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jrsva
Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 1, 2015 12:05:30 AM

Do you feel it's beneficial to bundle insurance policies with one company?
07 *Yes, for convenience
07 *Yes, for better pricing
80 *Yes, both of the above
02 *No
03 *No opinion / NA
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 26, 2015 11:36:59 AM

Results for 2015-09 with 17200 votes tallied.
Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?

Prognosticator---------bugc - - - jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• Significantly-----------(11) - - - -(12) - - - - (3) - - - - -(1)
• Minimally---------------(5)- - - - -15 - - - - -13 - - - - - -5
• No---------------------14 - - - - - -1 - - - - (13) - - - - -(4)
• No opinion---------------2 - - - - - (3) - - - - (1) - - - - - 0
Score--------------------32 - - - - - 31 - - - - -30 - - - - -10

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2015 12:12:06 AM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
• Significantly------------15
• Minimally---------------55
• No---------------------25
• No opinion---------------3
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 11:09:28 PM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
13 • Significantly
63 • Minimally (7 * 9 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
02 • (No) opinion
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 12:18:16 PM

Thank you for going first this week, bugc. Nice job on last week's poll.

Here is my prediction

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
04 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
00 • No opinion

[Edited by: jerry972 at 2/21/2015 12:20:32 PM EST]
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:29:47 PM

First guess:


Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
45 • Minimally
43 • No
05 • No opinion

How will "minimally" be interpreted by the voters?
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:23:34 PM

Wow, a sudden swing toward the yes:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 16%
No 83%
Total votes: 18270

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 12:58:48 AM

The poll has been holding at 14/85 for a long time, but at this moment it is:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 15%
No 84%
Total votes: 17551

Easy score calculation this week!
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 17, 2015 1:11:21 AM

I guessed right on the shifting for a while, but the vote has now been tracking last year's poll.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 9:25:05 PM

Actually, I didn't peek this time. I checked the 2014#8 poll result:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 14%
No 85%
Total votes: 18567

and then figured I'd move 1% of the "yes" vote to "no" thinking the demographics may have possibly shifted in that direction.
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 2:53:53 PM

Hey bugc, no fair peeking! (The numbers in your prediction match exactly the results at the time I write this)
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 12:19:10 AM

They repeated last year's question:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
13 * Yes
86 * No
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 14, 2015 8:17:58 PM

Once again - first out of the gate:

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
01 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 12, 2015 12:09:46 AM

Results for 2015-07 with 18100 votes tallied.
Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?

Prognosticator------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc - - - ziyulu
• Yes---------------18 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (3) - - - - 2
• No---------------(13) - - - - 2 - - - - - -(3) - - - (4)
• IDK ---------------(4) - - - -(3) - - - - - -4 - - - - -3
Score---------------35 - - - - - 5 - - - - - -10 - - - - 9

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 11, 2015 2:48:44 PM

It would always be a multiply of the number of key words. So, sometimes I manipulate the numbers and find a factor that makes everything add up close to 100%.
a5
Champion Author Ottawa

Posts:4,897
Points:2,737,500
Joined:Sep 2005
Message Posted: Feb 9, 2015 8:41:45 PM

"I would use the number of characters in the key words to help me come up with the numbers."

and where do you get your multiplying factor from?

i.e. why is YES 3^3 and No 2^6?
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 7:48:47 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 12:32:56 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
22 • Yes
65 • No
10 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 11:55:56 PM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
• Yes---------------25
• No----------------70
• IDK ----------------3
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 5:19:52 PM

I was surprised also.

Here are my predictions for next week:

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
43 • Yes
55 • No
02 • No opinion
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 4, 2015 12:26:29 AM

Results for 2015-06 with 17600 votes tallied.
Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?

Prognosticator--------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------------------(9) - - - - (9) - - - -(11)
• No---------------------------(16) - - - (11) - - - - (19)
• I don't change grades---------23 - - - - 18 - - - - - 26
• I don't use gasoline-------------4 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 4
Score---------------------------52 - - - - -40 - - - - - 60

Wow, we were all bad this week. I’m really surprised at how many folks change grades.

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:16:52 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
08 • Yes
12 • No
73 • I don't change grades
05 • I don't use gasoline
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:06:59 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
• Yes---------------------------10
• No----------------------------20
• I don't change grades-----------65
• I don't use gasoline--------------3
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Jan 31, 2015 8:23:48 PM

Here are my predictions for the coming week.

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
10 • Yes
15 • No
70 • I don't change grades
05 • I don't use gasoline
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 31, 2015 11:58:30 AM

Results for 2015-05 with 20000 votes tallied.
Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?

Prognosticator--------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - bugc
• My inspection---------------10 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 10
• My mechanic---------------(35) - - - -(5) - - - - (15)
• My friend---------------------9 - - - - (1) - - - - - -9
• Vehicle history--------------20 - - - - - 3 - - - - - (2)
• Seller's report----------------2 - - - - - 0 - - - - - -0
• Prior owner------------------(1) - - - - (1) - - - - -(1)
Score-------------------------77 - - - - -12 - - - - - 37

Runaway win; congratulations Z.

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 27, 2015 9:55:59 AM

Since we are to guess numbers, I would use the number of characters in the key words to help me come up with the numbers.
a5
Champion Author Ottawa

Posts:4,897
Points:2,737,500
Joined:Sep 2005
Message Posted: Jan 27, 2015 9:14:33 AM

Z, how does your character counting theory work? I remember you explained it once before but I can't remember. Is there ANY connection between number of characters people's tendency to choose?
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 5:09:07 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
50 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
08 • An independent vehicle history report
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 25, 2015 2:49:38 AM

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?

22 • My inspection/test drive
60 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice (2 * 30 characters)
00 • My friend's inspection
13 • An independent vehicle (history report)
00 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Jan 24, 2015 11:10:35 PM

It is already past midnight on the East Coast but here are my predictions:

Which would you trust most if buying a used vehicle?
30 • My inspection/test drive
30 • Inspection by mechanic of my choice
10 • My friend's inspection
30 • An independent vehicle history report
02 • Seller's inspection report
00 • The prior owner's comments
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 20, 2015 12:30:57 AM

No win by default this week, but it has happened.
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 19, 2015 4:20:05 PM


I’ll calculate results later in the week when I’m feeling better, if you like, or one of you guys could go ahead and do it. OR, we know who won without running any numbers.   ;o)
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 8:28:48 AM

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
72 • Always (12 * 6 characters)
18 • Sometimes (2 * 9 characters)
05 • Never
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 18, 2015 3:27:35 AM

I was going to pass, but since nobody seems to be playing, I'll make a ridiculous prediction:

When filling up, do you pay attention to the price on the pump vs. the price on the sign?
33 Always
33 Sometimes
33 Never

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 14, 2015 12:36:40 AM

Results for 2015-03 with 18800 votes tallied.
The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:

Prognosticator--------ziyulu - - - bugc - - - jrsva
• Intentional-------------0 - - - - - (6) - - - - (6)
• Unintentional ---------(2) - - - - -4 - - - - - (6)
• I never did-------------0 - - - - - 4 - - - - - -9
• I don’t remember-------3 - - - - (1) - - - - - -2
Score--------------------5 - - - - 15 - - - - - 23

Good work Z, that’s pretty amazing.

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:59:12 PM

This one is pure guesswork for me.

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
• Intentional-------------5
• Unintentional ---------35
• I never did------------45
• I don’t remember -----13

bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:50:45 PM

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
05 • Intentional
45 • Unintentional
40 • I never did
10 • I don’t remember
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jan 10, 2015 11:35:40 PM

The last time you drove the wrong way on a public street, road, or highway it was:
11 • Intentional
39 • Unintentional (3 * 13 characters)
36 • I never did (4 * 9 characters)
14 • I don’t remember
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 5, 2015 11:20:44 PM


Thanks for self scoring; I was not going to bother doing the arithmetic.
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 5, 2015 3:15:28 AM

With no other guesses, I probably set a new, all time record:

Do you think the national average price for gasoline will go under $2 US per gallon (85¢ CA per liter) in 2015, and if so, when?

20 -In the first quarter of 2015---- 38
10 -In the second quarter of 2015--- 6
05 -In the third quarter of 2015---- (3)
05 -In the fourth quarter of 2015--- (4)
55 -Not in 2015---------------------------- (34)

Score ---------------------------------------- 85

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 4, 2015 6:39:39 PM


I did not guess this week because the poll came out early and I saw the results after ~2500 votes had posted. It is now at 12700 votes and the tally is 58 / 16 / 2 / 1 / 21.
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jan 3, 2015 12:35:47 AM

Do you think the national average price for gasoline will go under $2 US per gallon (85¢ CA per liter) in 2015, and if so, when?

20 -In the first quarter of 2015
10 -In the second quarter of 2015
05 -In the third quarter of 2015
05 -In the fourth quarter of 2015
55 -Not in 2015
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jan 1, 2015 11:58:18 AM

Results for 2014-53 with 17500 votes tallied.
What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?

Prognosticator---------------bugc - - - jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Vehicle taxes and fees---------7 - - - - 1 - - - - - 3 - - - - - 3
• Fuel taxes---------------------1 - - -(10) - - - (11) - - - - (6)
• Other tax revenue-------------4 - - - - 3 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 3
• Tolls and parking fees----------4 - - - 13 - - - - - 8 - - - - -(1)
• Higher fares-----------------(19) - - - -5 - - - --10 - - - - (2)
• Other-------------------------3 - - - (8) - - - -(11) - - - - 2
Score--------------------------38 - - - 40 - - - - -45 - - - - 17

Congratulations Z, well done.

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 28, 2014 12:37:23 AM

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
12 • (Vehicle taxes) and fees
09 • Fuel taxes
15 • Other tax revenue
11 • Tolls and (parking fees)
33 • Higher fares (3 * 11 characters)
15 • Other (3 * 5 characters)
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 11:44:31 PM

I think Jerry is on the right track; I’ll just fiddle with his numbers a little.

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
• Vehicle taxes and fees--------12
• Fuel taxes---------------------4
• Other tax revenue-------------14
• Tolls and parking fees---------20
• Higher fares-------------------45
• Other--------------------------2

jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,273
Points:1,969,370
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 6:29:29 PM

I recall a poll like this a few years back but I don't recall the answers.

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
10 • Vehicle taxes and fees
05 • Fuel taxes
15 • Other tax revenue
25 • Tolls and parking fees
40 • Higher fares
05 • Other
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 27, 2014 12:16:49 AM

Next week's poll is a real mystery for me. I'll try an equal weighting:

What main source should be used to cover deficits in public transportation?
16 • Vehicle taxes and fees
16 • Fuel taxes
16 • Other tax revenue
16 • Tolls and parking fees
16 • Higher fares
16 • Other
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 24, 2014 12:18:19 AM

Results for 2014-52 with 18400 votes tallied.
How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?

Prognosticator------------bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• More than $50-------------6 - - - - - 3 - - - - - (4)
• $40 to 50----------------(11) - - - (17) - - - - (21)
• $30 to 40-----------------11 - - - - - 0 - - - - - 11
• Less than $30--------------0 - - - - - 1 - - - - - 10
• No opinion-----------------7 - - - - 22 - - - - - - 6
Score----------------------35 - - - -43 - - - - - -52

The guesses got worse as time went by. Congrats Bugc for being the least bad.   ;o)

jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,340
Points:2,390,125
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 21, 2014 12:03:00 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
• More than $50------------15
• $40 to 50-----------------20
• $30 to 40-----------------25
• Less than $30-------------20
• No opinion----------------18

ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,760
Points:2,379,925
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 11:18:59 PM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
22 • More than $50 (2 * 11 characters)
24 • $40 to $50 (3 * 8 characters)
16 • $30 to $40 (2 * 8 characters)
11 • Less than $30
27 • No opinion (3 * 9 characters)
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,450
Points:3,772,675
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 5:01:38 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
25 • More than $50
30 • $40 to $50
25 • $30 to $40
10 • Less than $30
05 • No opinion


[Edited by: bugc at 12/20/2014 5:03:10 AM EST]
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