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jrsva
Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 25, 2015 1:04:45 AM

Results for 2015-12 with a final tally of 18407 votes.
How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?

Prognosticator--------------------------ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - jerry - - - bugc
• Adequate for the location-----------------4 - - - - - 3 - - - - - 6 - - - - - 2
• Fair, needs improvement -----------------(1) - - - -(2) - - - - (7) - - - - (3)
• Poor, replace with over/underpass--------(2) - - - - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - - - 0
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------3 - - - - -0 - - - - -(1) - - - - (1)
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------2 - - - - (3) - - - - -3 - - - - - 3
Score--------------------------------------12 - - - - 9 - - - - - 18 - - - - -9

Yes indeed, it was too close to call — ending in a tie.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 24, 2015 12:11:21 AM

For last week's poll, jrsva wrote: "I was going to post results but it is too close to call."

Yes, it is a dead heat. My back of an envelope calculations show that jrsva and I are tied. The scores are:

jrsva- 9
bugc- 9
ziyulu- 12
jerry- 18

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 22, 2015 12:51:11 AM


In which months do you think gas prices will bottom out in 2015?
50 - Jan-Mar
13 - Apr-Jun
10 - Jul-Sep
25 - Oct-Dec
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 21, 2015 6:33:22 PM

Predications for the coming week:

In which months do you think gas prices will bottom out in 2015?
60 - Jan-Mar
10 - Apr-Jun
10 - Jul-Sep
20 - Oct-Dec
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 19, 2015 12:34:37 AM


I was going to post results but it is too close to call.
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 15, 2015 8:43:36 PM

I haven't looked. I'll guess:

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
64 • Adequate for the location
14 • Fair, needs improvement
06 • Poor, replace with over/underpass
00 • Poor, close road to eliminate
15 • I don't encounter RR crossings
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 15, 2015 1:01:14 AM


How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
• Adequate for the location-----------------68
• Fair, needs improvement-----------------10
• Poor, replace with over/underpass---------7
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------0
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------15
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 14, 2015 11:46:54 PM

Pretty similar to yours, Z, but I did have it all worked out before seeing yours.

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
• Adequate for the location-----------------65
• Fair, needs improvement-----------------15
• Poor, replace with over/underpass---------7
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------1
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------9

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 14, 2015 11:28:57 PM

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
66 • Adequate for the location (3 * 22 characters)
16 • Fair, (needs improvement)
04 • (Poor), replace with over/underpass
04 • (Poor), close road to eliminate
14 • I (don't encounter) RR crossings
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 13, 2015 12:27:35 AM

Results for 2015-11 with 17600 votes tallied.
How do you feel about seatbelt laws in your area?

Prognosticator--------------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Make them more strict-----------(12) - - - - 1 - - - - - - 3 - - - - -(7)
• Keep them unchanged------------24 - - - (10) - - - - - -9- - - - - -3
• Make them less strict--------------0 - - - - -5 - - - - - -(3) - - - - -3
• Abolish them completely----------(6) - - - -(4) - - - - - (7) - - - - (2)
• No opinion-----------------------(3) - - - - (1) - - - - - (1) - - - - -2
Score-----------------------------45 - - - - -21 - - - - - -23 - - - - 17

Congratulations Bugc.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 9, 2015 1:02:42 AM

I can claim to be the winner (or loser) for last week's 2015#10 poll. The score was 48. Not good, but only one contestant......
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 5:02:57 AM

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
10 * Make them more strict
64 * Keep them unchanged
08 * Make them less strict
09 * Abolish them completely
05 * No Opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 12:07:12 AM

How do you feel about seatbelt laws in your area?
• Make them more strict------------20
• Keep them unchanged------------70
• Make them less strict---------------2
• Abolish them completely -----------4
• No opinion--------------------------2

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 12:03:28 AM

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
18 * Make them more strict
51 * Keep them unchanged (3 * 17 characters)
10 * Make them (less strict)
07 * (Abolish) them completely
02 * (No) Opinion
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 7, 2015 6:43:36 PM

Predictions for the coming week:

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
05 * Make them more strict
85 * Keep them unchanged
05 * Make them less strict
05 * Abolish them completely
00 * No Opinion
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 4, 2015 12:06:27 AM

Welcome, Mininana, Yes, it is fun.

The upcoming poll question is usually posted at this forum on Friday afternoon, or just watch for a posting here.

Mininana
Champion Author New York

Posts:1,081
Points:110,765
Joined:Dec 2014
Message Posted: Mar 3, 2015 4:24:00 PM

this sounds like fun, will try to get the hang of it and join in...
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 1, 2015 12:05:30 AM

Do you feel it's beneficial to bundle insurance policies with one company?
07 *Yes, for convenience
07 *Yes, for better pricing
80 *Yes, both of the above
02 *No
03 *No opinion / NA
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 26, 2015 11:36:59 AM

Results for 2015-09 with 17200 votes tallied.
Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?

Prognosticator---------bugc - - - jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• Significantly-----------(11) - - - -(12) - - - - (3) - - - - -(1)
• Minimally---------------(5)- - - - -15 - - - - -13 - - - - - -5
• No---------------------14 - - - - - -1 - - - - (13) - - - - -(4)
• No opinion---------------2 - - - - - (3) - - - - (1) - - - - - 0
Score--------------------32 - - - - - 31 - - - - -30 - - - - -10

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2015 12:12:06 AM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
• Significantly------------15
• Minimally---------------55
• No---------------------25
• No opinion---------------3
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 11:09:28 PM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
13 • Significantly
63 • Minimally (7 * 9 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
02 • (No) opinion
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 12:18:16 PM

Thank you for going first this week, bugc. Nice job on last week's poll.

Here is my prediction

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
04 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
00 • No opinion

[Edited by: jerry972 at 2/21/2015 12:20:32 PM EST]
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:29:47 PM

First guess:


Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
45 • Minimally
43 • No
05 • No opinion

How will "minimally" be interpreted by the voters?
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:23:34 PM

Wow, a sudden swing toward the yes:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 16%
No 83%
Total votes: 18270

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 12:58:48 AM

The poll has been holding at 14/85 for a long time, but at this moment it is:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 15%
No 84%
Total votes: 17551

Easy score calculation this week!
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 17, 2015 1:11:21 AM

I guessed right on the shifting for a while, but the vote has now been tracking last year's poll.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 9:25:05 PM

Actually, I didn't peek this time. I checked the 2014#8 poll result:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 14%
No 85%
Total votes: 18567

and then figured I'd move 1% of the "yes" vote to "no" thinking the demographics may have possibly shifted in that direction.
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 2:53:53 PM

Hey bugc, no fair peeking! (The numbers in your prediction match exactly the results at the time I write this)
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 12:19:10 AM

They repeated last year's question:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
13 * Yes
86 * No
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 14, 2015 8:17:58 PM

Once again - first out of the gate:

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
01 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 12, 2015 12:09:46 AM

Results for 2015-07 with 18100 votes tallied.
Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?

Prognosticator------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc - - - ziyulu
• Yes---------------18 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (3) - - - - 2
• No---------------(13) - - - - 2 - - - - - -(3) - - - (4)
• IDK ---------------(4) - - - -(3) - - - - - -4 - - - - -3
Score---------------35 - - - - - 5 - - - - - -10 - - - - 9

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 11, 2015 2:48:44 PM

It would always be a multiply of the number of key words. So, sometimes I manipulate the numbers and find a factor that makes everything add up close to 100%.
a5
Champion Author Ottawa

Posts:4,914
Points:2,754,340
Joined:Sep 2005
Message Posted: Feb 9, 2015 8:41:45 PM

"I would use the number of characters in the key words to help me come up with the numbers."

and where do you get your multiplying factor from?

i.e. why is YES 3^3 and No 2^6?
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 7:48:47 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 12:32:56 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
22 • Yes
65 • No
10 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 11:55:56 PM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
• Yes---------------25
• No----------------70
• IDK ----------------3
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 5:19:52 PM

I was surprised also.

Here are my predictions for next week:

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
43 • Yes
55 • No
02 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 4, 2015 12:26:29 AM

Results for 2015-06 with 17600 votes tallied.
Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?

Prognosticator--------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------------------(9) - - - - (9) - - - -(11)
• No---------------------------(16) - - - (11) - - - - (19)
• I don't change grades---------23 - - - - 18 - - - - - 26
• I don't use gasoline-------------4 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 4
Score---------------------------52 - - - - -40 - - - - - 60

Wow, we were all bad this week. I’m really surprised at how many folks change grades.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:16:52 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
08 • Yes
12 • No
73 • I don't change grades
05 • I don't use gasoline
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:06:59 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
• Yes---------------------------10
• No----------------------------20
• I don't change grades-----------65
• I don't use gasoline--------------3
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Jan 31, 2015 8:23:48 PM

Here are my predictions for the coming week.

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
10 • Yes
15 • No
70 • I don't change grades
05 • I don't use gasoline
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 31, 2015 11:58:30 AM

Results for 2015-05 with 20000 votes tallied.
Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?

Prognosticator--------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - bugc
• My inspection---------------10 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 10
• My mechanic---------------(35) - - - -(5) - - - - (15)
• My friend---------------------9 - - - - (1) - - - - - -9
• Vehicle history--------------20 - - - - - 3 - - - - - (2)
• Seller's report----------------2 - - - - - 0 - - - - - -0
• Prior owner------------------(1) - - - - (1) - - - - -(1)
Score-------------------------77 - - - - -12 - - - - - 37

Runaway win; congratulations Z.

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 27, 2015 9:55:59 AM

Since we are to guess numbers, I would use the number of characters in the key words to help me come up with the numbers.
a5
Champion Author Ottawa

Posts:4,914
Points:2,754,340
Joined:Sep 2005
Message Posted: Jan 27, 2015 9:14:33 AM

Z, how does your character counting theory work? I remember you explained it once before but I can't remember. Is there ANY connection between number of characters people's tendency to choose?
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 5:09:07 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
50 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
08 • An independent vehicle history report
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 2:49:38 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?

22 • My inspection/test drive
60 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice (2 * 30 characters)
00 • My friend's inspection
13 • An independent vehicle (history report)
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,359
Points:2,002,395
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Jan 24, 2015 11:10:35 PM

It is already past midnight on the East Coast but here are my predictions:

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
30 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
30 • An independent vehicle history report
02 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 20, 2015 12:30:57 AM

No win by default this week, but it has happened.
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,440
Points:2,420,050
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 19, 2015 4:20:05 PM


I’ll calculate results later in the week when I’m feeling better, if you like, or one of you guys could go ahead and do it. OR, we know who won without running any numbers.   ;o)
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,892
Points:2,430,075
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 8:28:48 AM

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
72 • Always (12 * 6 characters)
18 • Sometimes (2 * 9 characters)
05 • Never
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,582
Points:3,804,785
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 3:27:35 AM

I was going to pass, but since nobody seems to be playing, I'll make a ridiculous prediction:

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
33 Always
33 Sometimes
33 Never

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