid in) are the ones who are foot the bill in the forum of higher taxes to cover there loss.
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Waterman66
Champion Author Colorado

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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2012 8:02:31 AM

Reb4, yes most crop producers do purchase insurance. However, it doesn't do much more than cover your cost of production. Never ever heard a farmer say he was making a profit off of insurance.
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reb4
Champion Author Chicago

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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2012 8:09:35 PM

Don't most farmers purchase Crop insurance?

My understanding it is subsidized in that much of expense for insurance is underwritten by government.

Which apparently is good for some insurance companies...
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Waterman66
Champion Author Colorado

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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2012 6:53:44 PM

"Everyone that grows, sell, or represents any source of corn are going to make oodles of money for the next couple of years, "
Yep, sure are going to make lots of money when you have nothing to sell. Plenty of producers are looking at very short crops and yes they have higher prices but not enough to offset the reduction in yield.

Lets see, 50 bu/acre @ $8/bu = $400/acre

Average last year

150 bu/acre @ $5.50/bu = $825/acre

A big chunk of producers will be seeing this type of reduction in income.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2012 1:04:29 PM

"Everyone that grows, sell, or represents any source of corn are going to make oodles of money for the next couple of years, "

This country has not experienced this kind of short production year and most consumers don't understand it. This post is a classic example.

The blame everyone else mentality is in full gear.

Too bad we don't teach economics in schools anymore.
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2012 9:01:21 AM

"Everyone that grows, sell, or represents any source of corn are going to make oodles of money for the next couple of years,....."

Great concept. But, there will be a shortage of corn next year. Hard to make money selling corn you don't have.
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BigHorne1
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Message Posted: Aug 20, 2012 8:46:54 AM

Everyone that grows, sell, or represents any source of corn are going to make oodles of money for the next couple of years, while the consumer will be paying for it not just at the pumps anymore, but at the checkout counters.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2012 5:04:56 PM

"30 to 50 bu/acre estimates are pretty broad."

Keep in mind we are talking about changes from trendline yields. Do some research on US corn trendline yields.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2012 5:03:26 PM

"Speculation? There just isn't the corn out there. "

Waterman66 has it identified. The supply will not meet the demand and expect volatile prices.

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Banjoe
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Message Posted: Aug 19, 2012 8:30:34 AM

30 to 50 bu/acre estimates are pretty broad. Anyone have an up to date yield numbers yet?
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ProfDude
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Message Posted: Aug 18, 2012 6:10:22 PM

On yesterday's drive from north to south in Illinois, I was surprised at how bad the corn fields look as far north as Mazon (along route 47).

Whereas on my past drives this summer to Carbondale from the Chicago area I noted the browning fields in the south, Mazon is barely into central Illinois.

More corn was gone from the fields on this trip than a few weeks ago, and many fields in central Illinois seemed completely brown whereas I had not seen this before.

Most, but not all, bean fields looked green and had typical vertical development for this time of year. I don't know anything about yields, of course.

Tough year.
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kuang2011
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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2012 11:32:15 AM

high corn price -> higher food price
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Waterman66
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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2012 9:49:57 AM

"I think he is indicating that some of the price swings are based on speculation of futures driving up corn prices... I think there is some validity to this..."

After having seen a large chunk of the corn belt and talking with others about crop conditions, there is no speculation. In fact, USDA is overestimating corn yields by a good 15 to 20 bu/acre. USDA's estimate is a good 30 bu/acre less than trendline yields but many private agencies feel that it should be more like 40 to 50 bu/acre less.

Speculation? There just isn't the corn out there.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2012 12:09:36 AM

Grain futures are up because of demand from users more than speculators. Today's society has speculator paranoia.
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GM1954
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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2012 11:13:07 AM

" how about, hmmmmm wall street speculators and manipulators "

Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory.
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reb4
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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2012 8:33:34 AM

I think he is indicating that some of the price swings are based on speculation of futures driving up corn prices... I think there is some validity to this...
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 2:56:33 PM

Uh, RAIDER757575. Are you sure you have any idea what your statement says?
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RAIDER757575
Sophomore Author Orange County

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Message Posted: Aug 15, 2012 9:43:42 AM

too much rain...not enough rain... how about, hmmmmm wall street speculators and manipulators
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Cummins2500
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Message Posted: Aug 13, 2012 1:29:18 PM

Well the total rain fall in my area was 0.70 and yes it was nice but it was a bit cool in the 60-62 range.
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stickyvalves
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 12, 2012 10:45:37 PM

Slow rainfall all day in central Iowa. Best day of the summer.
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Cummins2500
Champion Author Iowa

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Message Posted: Aug 12, 2012 7:45:30 PM

Today we have gotten 0.52 rain the best part is that it has come down slow that should at least help the soy & corn field that are not brown.
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jay93LA
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Message Posted: Aug 12, 2012 10:03:06 AM

tough year but farming has always been ups and down
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