GasBuddy Blog

Message Forum - Read Message

Category: Talk back to us! > Topics	Add to favorite topics Post New Topic

Author	Topic: Poll Predictions	Post a Reply Back to Topics

jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions. We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results. [Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]

jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:9,999
Points:1,639,950
Joined:Jan 2006

Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

Ignore jrsva Report Abuse

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.

[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]

REPLIES (newest first)Ignore Short Messages

First

Next Last

jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 18, 2013 12:42:57 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Come on SUV, if you're going to guess anyway get in the game. Haven't seen you here for awhile.
SUVFan Champion Author Columbus Posts:14,168 Points:1,660,280 Joined:Oct 2008	Message Posted: Jun 17, 2013 1:15:24 PM Ignore SUVFan Report Abuse I just voted and, as I normally do, guessed at the totals I'd see? I went with 75-15-3-2-1, which scores 50 right now. So I'm thinking 37 is pretty good, more than deserving of a win by default!
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Jun 17, 2013 12:21:13 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse Yes, you can have the title by default.... Congrats.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 16, 2013 11:12:54 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse What’s this? Do I win by default? And I’m not even very close, 37 points off right now.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 16, 2013 12:01:01 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse How often do you use public transportation? • Never----------------------50 • Rarely ---------------------15 • A few times a year---------10 • A few times a month-------10 • Daily / almost daily --------12
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 12, 2013 11:48:01 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Results for 2013-24 with 15800 votes tallied. I post fuel prices on GasBuddy Prognosticator-----jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu • Every day---------(11) - - - -19 - - - - - 23 • Most days ----------7 - - - - -(3) - - - - -(7) • About half ----------1 - - - - - 1 - - - - - -0 • Seldom -------------6 - - - - -(9) - - - - (8) • Never--------------(2) - - - - (8) - - - - (5) Score----------------27 - - - - -40 - - - - 43 Congratulations Jerry, a win from the pole position.
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Jun 10, 2013 12:12:02 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse I abstained. I would have been very wrong if I had attempted a prediction.
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: Jun 9, 2013 12:47:05 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse I post fuel prices on GasBuddy 64 • Every day (8 * 8 characters) 16 • Most days (2 * 8 characters) 09 • About half 06 • Seldom 05 • Never
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 9, 2013 12:01:49 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse I post fuel prices on GasBuddy • Every day----------60 • Most days ---------20 • About half ---------10 • Seldom -------------5 • Never---------------2
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Jun 8, 2013 12:25:23 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse On to next week: I post fuel prices on GasBuddy 30 • Every day 30 • Most days 10 • About half 20 • Seldom 08 • Never
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Jun 8, 2013 12:22:01 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse I thought a lot more people would say that their travel plans were affected by Sandy than apparently did. The storm affected 1/3-1/2 of the population of the US. (I know mine were - it was only a business trip but it was travel). [Edited by: jerry972 at 6/8/2013 12:23:43 PM EST]
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Jun 5, 2013 12:36:28 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse A big spread. Good work, jrsva!
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 5, 2013 12:03:24 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Results for 2013-23 with 15200 votes tallied. How recently has a declared disaster affected your travel? Prognosticator---------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc • Within last 6 months--------(4) - - - - -0 - - - - - 12 - - - - - 0 • 6 months to a year---------22 - - - - -12 - - - - - 11 - - - - -12 • 1 year to 3 years-----------(4) - - - - -(2) - - - - - 6 - - - - - 8 • More than 3 years --------(11) - - - - (8) - - - - -(7) - - - - (6) • Never ---------------------(7) - - - - -(2) - - - - (37) - - - (17) Score -----------------------48 - - - - -24 - - - - - 73 - - - - -43
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: Jun 2, 2013 12:15:22 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse How recently has a declared disaster affected your travel? 05 • Within last 6 months 15 • 6 months to a year 15 • 1 year to 3 years 15 • More than 3 years 45 • Never
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: Jun 2, 2013 12:14:54 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse How recently has a declared disaster affected your travel? 17 • Within last 6 months 14 • 6 months to a year 13 • 1 year to 3 years 14 • More than 3 years 25 • Never (5 * 5 characters)
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: Jun 1, 2013 11:59:55 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse How recently has a declared disaster affected your travel? • Within last 6 months--------5 • 6 months to a year --------15 • 1 year to 3 years------------5 • More than 3 years ---------13 • Never----------------------60
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: Jun 1, 2013 12:54:57 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse How recently has a declared disaster affected your travel? 01 • Within last 6 months 25 • 6 months to a year 03 • 1 year to 3 years 10 • More than 3 years 55 • Never
plastic Champion Author Virginia Posts:46,989 Points:2,864,700 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: May 29, 2013 9:29:21 AM Ignore plastic Report Abuse Thanks, jr. I couldn't find that page. I'll add it to my favorites.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 29, 2013 12:31:53 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Results for 2013-22 with 15000 votes tallied. When entering or checking gas prices, do you use the GasBuddy app / mobile website or the full website? Prognosticator-------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc • Only app/mobile------------20 - - - -(4) - - - - -(3) - - - - -3 • Mostly app/mobile----------15 - - - - 2 - - - - - 11 - - - - - 2 • About 50/50----------------(1) - - - 13 - - - - - -8 - - - - - 3 • Mostly full website----------(2) - - - (5) - - - - -(3) - - - - -0 • Only full website-----------(29) - - - (6) - - - - (33) - - - (16) Score------------------------67 - - - -30 - - - - -58 - - - - 24 Good work Bugc!
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 29, 2013 12:19:10 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse This discussion should be taking place in the Poll Results Discussion topic, but to continue it nonetheless — In Poll 2008-10 we asked, “How long have you had a valid driver's license?” The median fell in the 25-32 years group. Since most folks get their license at age 16 or soon after, that would put the mean GB age at mid-40s.
plastic Champion Author Virginia Posts:46,989 Points:2,864,700 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: May 28, 2013 12:00:50 PM Ignore plastic Report Abuse Well I was surprised, Zim, especially since I'm "old" and my other "old" friends use the app. Maybe people like doc and malcm don't use the app. I don't know. What would you say is the average age of the site members? My guess would be upper 30s but that could be way off.
scoutmaster Champion Author Pittsburgh Posts:82,141 Points:3,280,345 Joined:Mar 2003	Message Posted: May 28, 2013 10:46:14 AM Ignore scoutmaster Report Abuse "Interesting. Still surprised at how many site users don't use the app." I'm betting most of the app users don't use the website.
Zimcity Champion Author Twin Cities Posts:65,789 Points:3,716,605 Joined:Aug 2001	Message Posted: May 28, 2013 9:53:20 AM Ignore Zimcity Report Abuse "Interesting. Still surprised at how many site users don't use the app." I don't think the numbers are all that surprising, considering the GB population is a bit older than many online communities and likely has fewer mobile users overall. That and the bias of app only users not even being aware of the poll. Still, the poll shows a large amount of mainly and only app users which shows that more and more resources will likely need to be dedicated towards app dev.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 27, 2013 11:42:34 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Not as far as I know. That’s why we used the phrase “entering or checking” in the question, assuming that everyone who uses this site either enters or checks prices at some point.
plastic Champion Author Virginia Posts:46,989 Points:2,864,700 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: May 27, 2013 7:48:31 AM Ignore plastic Report Abuse I wonder how many site users don't post prices. Has that poll been done?
plastic Champion Author Virginia Posts:46,989 Points:2,864,700 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: May 27, 2013 12:12:17 AM Ignore plastic Report Abuse Interesting. Still surprised at how many site users don't use the app.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 11:45:01 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Plastic, we discussed that during editing, realized it would distort the results but decided to ask the question anyway. The results apply to a sub-population of GB members, those who vote in the weekly poll. ;o)
plastic Champion Author Virginia Posts:46,989 Points:2,864,700 Joined:May 2004	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 9:15:07 PM Ignore plastic Report Abuse I'm shocked by the results of the poll. It did make me think of something I did not consider. There are a lot of app-only users who will never vote on the poll.
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 5:23:54 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse Z, I did count spaces - I counted from first character to last character including spaces so "About 50/50" is 11 characters. This is the first time I have done this so I may have missed something. J
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 12:27:08 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse I'll guess that the mobile folks are less likely to vote... When entering or checking gas prices, do you use the GasBuddy app / mobile website or the full website? 10 Only (app or mobile website} 15 Mostly app or mobile website 15 About 50/50 20 Mostly full website 30 Only full website [Edited by: bugc at 5/26/2013 12:29:14 AM EST]
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 12:08:13 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse jerry, how are you counting the characters? Are you including spaces? Even so, your counts don't seem consistent.
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: May 26, 2013 12:07:35 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse When entering or checking gas prices, do you use the GasBuddy app / mobile website or the full website? 04 • (Only) app or mobile website 24 • Mostly app or mobile website 20 • About 50/50 (2 * 10 characters) 17 • Mostly full website 30 • Only full website (2 * 15 characters)
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 25, 2013 11:50:16 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse When entering or checking gas prices, do you use the GasBuddy app / mobile website or the full website? • Only app/mobile-------------3 • Mostly app/mobile----------15 • About 50/50----------------25 • Mostly full website----------15 • Only full website------------40
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 25, 2013 11:14:34 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse This is an interesting one to use to test the character-count method — none of those arbitrary factors are involved. We'll see how it turns out.
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 25, 2013 10:36:19 AM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse If you can't beat them, join them - I am going to try z's character count technique. When entering or checking gas prices, do you use the GasBuddy app / mobile website or the full website? 27 • Only app or mobile website 28 • Mostly app or mobile website 11 • About 50/50 18 • Mostly full website 17 • Only full website It adds up to 101% so let see what happens. I should be close to master Z if I have wielded the sword of character count correctly. [Edited by: jerry972 at 5/25/2013 10:43:01 AM EST]
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 25, 2013 10:33:11 AM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse ziyulu, I don't deny that it works. It works really well. I am just curious about what sort of psychology is playing in a poll respondent's head where only the number of characters in the answer is a very good predictor. Any thoughts, anyone? [Edited by: jerry972 at 5/25/2013 10:40:46 AM EST]
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: May 24, 2013 5:13:02 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse I like the character game in that it limits the percentage of a guess to a few numbers. I then play around with the factors and total until I get close to 100.
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 23, 2013 11:39:09 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse bugc, I feel we swap frequently for bringing up the rear... All, I would love to know why z's letter count approach works as well as it does. I can't figure out the link. ziyulu, Congratulations - again. [Edited by: jerry972 at 5/23/2013 11:40:55 PM EST]
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 23, 2013 3:52:15 PM Ignore bugc Report Abuse I've been doing a good job of being the outlier.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 23, 2013 12:06:24 AM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Results for 2013-21 with 19200 votes tallied. How often do you use a cell phone while driving? Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc - - - jerry • Frequently------------1 - - - - - (1) - - - - -4 - - - - - 18 • Sometimes-----------(2) - - - - -(4) - - - - (3) - - - - - 3 • Rarely----------------(9) - - - - - (3) - - - -(13) - - - - (9) • Never -----------------8 - - - - - - 3 - - - - - 8 - - - - - (2) • NA / no phone---------1 - - - - - -(2) - - - - -4 - - - - - -2 Score-------------------21 - - - - - -13 - - - - 32 - - - - - 23 Congratulations Z, you did it again.
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 19, 2013 3:17:07 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse Like bugc, I am late but haven't looked / voted yet. How often do you use a cell phone while driving? 18 • Frequently 25 • Sometimes 30 • Rarely 20 • Never 06 • NA / no phone
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 19, 2013 2:56:11 PM Ignore bugc Report Abuse I haven't looked at the poll so I'll take a guess: How often do you use a cell phone while driving? 15 • Frequently 19 • Sometimes 26 • Rarely 30 • Never 08 • NA / no phone
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: May 19, 2013 12:17:54 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse How often do you use a cell phone while driving? 10 • Frequently 18 • Sometimes (2 * 9 characters) 36 • Rarely (6 * 6 characters) 25 • Never (5 * 5 characters) 02 • (NA) / no phone
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 18, 2013 11:47:35 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse How often do you use a cell phone while driving? • Frequently-----------12 • Sometimes-----------20 • Rarely----------------30 • Never ----------------30 • NA / no phone---------5
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 18, 2013 11:20:50 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Results for 2013-20 with 18700 votes tallied. Were you satisfied with the processing and/or payment of your last auto-insurance claim? Prognosticator---------jrsva - - - bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jerry • Very satisfied ----------(5) - - - - (5) - - - - (4) - - - - -(10) • Met my needs-----------2 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 17 • Unsatisfied-------------(3) - - - - -4 - - - - - 0 - - - - - - - 4 • No claim / IDK-----------6 - - - - -(4) - - - - (7) - - - - - -(9) Score--------------------16 - - - - 15 - - - - -13 - - - - - -40 Congratulations Z, close race this week.
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 16, 2013 11:49:19 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse I was getting ready to post results but it is pretty close now so I think I’ll wait a bit to see if anything changes.
jerry972 Champion Author Denver Posts:5,828 Points:1,399,820 Joined:May 2008	Message Posted: May 12, 2013 11:02:42 PM Ignore jerry972 Report Abuse I know I am late but I haven't looked or voted yet. Were you satisfied with the processing and/or payment of your last auto-insurance claim? 20 Very satisfied 45 Met my needs 15 Unsatisfied 20 No claim / I don’t remember
ziyulu Champion Author Oklahoma City Posts:8,634 Points:1,629,600 Joined:Aug 2007	Message Posted: May 12, 2013 12:12:46 AM Ignore ziyulu Report Abuse Were you satisfied with the processing and/or payment of your last auto-insurance claim? 26 • Very satisfied (2 * 13 characters) 30 • Met my needs (3 * 10 characters) 11 • Unsatisfied 22 • No claim / I don’t remember
bugc Champion Author Boston Posts:15,191 Points:3,030,825 Joined:Mar 2004	Message Posted: May 12, 2013 12:07:25 AM Ignore bugc Report Abuse Were you satisfied with the processing and/or payment of your last auto-insurance claim? 25 Very satisfied 30 Met my needs 15 Unsatisfied 25 No claim / I don’t remember [Edited by: bugc at 5/12/2013 12:09:18 AM EST]
jrsva Champion Author Virginia Posts:9,999 Points:1,639,950 Joined:Jan 2006	Message Posted: May 11, 2013 11:52:18 PM Ignore jrsva Report Abuse Where is everyone this week? It's almost midnight in the east. Were you satisfied with the processing and/or payment of your last auto-insurance claim? • Very satisfied-----------25 • Met my needs----------30 • Unsatisfied--------------8 • No claim / IDK---------35