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jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Points:2,260,575
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Message Posted: Nov 19, 2014 11:41:52 PM


Boy, none of us was any good this week. We all fell for the idea that most folks posted what they could see on the signs. I was going to post results but the numbers are changing just enough that results may not be definitive yet.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,930
Points:3,642,900
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Message Posted: Nov 16, 2014 8:28:22 AM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
18 -Regular only
02 -Diesel only
58 -All grades on the signs
15 -All grades sold
02 -Other
00 -I don’t post prices
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
Points:2,260,575
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:55:35 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
• Regular only------------------20
• Diesel only --------------------3
• All grades on the signs--------60
• All grades sold----------------12
• Other--------------------------0
• I don’t post prices-------------2

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,261
Points:2,250,150
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:05:41 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
11 • Regular only
06 • (Diesel) only
57 • All grades on the signs (3 * 19 characters)
13 • All grades sold
05 • Other
00 • I don’t post prices
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Nov 13, 2014 12:10:04 AM

Results for 2014-46 with 15500 votes tallied.
The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:

Prognosticator------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - suvfan
• Save/invest/retire---------(5) - - - - 14 - - - - - 5 - - - - - (14)
• Entertainment/fun --------17 - - - - -10 - - - - -5 - - - - - - 27
• Debt reduction-------------1 - - - - (11) - - - - (9) - - - - - (4)
• Shopping ------------------5 - - - - - -3- - - - -(1) - - - - - -5
• More driving ---------------6 - - - - - -7 - - - - -11 - - - - - 16
• Other / nothing ----------(15) - - - -(21) - - - -(10) - - - - (30)
Score-----------------------49 - - - - - 66 - - - - -41 - - - - - 96

Wow, none of us were really very good this week. Tough question IMO.

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scoutmaster
Champion Author Pittsburgh

Posts:98,152
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Message Posted: Nov 10, 2014 6:35:22 AM

What is sad is the numbers choosing Other / nothing.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2014 2:29:36 AM

I have no idea. I'll pass this one.
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SUVFan
Champion Author Columbus

Posts:290,409
Points:2,271,405
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Message Posted: Nov 9, 2014 12:23:29 AM

Up late after watching my Buckeyes kick some Sparty butt! So here's my swag!

• Save/invest/retire---------1
• Entertainment/fun ---------30
• Debt reduction------------20
• Shopping ------------------10
• More driving --------------20
• Other / nothing-----------15
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:49:13 PM

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
• Save/invest/retire---------20
• Entertainment/fun ---------8
• Debt reduction------------15
• Shopping ------------------4
• More driving --------------15
• Other / nothing-----------35

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,261
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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:34:10 PM

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
29 • Savings/investment/retirement
13 • (Entertainment)/fun
13 • Debt reduction
08 • Shopping
11 • More driving
24 • Other / nothing in particular
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:25:37 AM

Here are my predictions.

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
05 • Savings/investment/retirement
20 • Entertainment/fun
25 • Debt reduction
10 • Shopping
10 • More driving
30 • Other / nothing in particular
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Nov 5, 2014 1:08:27 AM

Results for 2014-45 with 14600 votes tallied.
Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?

Prognosticator----------------------jerry - - - bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• Convertible top----------------------3 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - 1
• 4-wheel/all-wheel drive --------------4 - - - - (5) - - - - -(26) - - - (15)
• Towing/hauling capacity ------------13 - - - -15 - - - - - - (1) - - - - -1
• Seating/cargo capacity ------------(23) - - - (26) - - - - - 15 - - - - 15
• Entertainment/electronics------------6 - - - - 13 - - - - - - -4 - - - - -1
Score--------------------------------49 - - - - 61 - - - - - - 47 - - - - 30

I was surprised by the popularity of 4wd; that was my choice due to where I live but most folks won’t need 4wd to get home in winter. Guess I was wrong on that assumption.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 11:53:58 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
• Convertible top----------------------3
• 4-wheel/all-wheel drive-------------16
• Towing/hauling capacity -------------8
• Seating/cargo capacity--------------60
• Entertainment/electronics-----------10

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,261
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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 11:05:33 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
03 • Convertible (top)
05 • 4-wheel/all-wheel (drive)
06 • (Towing)/hauling capacity
63 • Seating/cargo capacity (3 * 21 characters)
13 • (Entertainment)/electronics
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,930
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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 9:39:35 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
04 • Convertible top
26 • 4-wheel/all-wheel drive
22 • Towing/hauling capacity
22 • Seating/cargo capacity
22 • Entertainment/electronics
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 2:06:59 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
05 • Convertible top
35 • 4-wheel/all-wheel drive
20 • Towing/hauling capacity
25 • Seating/cargo capacity
15 • Entertainment/electronics
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Oct 31, 2014 12:21:42 AM

Results for 2014-44 with 19200 votes tallied.
Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------(23) - - - - - 0 - - - - -(6) - - - - (11)
• No-------------------4 - - - - - (3) - - - - -5 - - - - - - 9
• No opinion-----------19 - - - - - -3 - - - - - 1 - - - - - - 2
Score-----------------46 - - - - - 6 - - - - -12 - - - - - 22

Congratulations Z, good work.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 27, 2014 12:14:37 AM

Z's character counting worked well this week.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 26, 2014 12:38:33 AM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
70 • Yes
20 • No
08 • No opinion

[Edited by: bugc at 10/26/2014 12:39:11 AM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 11:27:59 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
• Yes-----------------75
• No------------------16
• No opinion------------7
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,261
Points:2,250,150
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Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 11:07:56 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
08 • No (2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 8:39:28 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
58 • Yes
15 • No
25 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 12:55:40 AM

Results for 2014-43 with 20100 votes tallied.
Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?

Prognosticator-----------jrsva - - - jerry - - - bugc
• Yes, once or twice -------(1) - - - - 9 - - - - - (1)
• Yes, several times---------0 - - - - (2) - - - - - 0
• No------------------------3 - - - -(13) - - - - -3
• NA / Automatic lights-----(1) - - - -9 - - - - - -(1)
Score-----------------------5 - - - - 33 - - - - - 5

Bugc and I both guessed that there would be no change from last year, hence the tie.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 20, 2014 12:11:44 AM

Results for 2014-42 with final tally of 22837 votes.
If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - bugc - - - jerry
• Sedan/Coupe----------1 - - - - -6 - - - - -(4)
• Pickup truck-----------8 - - - - -3 - - - - - 3
• Crossover/SUV -------(7) - - - (4) - - - - -8
• Van/Minivan-----------2 - - - - 1 - - - - - 1
• Sports car -----------(3) - - - (3) - - - - (2)
• Other----------------(1) - - - -(4) - - - - (3)
Score------------------22 - - - -21 - - - - -21

Congratulations Bug and Jerry! This must be the closest game ever.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 5:08:47 PM

WOW! I think last weeks scores are the closest grouping ever. There were big differences in the predictions. I see Jerry and me in a tie with jrs one point behind!

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:17:14 AM

I just noticed my guess is the same as jrsva. I suppose we could split the prize.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:15:11 AM

OK, I'll "guess" it will be the same as last year.

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
Yes, once or twice----18%
Yes, several times-----2%
No-----56%
NA / Automatic lights-----22%
Total votes: 20912
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 11:29:17 PM


“It looks like we are going to get a rerun of last year’s poll. The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site, where it is >midnight AT.”   And this time it really is Sunday in Halifax and the new poll is not yet up.
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 7:49:02 PM

Hey, for once I am not the first one posting. (I usually post around dinnertime on Saturday)

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
• Yes, once or twice -------28
• Yes, several times---------0
• No-----------------------40
• NA / Automatic lights-----32
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 12:53:21 AM


Oh sh--, I did it again. My day has seemed like a Saturday all day long so I'm totally confused. Made the same mistake a couple of months ago. Sheesh. A brain is a terrible thing to lose.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 12:25:59 AM

"The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site..." Yes it is only Saturday morning in Halifax..... ;-)

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2014 11:14:39 PM

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
• Yes, once or twice -------18
• Yes, several times---------2
• No-----------------------56
• NA / Automatic lights-----22

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Oct 17, 2014 11:11:09 PM

A slight shift in the numbers and it is now even closer. I will post results tomorrow after the poll closes.

It looks like we are going to get a rerun of last year’s poll. The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site, where it is >midnight AT.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 13, 2014 11:41:33 PM


Wow, too close to call again. We'll see what happens as the week progresses.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 11:20:51 PM

Results for 2014-41 with a final vote total of 18517:
Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?

Prognosticator--------------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Rush-hour-specific tolls-------------3 - - - - 2 - - - - - 5
• Encourage carpooling--------------(1) - - - (2) - - - - 13
• Increase roadway capacity --------(1) - - - -2 - - - - (1)
• Better public transportation-------(11) - - - (9) - - - -(1)
• Flexible work schedules-----------(12) - - - (7) - - - (20)
• More telecommuting----------------9 - - - -13 - - - - -3
Score------------------------------37 - - - -35 - - - - 43

Back to a two-point gap or maybe I made a counting error before.
If Bugc had flipped his vote between carpools and flextime he would have won handily.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/12/2014 11:22:21 PM EST]
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 1:21:25 AM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe-------- 30
• Pickup truck----------20
• Crossover/SUV------- 40
• Van/Minivan-----------7
• Sports car-------------2
• Other-----------------1
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:24:13 AM


I still see just one point between me and Jerry.
I'll recheck it after the poll closes later today.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:19:35 AM

one-point game for last week? I now see a two point spread with jrsva winning, but I could be wrong.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,930
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Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:08:12 AM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe-------- 40
• Pickup truck----------20
• Crossover/SUV------- 28
• Van/Minivan-----------7
• Sports car-------------1
• Other-----------------0
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
Points:2,260,575
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Message Posted: Oct 11, 2014 11:57:26 PM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe---------35
• Pickup truck----------25
• Crossover/SUV-------25
• Van/Minivan-----------8
• Sports car-------------1
• Other-----------------3

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 11, 2014 11:29:20 PM


I was hoping to post the results before the new guesses come in but it is still a one-point game. I'm going to wait until the poll closes in Hawaii and post the final results tomorrow.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 7, 2014 11:47:37 PM


Too close to call. In fact we are running a tie right now.
I'll wait until Saturday to post results.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 5, 2014 4:58:01 PM

I haven't looked....

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
07-Rush-hour-specific tolls
24-Encourage carpooling
17-Increase roadway capacity
22-Better public transportation
12-Flexible work schedules
15-More telecommuting
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,839
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Message Posted: Oct 5, 2014 12:12:25 AM

I just got in and almost forgot to make my guesses — really wild guesses this week.

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
• Rush-hour-specific tolls-------------4
• Encourage carpooling---------------9
• Increase roadway capacity--------20
• Better public transportation--------14
• Flexible work schedules------------25
• More telecommuting---------------25

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 4:14:38 PM

Here is my prediction for the coming week:

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
05 • Rush-hour-specific tolls
10 • Encourage carpooling
17 • Increase roadway capacity
12 • Better public transportation
20 • Flexible work schedules
21 • More telecommuting
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 4:13:20 PM

Thanks for the catching the error, bugc. Since the blogs were talking about Waldo, FL, the poll was timely although definitely in the imbalanced answer category.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 1:01:07 AM

I definitely agree with Byte. We have typically rejected polls that have one answer that is almost certain to draw >90% of the vote; they are just not very interesting. I think we got mousetrapped on this one when we tried to convert a survey question on speed traps into an opinion poll. Oh well, we’ll do better next time.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 12:56:17 AM

Right you are Bugc, good catch. I made an error when I transcribed Jerry’s predictions.

Revised results for 2014-40 with 15900 votes tallied.
Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------(2) - - - (3) - - - - (3)
• No-----------------1 - - - - 5 - - - - - 3
• No opinion----------1 - - - -(1) - - - - -0
Score----------------4 - - - - 9 - - - - - 6

Congrats Jerry, sorry for the error.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 2:07:20 PM

Jerry predicted 90 for "No". I think Jerry was the winner.

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Byte_Doctor
Champion Author Akron

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Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 8:45:32 AM

On the one hand, I agree, but on the other hand, this was a pretty pointless poll - in hindsight, we *all* knew it would generate those results. I'd much rather have a poll where the results are interesting, not "well, yeah, of course 90%+ voted No. Duh!"
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