Not Logged In Log In   Sign Up   Points Leaders
Follow Us    9:22 AM

Message Forum - Read Message

Category: Talk back to us! > Topics Add to favorite topics   Post new topicPost New Topic
Author Topic: Poll Predictions Back to Topics
jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 21, 2014 12:03:00 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
• More than $50------------15
• $40 to 50-----------------20
• $30 to 40-----------------25
• Less than $30-------------20
• No opinion----------------18

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 11:18:59 PM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
22 • More than $50 (2 * 11 characters)
24 • $40 to $50 (3 * 8 characters)
16 • $30 to $40 (2 * 8 characters)
11 • Less than $30
27 • No opinion (3 * 9 characters)
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 20, 2014 5:01:38 AM

How low do you think oil prices will go before the next significant rebound?
25 • More than $50
30 • $40 to $50
25 • $30 to $40
10 • Less than $30
05 • No opinion


[Edited by: bugc at 12/20/2014 5:03:10 AM EST]
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 19, 2014 12:13:49 AM

We were close to each other but all were far off the mark....

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 18, 2014 11:24:35 PM

Results for 2014-51 with 26300 votes tallied.
At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?

Prognosticator-----ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• 70 or below---------4 - - - - - (2) - - - - (7)
• 75----------------(11) - - - - (7) - - - - (2)
• 80------------------1 - - - - -10 - - - - - 5
• 85 or above---------9 - - - - - -6 - - - - 11
• Never--------------(9) - - - - (6) - - - -(4)
Score----------------34 - - - - -31 - - - - 29

Congrats Bugc; it is still close but it does not appear that any likely change could shift the result.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 14, 2014 2:56:39 AM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
25 > 70 or below
25 > 75
20 > 80
20 > 85 or above
10 > Never
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 14, 2014 12:01:23 AM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
• 70 or below--------30
• 75-----------------20
• 80-----------------25
• 85 or above--------15
• Never---------------8

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Dec 13, 2014 11:24:09 PM

At what age do you think retesting of drivers should begin?
36 • 70 or below (4 * 9 characters)
16 • 75 (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
16 • 80 (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
18 • 85 or above (2 * 9 characters)
05 • Never
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 9, 2014 11:27:54 PM

Results for 2014-50 with 15700 votes tallied.
Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes------------------(1) - - - - (6)
• No--------------------3 - - - - - 7
• Not sure -------------(2) - - - - -0
Score-------------------6 - - - - 13

Only two of us ventured a guess this week. We both thought that “no” would predominate compared to last year but we both overstated the change a bit.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Dec 7, 2014 4:06:42 AM

Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?
• Yes-------------10
• No--------------84
• Not sure---------5
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 7, 2014 12:06:10 AM

Are gas prices and related transportation costs forcing you to spend less than usual for the Christmas/Hannukah holidays?
• Yes-------------15
• No--------------80
• Not sure---------3
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,036
Points:1,905,800
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Dec 6, 2014 11:34:05 PM

It is after midnight on the East Coast and we still don't know which poll is going to post so I am passing on predictions this week.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 3, 2014 11:31:34 AM

Results for 2014-49 with 17600 votes counted.
Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?

Prognosticator-------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes-------------------------(15) - - - - -2 - - - - -(5) - - - - (15)
• No---------------------------17 - - - - - 1 - - - - - -7 - - - - - 15
• I don't change brands---------(6) - - - - (5) - - - - -(2) - - - - -(1)
• I don't use gasoline------------5 - - - - - (1) - - - - - 0 - - - - - -3
Score--------------------------43 - - - - - 9 - - - - - 14 - - - - - 34

Congratulations Z, single-digits is good for this poll.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Dec 1, 2014 12:46:47 AM

Results for 2014-48 with a final tally of 18962 votes.
Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:

Prognosticator-------bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• A lot more ------------0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (1)
• A little more----------(1) - - - - -0 - - - - - -0
• About same----------(2) - - - - (2) - - - - -12
• Less------------------5 - - - - - -4 - - - - - -2
• Alternate means-------0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - 2
• I’m not traveling -----(1) - - - - (2) - - - - (9)
Score-------------------9 - - - - - 8 - - - - -26

What a squeaker! Bug voted for no change and I voted for a small change; it changed more than either of us thought, I supposed due to lower prices.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 30, 2014 4:55:53 AM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
10 • Yes
78 • No
08 • I don't change brands
04 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 11:57:17 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
• Yes--------------------------20
• No---------------------------70
• I don't change brands---------7
• I don't use gasoline -----------1

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 11:28:05 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
04 • I (don't) change brands
00 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,036
Points:1,905,800
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Nov 29, 2014 5:08:34 PM

Do you notice a difference in performance when using different brands of gasoline?
10 • Yes
80 • No
03 • I don't change brands
06 • I don't use gasoline
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 27, 2014 11:29:36 PM


Still too close to call again this week, which is no surprise since my guess and Bug’s differed by only 3 points. I will post results on Sunday.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 25, 2014 4:57:39 AM

Close! Congratulations jrsva!

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 23, 2014 11:28:19 PM

Results for 2014-47 with a final total of 18736 votes.
When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:

Prognosticator---------------ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Regular only-----------------(27) - - - -(18) - - - (20)
• Diesel only --------------------4 - - - - - -1 - - - - - 0
• All grades on the signs--------25 - - - - -28 - - - - 26
• All grades sold-----------------0 - - - - -(1) - - - - -2
• Other-------------------------4 - - - - -(1) - - - - - 1
• I don’t post prices-----------(10) - - - - (8) - - - (10)
Score-------------------------70 - - - - -57 - - - - -59

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 11:36:42 PM

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
A (lot) more than last year 3%
A (little) more than last year 6%
About the same as last year 66% (3 * 22 characters)
Less than last year 16%
Going by alternate means (plane, train, (etc).) 3%
I’m not traveling at all this year/(not my turn) 9%
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 11:10:06 PM

I was going to guess the same as last year but Bug preempted that choice so I will guess slightly more travel due to lower gas prices.

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
• A lot more-------------4
• A little more-----------6
• About same----------52
• Less-----------------18
• Alternate means-------1
• I’m not traveling -----16

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 22, 2014 9:43:29 PM

OK, I'll guess the same as last year:

Compared to last year, will your driving for holiday gatherings be:
A lot more than last year 4%
A little more than last year 5%
About the same as last year 52%
Less than last year 19%
Going by alternate means (plane, train, etc.) 1%
I’m not traveling at all this year/not my turn 17%
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 19, 2014 11:41:52 PM


Boy, none of us was any good this week. We all fell for the idea that most folks posted what they could see on the signs. I was going to post results but the numbers are changing just enough that results may not be definitive yet.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 16, 2014 8:28:22 AM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
18 -Regular only
02 -Diesel only
58 -All grades on the signs
15 -All grades sold
02 -Other
00 -I don’t post prices
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:55:35 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
• Regular only------------------20
• Diesel only --------------------3
• All grades on the signs--------60
• All grades sold----------------12
• Other--------------------------0
• I don’t post prices-------------2

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 15, 2014 11:05:41 PM

When I post prices on GasBuddy I most frequently post:
11 • Regular only
06 • (Diesel) only
57 • All grades on the signs (3 * 19 characters)
13 • All grades sold
05 • Other
00 • I don’t post prices
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 13, 2014 12:10:04 AM

Results for 2014-46 with 15500 votes tallied.
The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:

Prognosticator------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - suvfan
• Save/invest/retire---------(5) - - - - 14 - - - - - 5 - - - - - (14)
• Entertainment/fun --------17 - - - - -10 - - - - -5 - - - - - - 27
• Debt reduction-------------1 - - - - (11) - - - - (9) - - - - - (4)
• Shopping ------------------5 - - - - - -3- - - - -(1) - - - - - -5
• More driving ---------------6 - - - - - -7 - - - - -11 - - - - - 16
• Other / nothing ----------(15) - - - -(21) - - - -(10) - - - - (30)
Score-----------------------49 - - - - - 66 - - - - -41 - - - - - 96

Wow, none of us were really very good this week. Tough question IMO.

Profile Pic
scoutmaster
Champion Author Pittsburgh

Posts:99,065
Points:3,941,715
Joined:Mar 2003
Message Posted: Nov 10, 2014 6:35:22 AM

What is sad is the numbers choosing Other / nothing.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 9, 2014 2:29:36 AM

I have no idea. I'll pass this one.
Profile Pic
SUVFan
Champion Author Columbus

Posts:308,122
Points:2,311,330
Joined:Oct 2008
Message Posted: Nov 9, 2014 12:23:29 AM

Up late after watching my Buckeyes kick some Sparty butt! So here's my swag!

• Save/invest/retire---------1
• Entertainment/fun ---------30
• Debt reduction------------20
• Shopping ------------------10
• More driving --------------20
• Other / nothing-----------15
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:49:13 PM

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
• Save/invest/retire---------20
• Entertainment/fun ---------8
• Debt reduction------------15
• Shopping ------------------4
• More driving --------------15
• Other / nothing-----------35

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:34:10 PM

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
29 • Savings/investment/retirement
13 • (Entertainment)/fun
13 • Debt reduction
08 • Shopping
11 • More driving
24 • Other / nothing in particular
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,036
Points:1,905,800
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Nov 8, 2014 11:25:37 AM

Here are my predictions.

The money I’m saving from lower fuel prices is going mainly into:
05 • Savings/investment/retirement
20 • Entertainment/fun
25 • Debt reduction
10 • Shopping
10 • More driving
30 • Other / nothing in particular
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 5, 2014 1:08:27 AM

Results for 2014-45 with 14600 votes tallied.
Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?

Prognosticator----------------------jerry - - - bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• Convertible top----------------------3 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - 1
• 4-wheel/all-wheel drive --------------4 - - - - (5) - - - - -(26) - - - (15)
• Towing/hauling capacity ------------13 - - - -15 - - - - - - (1) - - - - -1
• Seating/cargo capacity ------------(23) - - - (26) - - - - - 15 - - - - 15
• Entertainment/electronics------------6 - - - - 13 - - - - - - -4 - - - - -1
Score--------------------------------49 - - - - 61 - - - - - - 47 - - - - 30

I was surprised by the popularity of 4wd; that was my choice due to where I live but most folks won’t need 4wd to get home in winter. Guess I was wrong on that assumption.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 11:53:58 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
• Convertible top----------------------3
• 4-wheel/all-wheel drive-------------16
• Towing/hauling capacity -------------8
• Seating/cargo capacity--------------60
• Entertainment/electronics-----------10

Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 11:05:33 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
03 • Convertible (top)
05 • 4-wheel/all-wheel (drive)
06 • (Towing)/hauling capacity
63 • Seating/cargo capacity (3 * 21 characters)
13 • (Entertainment)/electronics
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 9:39:35 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
04 • Convertible top
26 • 4-wheel/all-wheel drive
22 • Towing/hauling capacity
22 • Seating/cargo capacity
22 • Entertainment/electronics
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,036
Points:1,905,800
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Nov 1, 2014 2:06:59 PM

Which of these features would be most important in selecting a primary vehicle?
05 • Convertible top
35 • 4-wheel/all-wheel drive
20 • Towing/hauling capacity
25 • Seating/cargo capacity
15 • Entertainment/electronics
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 31, 2014 12:21:42 AM

Results for 2014-44 with 19200 votes tallied.
Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------(23) - - - - - 0 - - - - -(6) - - - - (11)
• No-------------------4 - - - - - (3) - - - - -5 - - - - - - 9
• No opinion-----------19 - - - - - -3 - - - - - 1 - - - - - - 2
Score-----------------46 - - - - - 6 - - - - -12 - - - - - 22

Congratulations Z, good work.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 27, 2014 12:14:37 AM

Z's character counting worked well this week.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 26, 2014 12:38:33 AM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
70 • Yes
20 • No
08 • No opinion

[Edited by: bugc at 10/26/2014 12:39:11 AM EST]
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 11:27:59 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
• Yes-----------------75
• No------------------16
• No opinion------------7
Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,405
Points:2,292,130
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 11:07:56 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
08 • No (2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,036
Points:1,905,800
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 8:39:28 PM

Should vehicle manufacturers be allowed to sell directly to the public without requiring local dealers?
58 • Yes
15 • No
25 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 25, 2014 12:55:40 AM

Results for 2014-43 with 20100 votes tallied.
Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?

Prognosticator-----------jrsva - - - jerry - - - bugc
• Yes, once or twice -------(1) - - - - 9 - - - - - (1)
• Yes, several times---------0 - - - - (2) - - - - - 0
• No------------------------3 - - - -(13) - - - - -3
• NA / Automatic lights-----(1) - - - -9 - - - - - -(1)
Score-----------------------5 - - - - 33 - - - - - 5

Bugc and I both guessed that there would be no change from last year, hence the tie.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,987
Points:2,303,600
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 20, 2014 12:11:44 AM

Results for 2014-42 with final tally of 22837 votes.
If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - bugc - - - jerry
• Sedan/Coupe----------1 - - - - -6 - - - - -(4)
• Pickup truck-----------8 - - - - -3 - - - - - 3
• Crossover/SUV -------(7) - - - (4) - - - - -8
• Van/Minivan-----------2 - - - - 1 - - - - - 1
• Sports car -----------(3) - - - (3) - - - - (2)
• Other----------------(1) - - - -(4) - - - - (3)
Score------------------22 - - - -21 - - - - -21

Congratulations Bug and Jerry! This must be the closest game ever.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 5:08:47 PM

WOW! I think last weeks scores are the closest grouping ever. There were big differences in the predictions. I see Jerry and me in a tie with jrs one point behind!

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:17:14 AM

I just noticed my guess is the same as jrsva. I suppose we could split the prize.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,083
Points:3,685,925
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:15:11 AM

OK, I'll "guess" it will be the same as last year.

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
Yes, once or twice----18%
Yes, several times-----2%
No-----56%
NA / Automatic lights-----22%
Total votes: 20912
Post a reply Back to Topics