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jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
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Message Posted: Sep 28, 2014 10:22:53 AM

I'll splitthe difference:

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
04 • Yes
92 • No
02 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,553
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Message Posted: Sep 28, 2014 12:12:26 AM

I think we should have expected this to be a >90% poll and not run it in this form....

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
• Yes----------------4
• No----------------94
• No opinion----------1

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,772
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Message Posted: Sep 27, 2014 4:21:29 PM

Here is my prediction for the coming week.

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
05 • Yes
90 • No
03 • No opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
Points:3,567,950
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Message Posted: Sep 27, 2014 1:59:45 PM

Wow. I hadn't noticed that this is a repeat of poll 2013 #39.

I suppose I can claim to be the winner for this week's prediction. :-)

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,553
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Message Posted: Sep 24, 2014 12:20:40 AM


                      Current      One year ago
1 to 30 days         6%    12%
31 to 60 days       6%     7%
61 to 90 days       6%     5%
91 days or more   65%    31%
No military action   15%    42%
Total votes:     13777    18594 (final)



[Edited by: jrsva at 9/24/2014 12:22:46 AM EST]
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Scrapheap
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:17,245
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Message Posted: Sep 23, 2014 10:11:00 AM

I just changed my vote to 1-30 days. It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. Currently

1 to 30 days 6%
31 to 60 days 6%
61 to 90 days 6%
91 days or more 65%
No military action 16%

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Sep 22, 2014 10:02:23 PM

I don't think this week's question was the question we submitted. It is just as well I did not guess.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 22, 2014 12:05:04 AM

I was away all weekend so I did not have time to do much on this site, just checked in briefly on a borrowed computer shortly after midnight in AT and found that the poll was not posted so I did not try to enter any guesses. Just as well.

Bugc had the right general pattern for the answers, >90 days being an even bigger winner.
Not a relevant poll for GB IMO.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Sep 21, 2014 12:22:37 AM

This is the poll that has been posted with my wild guess.

If military action is taken against Syria, in what time frame do you believe this action will be over?
00- 1 to 30 days
03- 31 to 60 days
10- 61 to 90 days
45- 91 days or more
40- No military action
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Sep 20, 2014 11:58:19 PM

Well, it is midnight on the East Coast and no one has predicted yet. I guess this week is a "no-show"
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 17, 2014 12:23:45 AM

Results for 2014-38 with 14000 votes tallied.
Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?

Prognosticator------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------(20) - - - - (5) - - - - (1)
• No------------------11 - - - - -12 - - - - - 2
• No opinion -----------9 - - - - -(7) - - - - -0
Score-----------------40 - - - - -24 - - - - - 3

Spectacular, Bugc!
The results shifted slightly away from you but it will never change enough to matter.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 14, 2014 11:45:03 PM


I think we can declare Bugc the winner, even tough it is still Sunday, off by only one point at this time. I will wait a day or two before posting the results.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Sep 14, 2014 1:00:23 AM

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
44 • Yes
46 • No
09 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 13, 2014 11:35:03 PM

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
• Yes-----------------40
• No -----------------56
• No opinion------------2
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Sep 13, 2014 10:32:09 AM

I notice that today's GB blog post is relevant to next week's question.
Here are my predictions:

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
25 • Yes
55 • No
18 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 8, 2014 11:18:17 PM

Results for 2014-37 with 12500 votes tallied.
Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes-----------------9 - - - - - -1 - - - - - 14 - - - - - 16
• No----------------(14) - - - - (5) - - - - (13) - - - - (15)
• IDK -----------------4 - - - - - 5 - - - - - (2) - - - - - (1)
Score----------------27 - - - - -11 - - - - - 29 - - - - - 32

Congrats Z, another wide margin.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:51:59 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
42 • Yes
54 • No
03 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:33:17 PM


The link for last week’s results is wrong; the corrected link is 2014-36. Sorry.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:28:52 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
• Yes----------------40
• No-----------------56
• IDK -----------------2
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,987
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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:25:04 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:18:04 PM

Jerry, I made a typo in the scoring table, entering 5 instead of 35 for the “No” answer.
Here’s how I arrived at your score, corrected —

Prognosticator--------------------------actual - - - jerry - - - score
• Yes------------------------------------29 - - - - -20 - - - - -(9)
• No-------------------------------------30 - - - - -65 - - - - -35
• I never use ethanol gasoline-------------20 - - - - - 2 - - - - (18)
• I don’t use power equipment ------------19 - - - - -10 - - - - -(9)
Score-------------------------------------- - - - - - - - - - - - -71

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 7:57:35 PM

Here are my predictions for the coming week:

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
35 • Yes
55 • No
08 • No opinion

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 7:55:54 PM

I count my score as 41 = (9) + 5 + (18) + 9 unless there was a typo somewhere. Z still cleaned up.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Sep 3, 2014 12:21:27 AM

Results for 2014-35 with 13900 votes tallied.
Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?

Prognosticator------------------------bugc - - - jrsva - - - jerry - - - ziyulu
• Yes-----------------------------------(20) - - - - (4) - - - - (9) - - - - (2)
• No-------------------------------------36 - - - - -15 - - - - - 5 - - - - - 2
• I never use ethanol gasoline------------(18) - - - -(10) - - - -(18) - - - -4
• I don’t use power equipment -------------2 - - - - -(1) - - - - -(9) - - -(10)
Score------------------------------------76 - - - - - 30 - - - - 71 - - - - 18

Congratulations Z, pretty clear winner this week.

Most of us were surprised at how many do not use ethanol-tainted gasoline. When we asked about that last year, Poll 2013-14, only 11% said they never use ethanol, though another 12% said they would not use it when they can get E0. Apparently Z took that latter group into account.

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,987
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Message Posted: Aug 30, 2014 11:21:18 PM

Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
32 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
24 • I never use ethanol gasoline
09 • (I don’t use) power equipment
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 30, 2014 7:46:38 PM

Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?
20 • Yes
65 • No
02 • I never use ethanol gasoline
10 • I don’t use power equipment
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,553
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Message Posted: Aug 24, 2014 1:02:34 AM


Well, they did not run our suggestion, instead repeating one from exactly one year ago, Poll 2013-35, “Do you have natural gas piped into your home?” Unsurprisingly, the results are coming in very much the same as a year ago.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 24, 2014 12:51:43 AM

Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?
• Yes------------------------------------25
• No-------------------------------------45
• I never use ethanol gasoline-------------10
• I don’t use power equipment ------------18

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
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Message Posted: Aug 24, 2014 12:07:35 AM

Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?
09 • Yes
66 • No
02 • I never use ethanol gasoline
21 • I don’t use power equipment
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 23, 2014 4:23:28 PM

Nice job, jrsva, on this week's poll.

Here is my prediction for the coming week:

Have you noticed problems with power equipment (not vehicles) when using ethanol gasoline (E10)?
19 • Yes
72 • No
04 • I never use ethanol gasoline
03 • I don’t use power equipment
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,553
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Message Posted: Aug 21, 2014 12:32:55 AM

Results for 2014-34 with 16100 votes tallied.
Are you concerned about security when paying at the pump with a credit or debit card?

Prognosticator---------jerry - - - bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Yes, credit card--------(8) - - - - 12 - - - - (3) - - - - - 7
• Yes, debit card----------0 - - - - - 5 - - - - -0 - - - - - -9
• Yes, with either ---------0 - - - -(25) - - - - 0 - - - - - (2)
• No----------------------7 - - - - - 7 - - - - (3) - - - - -27
• Other/NA --------------(1) - - - - -0- - - - - 5 - - - - - - 3
Score -------------------16 - - - - 49 - - - - 11 - - - - - 48

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2014 6:39:42 AM

Are you concerned about security when paying at the pump with a credit or debit card?
20 • Yes, with my credit card
19 • Yes, with my debit card
28 • Yes, with either (2 * 14 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
05 • (Other), N/A
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 17, 2014 12:10:31 AM

Are you concerned about security when paying at the pump with a credit or debit card?
• Yes, credit card --------10
• Yes, debit card---------10
• Yes, with either--------30
• No--------------------40
• Other/NA---------------7

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2014 10:28:02 PM

A real hard one this week. I'll open with:

Are you concerned about security when paying at the pump with a credit or debit card?
25 • Yes, with my credit card
15 • Yes, with my debit card
05 • Yes, with either
50 • No
02 • Other, N/A
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2014 7:14:00 PM

Congratulations, all, on a close race.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2014 12:14:06 AM

Wow, that's close!

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 16, 2014 12:03:30 AM

Results for 2014-33 with 17700 votes tallied.
Do you think investing in oil and gas companies is worthwhile in the current market?

Prognosticator----ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes------------------9 - - - - - (1) - - - - (6)
• No------------------(5)- - - - -(6) - - - - -0
• IDK-----------------(2) - - - - -8 - - - - - -8
Score-----------------16 - - - - -15 - - - - -14

Congratulations Bugc. The numbers haven’t changed for several days so I decided to go ahead and post results even though it remains very close.

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 15, 2014 6:59:52 PM

Even though it is Friday, let me get my guess in for next week:

Are you concerned about security when paying at the pump with a credit or debit card?
05 • Yes, with my credit card
10 • Yes, with my debit card
30 • Yes, with either
50 • No
01 • Other, N/A
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Aug 13, 2014 12:19:27 AM

That is very close.....
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 12, 2014 12:15:26 AM


This thing is running too close to call at 12k votes, currently 16 - 15 - 14.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
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Message Posted: Aug 10, 2014 12:35:17 AM

Do you think investing in oil and gas companies is worthwhile in the current market?
45 • Yes
25 • No
30 • I don't know
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 9, 2014 11:58:40 PM

Oh boy, wild guess time on this one —
Do you think investing in oil and gas companies is worthwhile in the current market?
• Yes---------------50
• No----------------19
• IDK---------------30

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,987
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Message Posted: Aug 9, 2014 11:37:14 PM

Do you think investing in oil and gas companies is worthwhile in the current market?
60 • Yes
20 • No
20 • I don't know
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,553
Points:2,185,950
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Aug 5, 2014 11:54:12 PM

Results for 2014-32 with 13800 votes tallied.
When do you think driverless cars will become commercially viable?

Prognosticator------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Within 5 years------------(4) - - - - -6 - - - - - -2 - - - - - (3)
• Within 10 years-----------(5) - - - - (1) - - - - -(2) - - - - (5)
• Within 20 years-----------16 - - - - - 5 - - - - - -6 - - - - - 6
• Within 50 years------------1 - - - - -(1) - - - - -(6) - - - - (6)
• Not within 50 years-------(6) - - - - (7) - - - - (11) - - - -(4)
Score----------------------32 - - - - -20 - - - - -27 - - - - -24

Congratulations Z. Pretty close game this week.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Aug 3, 2014 9:06:13 AM

Yikes, it's Sunday. I haven't looked.

When do you think driverless cars will become commercially viable?
03 • Within 5 years
22 • Within 10 years
40 • Within 20 years
20 • Within 50 years
12 • Not within 50 years

[Edited by: bugc at 8/3/2014 9:06:47 AM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Aug 2, 2014 11:51:22 PM

When do you think driverless cars will become commercially viable?
• Within 5 years-------------8
• Within 10 years-----------25
• Within 20 years-----------40
• Within 50 years-----------20
• Not within 50 years--------5

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,987
Points:2,177,525
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Aug 2, 2014 11:34:39 PM

When do you think driverless cars will become commercially viable?
12 • Within 5 years
26 • Within 10 years (2 * 13 characters)
39 • Within 20 years (3 * 13 characters)
13 • Within 50 years
09 • (Not within) 50 years
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Aug 2, 2014 6:03:37 PM

Here goes first out of the gate again:

When do you think driverless cars will become commercially viable?
02 • Within 5 years
22 • Within 10 years
50 • Within 20 years
15 • Within 50 years
10 • Not within 50 years
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,772
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Message Posted: Aug 2, 2014 5:50:32 PM

Agreed. I usually put in predictions late Saturday afternoon and am usually first out of the gate.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,647
Points:3,567,950
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Message Posted: Jul 31, 2014 3:43:03 PM

Thanks. My guess was based upon the previous guesses. There should be a bonus score for early submissions.


[Edited by: bugc at 7/31/2014 3:44:07 PM EST]
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