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jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
Points:3,447,200
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Message Posted: Jul 23, 2014 12:30:30 AM

Congratulations to jrsva.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jul 22, 2014 12:49:21 AM

Results for 2014-30 with 13600 votes tallied.
What vehicle fuel type do you purchase most often?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Regular-------------(3) - - - -(3) - - - - (1) - - - - -(8)
• Mid-Grade-----------2 - - - - -4 - - - - -(1) - - - - - 1
• Premium------------(2) - - - -(1) - - - - -0 - - - - - -1
• Diesel---------------4 - - - - -2 - - - - - 1 - - - - - - 2
• E-85----------------1 - - - - -0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - -0
• Electric -------------0 - - - - -0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - -0
• Natural Gas ---------0 - - - - -0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - -0
• Other---------------1 - - - - -1 - - - - - - 0 - - - - - 5
Score-----------------13 - - - - -11 - - - - - -3 - - - - - -17

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

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Points:2,054,450
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Message Posted: Jul 20, 2014 12:18:56 AM

You cannot find E-85 nor natural gas prices on this website and electric car owners will probably not visit this website either, that's why I predict 0.

What vehicle fuel type do you purchase most often?
77 • Regular (11 * 7 characters)
03 • (Mid) Grade
07 • Premium
06 • Diesel
00 • E-85
00 • Electric
00 • Natural Gas
05 • Other
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jul 20, 2014 12:18:48 AM

What vehicle fuel type do you purchase most often?
• Regular------------84
• Mid-Grade-----------1
• Premium------------6
• Diesel---------------5
• E-85----------------0
• Electric--------------0
• Natural Gas----------0
• Other----------------0

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
Points:3,447,200
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Message Posted: Jul 19, 2014 9:46:57 PM

What vehicle fuel type do you purchase most often?
82 • Regular
06 • Mid Grade
05 • Premium
06 • Diesel
00 • E-85
00 • Electric
00 • Natural Gas
01 • Other
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,505
Points:1,735,345
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Message Posted: Jul 19, 2014 6:07:06 PM

Here are my predictions for the coming week:
What vehicle fuel type do you purchase most often?
82 • Regular
04 • Mid Grade
04 • Premium
08 • Diesel
01 • E-85
00 • Electric
00 • Natural Gas
01 • Other
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jul 17, 2014 12:00:43 AM

Results for 2014-29 with 17900 votes tallied.
When your primary vehicle is locked, how do you usually unlock it?

Prognosticator-------------jrsva - - - bugc - - - jerry - - - ziyulu
• Key------------------------(5) - - - - (3) - - - - (4) - - - - (11)
• Button on remote ----------12 - - - - - 6 - - - - -14 - - - - - -2
• PIN pad / keypad------------0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - -0 - - - - - -2
• Proximity detector----------(4) - - - - (4) - - - - (6) - - - - - 2
• Smartphone app ------------0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - -3
• Other----------------------(1) - - - - -3 - - - - - 0 - - - - - -4
Score------------------------22 - - - - 16 - - - - -24 - - - - -24

Congratulations Bugc. Pretty close game this week, especially among the other three of us.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 13, 2014 11:41:19 PM

Bug, I think the decision was that everyone’s car gets locked at least occasionally. Mine is never locked on the farm but I do lock it when in the city. If the mechanism is broken so that it can never be locked then ‘other’ would have to do. We should have used “Other/NA.” Perhaps that was my error.
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

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Message Posted: Jul 13, 2014 8:29:49 AM

When your primary vehicle is locked, how do you usually unlock it?
09 • Key (3 * 3 characters)
70 • Button on remote (5 * 14 characters)
03 • (PIN) pad / keypad
08 • Proximity (detector)
03 • Smartphone (app)
05 • Other
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Jul 13, 2014 1:01:28 AM

My predictions:

When your primary vehicle is locked, how do you usually unlock it?
• Key------------------------16
• Button on remote----------82
• PIN pad / keypad------------1
• Proximity detector-----------0
• Smartphone app ------------0
• Other-----------------------1
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jul 13, 2014 12:21:27 AM

jrsva. Your guess looks good. I'll stay close. What happened to the "I don't lock it" choice? Maybe folks will use other in that case.

When your primary vehicle is locked, how do you usually unlock it?
• Key------------------------17
• Button on remote----------74
• PIN pad / keypad------------1
• Proximity detector-----------2
• Smartphone app ------------0
• Other-----------------------4
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jul 12, 2014 11:52:53 PM

When your primary vehicle is locked, how do you usually unlock it?
• Key------------------------15
• Button on remote----------80
• PIN pad / keypad------------1
• Proximity detector-----------2
• Smartphone app ------------0
• Other-----------------------0

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 10, 2014 11:31:06 PM


Thanks Bug; you were pretty close too. I did a little research for this poll so it was slightly educated guesswork instead of pure guesswork.   ;o)
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jul 10, 2014 9:14:54 AM

jrs does it again with a large spread. Good predicting!
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 10, 2014 1:20:53 AM

Results for 2014-28 with 16000 votes tallied.
Do you own a hybrid or diesel or electric vehicle?

Prognosticator-----ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Hybrid -------------1 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - -1
• Diesel-------------(1) - - - - - -1 - - - - - (1)
• Electric ------------0 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - -0
• > one-------------17 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - -6
• No --------------(20) - - - - - (4) - - - - -(6)
Score --------------39 - - - - - - 8 - - - - - 14

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jul 6, 2014 12:53:50 AM

Do you own a hybrid or diesel or electric vehicle?
06 • Hybrid
06 • Diesel
00 • Electric
07 • More than one of these
78 • No
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
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Message Posted: Jul 6, 2014 12:08:30 AM

Do you own a hybrid or diesel or electric vehicle?
• Hybrid--------------6
• Diesel--------------8
• Electric-------------1
• > one--------------2
• No ---------------80

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,645
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Message Posted: Jul 5, 2014 11:16:53 PM

Do you own a hybrid or diesel or electric vehicle?
06 • Hybrid
06 • Diesel
00 • Electric (This is a gas prices website)
18 • More than one of these
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)

[Edited by: ziyulu at 7/5/2014 11:17:09 PM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 4, 2014 11:50:40 PM


Of course the barefoot poll is still up -- this is Friday evening, not Saturday. The holiday got me all mixed up and an aging brain does not help. Sigh.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 4, 2014 11:41:25 PM

Thanks Bugc, and it was truly a guess. I had only a vague idea how that one might go. I fall in the ‘frequently’ group but it was no surprise that is a small minority. In warm weather I wear shoes only when dong a string of errands. For any distance over the road it is barefoot all the way.

BTW, I just checked the Halifax site (AT) and the barefoot poll is still up.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jul 3, 2014 9:09:21 AM

Wow. Outstanding guess, jrsva!

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 3, 2014 12:28:22 AM

Results for 2014-27 with 17600 votes tallied.
Do you ever drive barefoot?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc - - - ziyulu
• Never--------------11 - - - - -1 - - - - - -6 - - - - - (4)
• Rarely ------------(12) - - - -(2) - - - - -(7) - - - - (4)
• Sometimes----------1 - - - - -1 - - - - - (1) - - - - - 0
• Frequently---------(1) - - - - 0 - - - - - (1) - - - - - 7
Score----------------25 - - - - -4 - - - - - 15 - - - - -15

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Message Posted: Jul 1, 2014 12:12:30 AM


Thanks Bugc. Occasionally it is a drag but mostly I like working with numbers so I enjoy doing it. I apologize for the occasional arithmetic error. I don’t think I’ve ever made two errors on one poll before.   :-(
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jun 30, 2014 7:44:56 AM

Jrsva- congratulations on the win and thank you for all the work you do with tallying the scores.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 30, 2014 12:11:37 AM

I recalculated the results for 2014-26 after it closed (20809 votes).
What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?

But first, I made two adding errors in the results as posted previously; corrected version:
Prognosticator------------jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc - - - jerry
• Find cheap fuel-----------(10) - - - -(21) - - - -(22) - - - -(8)
• Posting prices--------------5 - - - - -14 - - - - - -8 - - - - (5)
• Points/prizes---------------5 - - - - - -1 - - - - - -5 - - - - 15
• Read news articles--------(2) - - - - - 1 - - - - - -0 - - - - (1)
• Forums/socialize-----------4 - - - - - -5 - - - - - -9 - - - - - 4
• Other--------------------(2) - - - - - 2 - - - - - (1) - - - - (3)
Score----------------------28 - - - - -44 - - - - -45 - - - - -36

Now, the scores after the final tally:
Score----------------------32 - - - - -50 - - - - -51 - - - - -36
Interestingly, everyone’s score got worse except Jerry, who stayed the same.

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,645
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Message Posted: Jun 29, 2014 12:05:21 AM

Do you ever drive barefoot?
60 • Never (12 * 5 characters)
18 • Rarely (3 * 6 characters)
09 • Sometimes
10 • Frequently
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
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Message Posted: Jun 28, 2014 11:54:40 PM

OK, I'll go in the middle:

Do you ever drive barefoot?
• Never--------------70
• Rarely -------------15
• Sometimes----------8
• Frequently------------2
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jun 28, 2014 11:50:56 PM

Do you ever drive barefoot?
• Never--------------65
• Rarely -------------20
• Sometimes----------10
• Frequently------------3

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,505
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Message Posted: Jun 28, 2014 11:11:10 PM

It is good to see a close match like last week.

I am a little surprised to be first out of the gate since it is already after midnight in Atlantic Time Zone. Here goes for next week:

Do you ever drive barefoot?
75 • Never
10 • Rarely
10 • Sometimes
02 • Frequently
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jun 26, 2014 11:45:36 PM

Results for 2014-26 with 17600 votes tallied.
What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?

Prognosticator------------jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc - - - jerry
• Find cheap fuel-----------(10) - - - -(21) - - - -(22) - - - -(8)
• Posting prices--------------5 - - - - -14 - - - - - -8 - - - - (5)
• Points/prizes---------------5 - - - - - -1 - - - - - -5 - - - - 15
• Read news articles--------(2) - - - - -1 - - - - - -0 - - - - (1)
• Forums/socialize-----------4 - - - - - -5 - - - - - -9 - - - - - 4
• Other--------------------(2) - - - - - 2 - - - - - (1) - - - - (3)
Score----------------------28 - - - - -43 - - - - -40 - - - - -36

The percentages are still drifting slowly but it does not look like the trend will change these scores. Rather even game this week.

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 25, 2014 11:37:27 PM

We’re having the same sort of trend this week as we did two weeks ago when we asked about frequency of posting prices. Those seeking cheap fuel changed from 41% to 59% from Sunday morning to now, while those primarily posting prices went from 44% to 26%. The other four choices are drawing small numbers that have not changed dramatically. I see the same reasoning as before — dedicated members vote early and the general membership trickles in as the week progresses.

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Jun 22, 2014 8:05:25 PM

I just logged on so I am predicting before answering the poll

What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?
52 - Find cheap fuel
20 - Posting prices
20 - Points/prizes
02 - Read news articles
05 - Forums/socialize
00 - Other
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jun 22, 2014 8:09:03 AM

I entered my guess last night but it didn't get saved. Maybe I didn't hit the post button. This was still on my clipboard from before midnight:

What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?
38 - Find cheap fuel
33 - Posting prices
10 - Points/prizes
03 - Read news articles
10 - Forums/socialize
02 - Other

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,645
Points:2,054,450
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jun 22, 2014 12:16:38 AM

What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?
39 • Find cheap fuel (3 * 13 characters)
39 • Posting prices (3 * 13 characters)
06 • (Points)/prizes
04 • Read (news) articles
06 • (Forums)/socialize
05 • Other
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jun 22, 2014 12:04:09 AM

What is the main reason you visit the GasBuddy web site?
• Find cheap fuel------------50
• Posting prices-------------30
• Points/prizes--------------10
• Read news articles---------1
• Forums/socialize-----------5
• Other---------------------1

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 21, 2014 12:08:51 AM

Results for 2014-25 with 18800 votes tallied.
Did you pass the driving part of your driver's license test on the first try?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc
• Yes---------------------7 - - - - - (2) - - - - 0
• No---------------------(9) - - - - -(2) - - - -(1)
• No driving test---------(1) - - - - - 3 - - - - - 1
Score -------------------17 - - - - - -7 - - - - -2

Great job Bug; how’d you do that?!

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
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Message Posted: Jun 15, 2014 12:52:32 AM

Did you pass the driving part of your driver's license test on the first try?
• Yes--------------------83
• No----------------------13
• No driving test----------3
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,645
Points:2,054,450
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jun 14, 2014 11:43:59 PM

Did you pass the driving part of your driver's license test on the first try?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
12 • No (6 * 2 characters)
05 • (Never) took the driving test
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 14, 2014 11:14:18 PM


Bug, your calculation for last week looks right to me. “Every day” has now dropped to 39% with 18128 votes. Once it has reached 40 any further decline will not affect the relative scores.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 14, 2014 11:06:42 PM

They put up the driving-test question; I just checked Halifax (AT) to see what happened.
I guess I’ll stick with the guesses I posted last week.

Did you pass the driving part of your driver's license test on the first try?
• Yes--------------------90
• No----------------------5
• No driving test----------3

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
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Message Posted: Jun 14, 2014 4:51:08 PM

At the moment it is at 40%. Could it drop further?

Prognosticator----bugc - - - ziyulu
• Every day----------0 - - - - -24
• Most days---------(17) - - - - (3)
• About half----------8 - - - - (1)
• Seldom-----------(15) - - - (11)
• Never-------------(9) - - - -(6)
Score---------------49 - - - - 45


Did I do it correctly? Here are the current numbers:
Every day 40%
Most days 19%
About half 10%
Seldom 17%
Never 11%
Total votes: 17844


[Edited by: bugc at 6/14/2014 4:52:42 PM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
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Message Posted: Jun 14, 2014 12:11:32 AM

Revised results for 2014-24 with 17000 votes tallied.
I post fuel prices on GasBuddy

Prognosticator----bugc - - - ziyulu
• Every day----------1 - - - - -23
• Most days---------(3) - - - - (3)
• About half----------8 - - - - (1)
• Seldom-----------(14) - - - (10)
• Never-------------(9) - - - -(6)
Score---------------49 - - - - 43

Same result but a much narrower spread. I did not remember that the same poll had been run just one year ago. I’ve never seen a poll change over the course of the week like this one did except when this same question was asked last year. Then the very early returns reported 83% for daily, dropping on Monday to 57% and then trickling down over the course of the week to 40%. I feel sure that Bugc’s observation is correct — those who post prices every day also take the poll early in the week.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jun 13, 2014 11:47:10 PM

At 16958 votes, it has dropped to 41%

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jun 12, 2014 5:46:45 PM

The “Daily” count was 69 at 4000 .... and now it has dropped to 44.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Jun 11, 2014 12:25:07 AM

.... and Every day has now dropped to 48. I guess this shows that if people post every day, they are likely to take the poll early in the week. Here are the current results as I just posted in the discussion topic:

Interesting to note that this weeks question was asked exactly a year ago, with quite different results:

Poll 2013 #24
I post fuel prices on GasBuddy
Every day 38%
Most days 22%
About half 10%
Seldom 15%
Never 12%

Poll 2014 #24
I post fuel prices on GasBuddy
Every day 48%
Most days 20%
About half 8%
Seldom 12%
Never 9%



[Edited by: bugc at 6/11/2014 12:26:50 AM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jun 10, 2014 12:19:16 AM

I’ve never seen as much change with increasing vote count as this poll has had. There have been 3500 votes since I posted results and the spread has narrowed from 52 points to 31 points. Generally once the vote count is up to 500 there will not be much more change and by 2000 the counts will fluctuate by just a point or two.

This week the “Daily” count dropped from 69 at 4000 to 52 at 11900 and the “Most days” count rose from 13 to 20 over the same period. Very unusual.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
Points:3,447,200
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Message Posted: Jun 9, 2014 12:20:26 AM

That is quite a spread!

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,186
Points:2,063,875
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Jun 8, 2014 11:38:03 PM

Results for 2014-24 with 8480 votes tallied.
I post fuel prices on GasBuddy

Prognosticator----bugc - - - ziyulu
• Every day--------(21) - - - - 3
• Most days---------19 - - - - (1)
• About half---------12 - - - - -3
• Seldom------------(6) - - - -(2)
• Never-------------(4) - - - -(1)
Score---------------62 - - - - 10

It is early days yet but it looks like a clear winner. Good work Z.

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,645
Points:2,054,450
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Jun 8, 2014 8:04:58 AM

I post fuel prices on GasBuddy
64 Every day (8 * 8 characters)
16 Most days (2 * 8 characters)
09 About half
06 Seldom
05 Never
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,304
Points:3,447,200
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Jun 8, 2014 12:33:00 AM

Here's the poll they are using:

I post fuel prices on GasBuddy
40 Every day
36 Most days
18 About half
02 Seldom
02 Never
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