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jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,128
Points:1,648,795
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Apr 16, 2014 9:28:31 PM

Thanks, jrsva and bugc. It is nice to see the first up jinx lifted for a while.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 16, 2014 12:20:15 AM

Excellent, Jerry!

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Apr 14, 2014 11:51:57 PM

Results for 2014-16 with 13000 votes tallied.
Would you consider an electric or hybrid for your next vehicle?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------2 - - - - - 33 - - - - - 12 - - - - - 26
• No ---------------(1) - - - - (35) - - - -(12) - - - - (27)
Score ---------------3 - - - - - 68 - - - - - 24 - - - - - 53

Congratulations Jerry. This puts the going-first jinx to rest at least for now.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Apr 13, 2014 12:40:27 AM

"consider" is not a big commitment. I'd go high:

74 Yes
24 No

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Apr 12, 2014 11:34:18 PM

Z is a true optimist; I feel daring to go this high —

Would you consider an electric or hybrid for your next vehicle?
• Yes---------------60
• No ---------------39
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Apr 12, 2014 11:21:47 PM

Would you consider an electric or hybrid for your next vehicle?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,128
Points:1,648,795
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Message Posted: Apr 12, 2014 12:42:57 PM

Congratulations jrsva on the win last week.

Here are my predictions for next week. I am not sure which question will arise so I am predicting both.When using fuel additives, do you notice a difference on how your vehicle runs?
10 • It runs better
00 • It runs worse
05 • Various results
01 • No difference
85 • I don't use them

Would you consider an electric or hybrid for your next vehicle?
50 • Yes
50 • No


[Edited by: jerry972 at 4/12/2014 12:43:27 PM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Apr 8, 2014 12:22:27 AM

Results for 2014-15 with 12800 votes tallied.
Should backup cameras be required on most new vehicles?

Prognosticator------bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - jerry
• Yes----------------16 - - - - - 5 - - - - - - 1 - - - - - (4)
• No----------------(12) - - - (10) - - - - - (2) - - - - - 8
• No opinion----------(4) - - - - -1 - - - - - - 0 - - - - -(3)
Score----------------32 - - - - 16 - - - - - - 3 - - - - - 15

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Apr 6, 2014 12:32:44 AM

Should backup cameras be required on most new vehicles?
• Yes----------------45
• No-----------------50
• No opinion----------5
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Apr 5, 2014 11:55:33 PM

Just got in from watching basketball; whew, what a wild finish! And wild guess on this one.

Should backup cameras be required on most new vehicles?
• Yes----------------50
• No-----------------40
• No opinion----------8

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
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Message Posted: Apr 5, 2014 11:32:22 PM

Should backup cameras be required on most new vehicles?
54 • Yes (18 * 3 characters)
32 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Apr 5, 2014 10:12:58 AM

Nobody venturing a guess, eh?

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Apr 4, 2014 12:32:42 AM

OK, I'll go first again....

Should backup cameras be required on most new vehicles?
65 • Yes
30 • No
04 • No opinion

Maybe I'll change this later....
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Apr 3, 2014 12:23:49 AM

Results for 2014-14 with 15300 votes tallied.
Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?

Prognosticator-----bugc - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - jerry
• Yes----------------13 - - - - -3 - - - - - - (2) - - - - 18
• No ---------------(12) - - - -(5) - - - - - - 2 - - - - (17)
Score ---------------25 - - - - -8 - - - - - - -4 - - - - -35

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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

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Message Posted: Mar 30, 2014 12:46:28 PM

I just got in, too. Sorry to be late also. (I haven't looked yet).

Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?
• Yes-------------60
• No -------------40

[Edited by: jerry972 at 3/30/2014 12:47:02 PM EST]
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
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Message Posted: Mar 30, 2014 12:03:00 AM

I just got in, sorry to be late. I’m more of a pessimist on this —

Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?
• Yes-------------40
• No -------------59

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 29, 2014 11:19:41 PM

Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?
45 • Yes (15 * 3 characters)
52 • No (26 * 2 characters)
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
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Message Posted: Mar 29, 2014 12:48:48 PM

OK, I'll go first with absolutely no idea....

Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?
55 • Yes
45 • No

How about giving a 10 point bonus for guesses made before the poll starts?
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Mar 25, 2014 11:48:48 PM

Results for 2014-13 with 15200 votes tallied.
Should motorcyclists be required to wear helmets?

Prognosticator------bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Yes-----------------7 - - - - - -4 - - - - - 10
• No-----------------(5) - - - - -(2) - - - - -(6)
• No opinion----------(2) - - - - -(1) - - - - -(3)
Score----------------14 - - - - - -7 - - - - -19

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Mar 23, 2014 11:59:44 PM


That’s a bummer. I certainly did not remember asking about helmets just a year ago. Fine to repeat polls but not that often!! With that “minors” choice in there it makes it hard to compare results.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

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Message Posted: Mar 23, 2014 11:42:23 AM

My "research" was to look at old poll results. It appears that nobody noticed this question was asked less than a year ago. The "research" helped a little but not much.

Poll 2013 #15

Should motorcycle riders be required to use a helmet?
Yes, all 69%
Yes, minors and/or new riders 11%
No 15%
No opinion 3%
Total votes: 23482

[Edited by: bugc at 3/23/2014 11:42:49 AM EST]
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
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Message Posted: Mar 22, 2014 11:36:35 PM

Should motorcyclists be required to wear helmets?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
02 • (No) opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 22, 2014 11:18:41 PM

Should motorcyclists be required to wear helmets?
• Yes----------------75
• No ----------------20
• No opinion----------4
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Mar 22, 2014 10:51:17 PM

Nobody seems to be accepting my challenge. After some research I'll change my guess. Still posting before the polls open:

Should motorcyclists be required to wear helmets?
78 • Yes
17 • No
03 • No opinion

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Mar 22, 2014 1:42:27 PM

Should motorcyclists be required to wear helmets?
60 • Yes
30 • No
05 • No opinion

How about avoiding suspicion by cutting off the guessing before the early voting begins?

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
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Message Posted: Mar 19, 2014 1:45:47 PM

I peeked at your prediction, jrsva!
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 19, 2014 1:03:21 AM

Results for 2014-12 with 14100 votes tallied.
Should government set fuel economy standards for vehicles?

Prognosticator---jerry - - - bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Yes--------------18 - - - - -13 - - - - -(3) - - - - (1)
• No--------------(17) - - - -(13) - - - - -3 - - - - - 1
Score--------------35 - - - - -26 - - - - - 6 - - - - - 2

Very good Z; sure you didn’t peek?   ;-)

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 16, 2014 7:38:20 AM

Should government set fuel economy standards for vehicles?
51 • Yes (17 * 3 characters)
48 • No (24 * 2 characters)
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Mar 15, 2014 11:51:17 PM

I would like to think that a solid majority would favor fuel-economy standards but I fear that the strong rightward tilt of the GB population will prevent that — so I will go slightly in the other direction.

Should government set fuel economy standards for vehicles?
• Yes-------------49
• No--------------50

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Mar 15, 2014 10:18:09 PM

I have no idea, but to be a little different:


Should government set fuel economy standards for vehicles?
65 • Yes
34 • No
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,128
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Message Posted: Mar 15, 2014 8:32:21 PM

I am at a distinct disadvantage being first out of the gate and it already 8:30 pm on the US East Coast.

Should government set fuel economy standards for vehicles?
70 • Yes
30 • No

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 12, 2014 11:26:25 PM

Results for 2014-11 with 15900 votes tallied.
Should seat belts be required on all school buses?

Prognosticator-----ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------12 - - - - - -6 - - - - - -7
• No----------------(11) - - - - -(4) - - - - (5)
• No opinion ---------(1) - - - - -(2) - - - - -(1)
Score----------------24 - - - - - 12 - - - - - 13

Even though it is just a one-point game, I don’t see any scenario that would change the result. The guesses were bunched up again this week.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Mar 9, 2014 12:32:40 AM

OK, I'll tweak a little:

Should seat belts be required on all school buses?
• Yes----------------76
• No-----------------14
• No opinion ----------9
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 9, 2014 12:11:41 AM

Should seat belts be required on all school buses?
• Yes----------------75
• No-----------------15
• No opinion ----------8
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2014 11:38:30 PM

Should seat belts be required on all school buses?
81 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 * 3 characters)
08 • No (2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 6, 2014 11:09:51 PM

Results for 2014-10 with 17200 votes tallied.
Are you concerned about data-gathering devices/technology in your vehicle invading your privacy?

Prognosticator--------jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc
• Yes-------------------(11) - - - - (7) - - - - -(9)
• No----------------------3 - - - - - 5 - - - - - - 4
• More info---------------8 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 5
Score--------------------22 - - - - 14 - - - - - 18

Congrats Z. The guesses were certainly all bunched up this week. Interesting poll though.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
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Message Posted: Mar 2, 2014 12:34:57 AM

OK, I'll hedge my guess by taking the mid-point between previous guesses....

Are you concerned about data-gathering devices/technology in your vehicle invading your privacy?
52 • Yes
31 • No
15 • Need more info
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 1, 2014 11:28:15 PM

Are you concerned about data-gathering devices/technology in your vehicle invading your privacy?
54 • Yes (18 * 3 characters)
32 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
12 • Need more info
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Mar 1, 2014 11:23:33 PM

OK, I’ll go first this week. It’s pure guesswork, at least for me.

Are you concerned about data-gathering devices/technology in your vehicle invading your privacy?
• Yes--------------------50
• No---------------------30
• More info--------------18

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 25, 2014 11:35:46 PM

Results for 2014-09 with 15500 votes tallied.
How frequently do you drive with one hand?

Prognosticator-------jerry - - - bugc - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu
• Often----------------(33) - - - -(28) - - - -(3) - - - - (8)
• Sometimes -----------12 - - - - -(3) - - - - -2 - - - - - 8
• Rarely----------------23 - - - - -32 - - - - - 2 - - - - - 2
• I don’t drive------------1 - - - - - 0 - - - - - 0 - - - - - 1
Score-------------------69 - - - - 63 - - - - - 7 - - - - -19

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 11:26:15 PM

How frequently do you drive with one hand?
45 • Often (9 * 5 characters)
36 • Sometimes (4 * 9 characters)
18 • Rarely (3* 6 characters)
01 • (I) don’t drive
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 11:24:29 PM

How frequently do you drive with one hand?
• Often-----------------50
• Sometimes -----------30
• Rarely----------------18
• I don’t drive------------0

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 9:32:54 PM

How frequently do you drive with one hand?
25 • Often
25 • Sometimes
48 • Rarely
00 • I don’t drive
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,128
Points:1,648,795
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 6:05:58 PM

My predictions:

How frequently do you drive with one hand?
20 • Often
40 • Sometimes
39 • Rarely
01 • I don’t drive
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,128
Points:1,648,795
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Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 6:03:48 PM

Congrats on the zero, jrsva.

Easier with fewer choices does not mean easy.

[Edited by: jerry972 at 2/22/2014 6:05:07 PM EST]
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
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Message Posted: Feb 22, 2014 10:52:18 AM

If we have five choices and someone gets a zero, then they have won the lottery. We should give prizes like a poll question from that individual.
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

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Points:1,941,200
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Message Posted: Feb 21, 2014 11:10:46 PM

I thought we had a zero once several years ago but I looked back thru my notes and could not turn it up. I had a 3 and Z had a 2 on successive weeks in 2012 and then there was the week where I won with an 86. No one had a clue that time. It is easier to get low scores on these polls with fewer answer choices.

I sure did a crappy job of column alignment this time.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:16,775
Points:3,325,730
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2014 7:46:42 PM

Wow! Is this the first perfect score?

Good guessing!

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:10,145
Points:1,930,570
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2014 1:30:54 PM

Wow, jrsva won the lottery!
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:11,656
Points:1,941,200
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2014 12:19:09 AM

Results for 2014-08 with 16970 votes tallied.
Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?

Prognosticator----jerry - - - jrsva - - - ziyulu - - - bugc
• Yes-----------------9 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (5) - - - - - 5
• No ----------------(8) - - - - -0 - - - - - -5 - - - - - (5)
Score-----------------17 - - - - - -0 - - - - - -10 - - - - - -10

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