Not Logged In Log In   Sign Up   Points Leaders
Follow Us    7:22 AM

Message Forum - Read Message

Category: Talk back to us! > Topics Add to favorite topics   Post new topicPost New Topic
Author Topic: Poll Predictions Back to Topics
jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 5:09:07 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
50 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
08 • An independent vehicle history report
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 2:49:38 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?

22 • My inspection/test drive
60 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice (2 * 30 characters)
00 • My friend's inspection
13 • An independent vehicle (history report)
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,157
Points:1,938,950
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Jan 24, 2015 11:10:35 PM

It is already past midnight on the East Coast but here are my predictions:

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
30 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
30 • An independent vehicle history report
02 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 20, 2015 12:30:57 AM

No win by default this week, but it has happened.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 19, 2015 4:20:05 PM


I’ll calculate results later in the week when I’m feeling better, if you like, or one of you guys could go ahead and do it. OR, we know who won without running any numbers.   ;o)
Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 8:28:48 AM

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
72 • Always (12 * 6 characters)
18 • Sometimes (2 * 9 characters)
05 • Never
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 3:27:35 AM

I was going to pass, but since nobody seems to be playing, I'll make a ridiculous prediction:

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
33 Always
33 Sometimes
33 Never

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 14, 2015 12:36:40 AM

Results for 2015-03 with 18800 votes tallied.
The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:

Prognosticator--------ziyulu - - - bugc - - - jrsva
• Intentional-------------0 - - - - - (6) - - - - (6)
• Unintentional ---------(2) - - - - -4 - - - - - (6)
• I never did-------------0 - - - - - 4 - - - - - -9
• I don’t remember-------3 - - - - (1) - - - - - -2
Score--------------------5 - - - - 15 - - - - - 23

Good work Z, that’s pretty amazing.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:59:12 PM

This one is pure guesswork for me.

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
• Intentional-------------5
• Unintentional ---------35
• I never did------------45
• I don’t remember -----13

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:50:45 PM

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
05 • Intentional
45 • Unintentional
40 • I never did
10 • I don’t remember
Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:35:40 PM

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
11 • Intentional
39 • Unintentional (3 * 13 characters)
36 • I never did (4 * 9 characters)
14 • I don’t remember
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 5, 2015 11:20:44 PM


Thanks for self scoring; I was not going to bother doing the arithmetic.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 5, 2015 3:15:28 AM

With no other guesses, I probably set a new, all time record:

Do you think the national average price for gasoline will go under $2 US per gallon (85¢ CA per liter) in 2015, and if so, when?

20 -In the first quarter of 2015---- 38
10 -In the second quarter of 2015--- 6
05 -In the third quarter of 2015---- (3)
05 -In the fourth quarter of 2015--- (4)
55 -Not in 2015---------------------------- (34)

Score ---------------------------------------- 85

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 4, 2015 6:39:39 PM


I did not guess this week because the poll came out early and I saw the results after ~2500 votes had posted. It is now at 12700 votes and the tally is 58 / 16 / 2 / 1 / 21.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 3, 2015 12:35:47 AM

Do you think the national average price for gasoline will go under $2 US per gallon (85¢ CA per liter) in 2015, and if so, when?

20 -In the first quarter of 2015
10 -In the second quarter of 2015
05 -In the third quarter of 2015
05 -In the fourth quarter of 2015
55 -Not in 2015
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 1, 2015 11:58:18 AM

Results for 2014-53 with 17500 votes tallied.
What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?

Prognosticator---------------bugc - - - jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Vehicle taxes and fees---------7 - - - - 1 - - - - - 3 - - - - - 3
• Fuel taxes---------------------1 - - -(10) - - - (11) - - - - (6)
• Other tax revenue-------------4 - - - - 3 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 3
• Tolls and parking fees----------4 - - - 13 - - - - - 8 - - - - -(1)
• Higher fares-----------------(19) - - - -5 - - - --10 - - - - (2)
• Other-------------------------3 - - - (8) - - - -(11) - - - - 2
Score--------------------------38 - - - 40 - - - - -45 - - - - 17

Congratulations Z, well done.

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 28, 2014 12:37:23 AM

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
12 • (Vehicle taxes) and fees
09 • Fuel taxes
15 • Other tax revenue
11 • Tolls and (parking fees)
33 • Higher fares (3 * 11 characters)
15 • Other (3 * 5 characters)
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 11:44:31 PM

I think Jerry is on the right track; I’ll just fiddle with his numbers a little.

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
• Vehicle taxes and fees--------12
• Fuel taxes---------------------4
• Other tax revenue-------------14
• Tolls and parking fees---------20
• Higher fares-------------------45
• Other--------------------------2

Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,157
Points:1,938,950
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 6:29:29 PM

I recall a poll like this a few years back but I don't recall the answers.

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
10 • Vehicle taxes and fees
05 • Fuel taxes
15 • Other tax revenue
25 • Tolls and parking fees
40 • Higher fares
05 • Other
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 12:16:49 AM

Next week's poll is a real mystery for me. I'll try an equal weighting:

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
16 • Vehicle taxes and fees
16 • Fuel taxes
16 • Other tax revenue
16 • Tolls and parking fees
16 • Higher fares
16 • Other
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 24, 2014 12:18:19 AM

Results for 2014-52 with 18400 votes tallied.
How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?

Prognosticator------------bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• More than $50-------------6 - - - - - 3 - - - - - (4)
• $40 to 50----------------(11) - - - (17) - - - - (21)
• $30 to 40-----------------11 - - - - - 0 - - - - - 11
• Less than $30--------------0 - - - - - 1 - - - - - 10
• No opinion-----------------7 - - - - 22 - - - - - - 6
Score----------------------35 - - - -43 - - - - - -52

The guesses got worse as time went by. Congrats Bugc for being the least bad.   ;o)

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 21, 2014 12:03:00 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
• More than $50------------15
• $40 to 50-----------------20
• $30 to 40-----------------25
• Less than $30-------------20
• No opinion----------------18

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 11:18:59 PM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
22 • More than $50 (2 * 11 characters)
24 • $40 to $50 (3 * 8 characters)
16 • $30 to $40 (2 * 8 characters)
11 • Less than $30
27 • No opinion (3 * 9 characters)
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 5:01:38 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
25 • More than $50
30 • $40 to $50
25 • $30 to $40
10 • Less than $30
05 • No opinion


[Edited by: bugc at 12/20/2014 5:03:10 AM EST]
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 19, 2014 12:13:49 AM

We were close to each other but all were far off the mark....

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 18, 2014 11:24:35 PM

Results for 2014-51 with 26300 votes tallied.
At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?

Prognosticator-----ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• 70 or below---------4 - - - - - (2) - - - - (7)
• 75----------------(11) - - - - (7) - - - - (2)
• 80------------------1 - - - - -10 - - - - - 5
• 85 or above---------9 - - - - - -6 - - - - 11
• Never--------------(9) - - - - (6) - - - -(4)
Score----------------34 - - - - -31 - - - - 29

Congrats Bugc; it is still close but it does not appear that any likely change could shift the result.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 14, 2014 2:56:39 AM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
25 > 70 or below
25 > 75
20 > 80
20 > 85 or above
10 > Never
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 14, 2014 12:01:23 AM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
• 70 or below--------30
• 75-----------------20
• 80-----------------25
• 85 or above--------15
• Never---------------8

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 13, 2014 11:24:09 PM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
36 • 70 or below (4 * 9 characters)
16 • 75 (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
16 • 80 (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
18 • 85 or above (2 * 9 characters)
05 • Never
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 9, 2014 11:27:54 PM

Results for 2014-50 with 15700 votes tallied.
Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes------------------(1) - - - - (6)
• No--------------------3 - - - - - 7
• Not sure -------------(2) - - - - -0
Score-------------------6 - - - - 13

Only two of us ventured a guess this week. We both thought that “no” would predominate compared to last year but we both overstated the change a bit.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 7, 2014 4:06:42 AM

Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?
• Yes-------------10
• No--------------84
• Not sure---------5
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 7, 2014 12:06:10 AM

Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?
• Yes-------------15
• No--------------80
• Not sure---------3
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,157
Points:1,938,950
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Dec 6, 2014 11:34:05 PM

It is after midnight on the East Coast and we still don't know which poll is going to post so I am passing on predictions this week.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 3, 2014 11:31:34 AM

Results for 2014-49 with 17600 votes counted.
Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?

Prognosticator-------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes-------------------------(15) - - - - -2 - - - - -(5) - - - - (15)
• No---------------------------17 - - - - - 1 - - - - - -7 - - - - - 15
• I don't change brands---------(6) - - - - (5) - - - - -(2) - - - - -(1)
• I don't use gasoline------------5 - - - - - (1) - - - - - 0 - - - - - -3
Score--------------------------43 - - - - - 9 - - - - - 14 - - - - - 34

Congratulations Z, single-digits is good for this poll.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 1, 2014 12:46:47 AM

Results for 2014-48 with a final tally of 18962 votes.
Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:

Prognosticator-------bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• A lot more ------------0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (1)
• A little more----------(1) - - - - -0 - - - - - -0
• About same----------(2) - - - - (2) - - - - -12
• Less------------------5 - - - - - -4 - - - - - -2
• Alternate means-------0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - 2
• I’m not traveling -----(1) - - - - (2) - - - - (9)
Score-------------------9 - - - - - 8 - - - - -26

What a squeaker! Bug voted for no change and I voted for a small change; it changed more than either of us thought, I supposed due to lower prices.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 30, 2014 4:55:53 AM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
10 • Yes
78 • No
08 • I don't change brands
04 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 11:57:17 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
• Yes--------------------------20
• No---------------------------70
• I don't change brands---------7
• I don't use gasoline -----------1

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 11:28:05 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
04 • I (don't) change brands
00 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,157
Points:1,938,950
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 5:08:34 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
10 • Yes
80 • No
03 • I don't change brands
06 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 27, 2014 11:29:36 PM


Still too close to call again this week, which is no surprise since my guess and Bug’s differed by only 3 points. I will post results on Sunday.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 25, 2014 4:57:39 AM

Close! Congratulations jrsva!

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 23, 2014 11:28:19 PM

Results for 2014-47 with a final total of 18736 votes.
When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:

Prognosticator---------------ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Regular only-----------------(27) - - - -(18) - - - (20)
• Diesel only --------------------4 - - - - - -1 - - - - - 0
• All grades on the signs--------25 - - - - -28 - - - - 26
• All grades sold-----------------0 - - - - -(1) - - - - -2
• Other-------------------------4 - - - - -(1) - - - - - 1
• I don’t post prices-----------(10) - - - - (8) - - - (10)
Score-------------------------70 - - - - -57 - - - - -59

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 11:36:42 PM

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
A (lot) more than last year 3%
A (little) more than last year 6%
About the same as last year 66% (3 * 22 characters)
Less than last year 16%
Going by alternate means (plane, train, (etc).) 3%
I’m not traveling at all this year/(not my turn) 9%
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 11:10:06 PM

I was going to guess the same as last year but Bug preempted that choice so I will guess slightly more travel due to lower gas prices.

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
• A lot more-------------4
• A little more-----------6
• About same----------52
• Less-----------------18
• Alternate means-------1
• I’m not traveling -----16

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 9:43:29 PM

OK, I'll guess the same as last year:

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
A lot more than last year 4%
A little more than last year 5%
About the same as last year 52%
Less than last year 19%
Going by alternate means (plane, train, etc.) 1%
I’m not traveling at all this year/not my turn 17%
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 19, 2014 11:41:52 PM


Boy, none of us was any good this week. We all fell for the idea that most folks posted what they could see on the signs. I was going to post results but the numbers are changing just enough that results may not be definitive yet.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,275
Points:3,731,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 16, 2014 8:28:22 AM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
18 -Regular only
02 -Diesel only
58 -All grades on the signs
15 -All grades sold
02 -Other
00 -I don’t post prices
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:55:35 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
• Regular only------------------20
• Diesel only --------------------3
• All grades on the signs--------60
• All grades sold----------------12
• Other--------------------------0
• I don’t post prices-------------2

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,589
Points:2,338,195
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:05:41 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
11 • Regular only
06 • (Diesel) only
57 • All grades on the signs (3 * 19 characters)
13 • All grades sold
05 • Other
00 • I don’t post prices
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,170
Points:2,348,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 13, 2014 12:10:04 AM

Results for 2014-46 with 15500 votes tallied.
The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:

Prognosticator------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - suvfan
• Save/invest/retire---------(5) - - - - 14 - - - - - 5 - - - - - (14)
• Entertainment/fun --------17 - - - - -10 - - - - -5 - - - - - - 27
• Debt reduction-------------1 - - - - (11) - - - - (9) - - - - - (4)
• Shopping ------------------5 - - - - - -3- - - - -(1) - - - - - -5
• More driving ---------------6 - - - - - -7 - - - - -11 - - - - - 16
• Other / nothing ----------(15) - - - -(21) - - - -(10) - - - - (30)
Score-----------------------49 - - - - - 66 - - - - -41 - - - - - 96

Wow, none of us were really very good this week. Tough question IMO.

Profile Pic
scoutmaster
Champion Author Pittsburgh

Posts:100,407
Points:3,987,465
Joined:Mar 2003
Message Posted: Nov 10, 2014 6:35:22 AM

What is sad is the numbers choosing Other / nothing.
Post a reply Back to Topics