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Author Topic: What are the odds in winning the gas cards. Back to Topics
pt1KY

Champion Author
Lexington

Posts:1,316
Points:289,640
Joined:Jun 2013
Message Posted: Sep 16, 2013 8:29:15 PM

Does any body know how the gas card winners are picked?
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GOBUTLER
Champion Author Indianapolis

Posts:1,557
Points:631,800
Joined:Dec 2011
Message Posted: Feb 13, 2014 7:54:22 AM

forgot about the tickets… should probably spend some today, maybe a lucky day...
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captcarl5
Champion Author Pennsylvania

Posts:2,041
Points:504,215
Joined:Oct 2012
Message Posted: Feb 5, 2014 1:32:49 PM

depends on # of entries
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quiltergal
Champion Author Hamilton

Posts:6,195
Points:1,199,250
Joined:Jan 2011
Message Posted: Feb 4, 2014 5:56:43 PM

with the new daily prize - a recent winner - January 29th - same day he joined - won $100 gas card and he has only 100 points - pretty good deal - wish I could be that lucky
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kwzh
Champion Author San Jose

Posts:22,324
Points:4,013,405
Joined:Jul 2001
Message Posted: Nov 19, 2013 1:55:03 AM

I'd guess that the actual number of tickets is lower, but it's the right order of magnitude.
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Scrapheap
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:16,297
Points:2,693,035
Joined:Sep 2006
Message Posted: Nov 18, 2013 11:37:50 AM

His point is that if everyone on the 30 day leaderboard used all their tickets on a weekly basis, your odds are at best 7 in 50,000+ at winning.
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kwzh
Champion Author San Jose

Posts:22,324
Points:4,013,405
Joined:Jul 2001
Message Posted: Nov 18, 2013 4:44:11 AM

jim27106, I'm not sure what your figures are supposed to imply, but my guess is that many of the top members on the scoreboard don't buy any tickets at all.
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TxJeans
Champion Author Tampa

Posts:6,132
Points:635,665
Joined:May 2004
Message Posted: Nov 17, 2013 11:36:55 PM

I agree with buckeyecountry - time for a "dead horse" image.
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CelticHeart
Champion Author Detroit

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Message Posted: Nov 17, 2013 10:56:20 PM

jim27106...

Huh?
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jim27106
All-Star Author North Carolina

Posts:897
Points:1,050,325
Joined:Feb 2009
Message Posted: Nov 17, 2013 7:39:15 PM

The top 150 buddies earn 30,000 points a month ~= 7 tickets a week.
The top 10,000 buddies earn 22,500 points a month ~= 5 tickets a week.

If all tickets are entered that is at least 50,000 tickets a week. There must be lots of people with 21,000 points a month who are un-ranked and getting tickets.

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buckeyecountry
Champion Author Ohio

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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2013 5:26:56 PM

We need the "dead horse" image
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scoutmaster
Champion Author Pittsburgh

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Joined:Mar 2003
Message Posted: Nov 9, 2013 8:07:30 AM

This topic was a non-starter in the beginning and still is.
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kwzh
Champion Author San Jose

Posts:22,324
Points:4,013,405
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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2013 4:32:56 AM

And who would you imagine are the "elite", for whom the odds are better?
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Byte_Doctor
Champion Author Akron

Posts:5,303
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Joined:Apr 2011
Message Posted: Nov 8, 2013 7:12:29 PM

Chazzer, are you implying that the drawings are rigged somehow?
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Chazzer
Champion Author Nevada

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Points:3,632,325
Joined:May 2002
Message Posted: Nov 8, 2013 1:12:31 PM

I have no idea! The odds on winning a gas card are slim and none for non elite folks like us.
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Gas_Buddy
Champion Author Maryland

Posts:28,543
Points:3,368,750
Joined:Aug 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2013 2:10:08 PM

buckeyecountry:
It's not much different than if you bought 1 or 220 lottery tickets (except that there's a fixed chance of winning the lottery).

Think of it this way: It's not as if you're asked to guess how many jelly beans are in a jar, it's as if everyone entered their driver's license into the jar and whoever's license was drawn received a new car. Or a $250 gas card. What you didn't know in this case was how many others entered "a bunch of points/tickets" for this drawing, whether there was only one other ticket entered, or 220,000 other tickets entered. You might, might, win a future drawing in which you entered only one ticket and everyone else entered 220 tickets each.

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buckeyecountry
Champion Author Ohio

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Points:1,035,155
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Message Posted: Oct 19, 2013 10:43:55 AM

I blew a bunch of points last week...220 tickets....guess what? :-(
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TxJeans
Champion Author Tampa

Posts:6,132
Points:635,665
Joined:May 2004
Message Posted: Oct 18, 2013 7:22:16 AM

Simple - each ticket entered in a particular drawing has the same chance of winning.

The more tickets entered, the less chance each individual ticket has of winning.

Many with high point totals no longer bother entering the drawing. Others may "bank" tickets to put in a larger number of chances in a particular drawing. New members are often more obsessed with entering tickets.

More winning tickets will be seen from areas with more members, but each of their tickets had the same chance as those in areas with less members - they just had more tickets in the pool BECAUSE they had more members to enter.

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Gas_Buddy
Champion Author Maryland

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Points:3,368,750
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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2013 11:26:20 PM

The odds of winning the gas cards for members with more than 3,000,000 points are no better or worse than the odds of winning the gas cards are for members with 30,000 points or 300,000 points, assuming that they enter the same number of "tickets" for the same drawing. The difference is that a member with 3,000,000 points could (assuming the member hasn't bought any tickets previously) have considerably more chances his/her "ticket" will be drawn simply based on the sheer number of tickets able to be entered in one drawing. It's no different than any other drawing in which random winners are drawn from an unlimited number of entries; the odds are favor the person with the most entries over the person with the least entries, but that's all that is. Odds, not guarantees.
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kwzh
Champion Author San Jose

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Points:4,013,405
Joined:Jul 2001
Message Posted: Oct 17, 2013 11:25:10 PM

Chopin writes,
> The odds of winning the gas cards for members with more than 3,000,000 points are very very slim.

The probability is the number of tickets you buy, divided by the total number of tickets in the pool, which is going to be a smallish number, of course. By including a qualifier, are you suggesting that the buyer's point total is also relevant to the outcome? If so, what makes you think that?
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Chopin
Champion Author Toronto

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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2013 10:30:53 PM

The odds of winning the gas cards for members with more than 3,000,000 points are very very slim.
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pt1KY
Champion Author Lexington

Posts:1,316
Points:289,640
Joined:Jun 2013
Message Posted: Sep 17, 2013 10:19:14 AM

Thank you for your reply.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,688
Points:1,948,650
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 17, 2013 1:12:12 AM

Several years ago in one of these discussion threads one of the Mods reported that there had been about 29000 tickets sold for the most recent drawing. I believe membership is up since then so current drawings probably have more entries but they do not generally disclose the numbers. So for every ticket bought you have roughly one chance in 30000 to win.
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maxstar
Champion Author Chicago

Posts:20,826
Points:1,145,970
Joined:Feb 2011
Message Posted: Sep 16, 2013 8:44:20 PM

Did you read the contest rules?

Contest Rules and Regulations



[Edited by: maxstar at 9/16/2013 8:46:08 PM EST]
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