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jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Apr 19, 2015 11:18:08 AM

Would you put a tracker in your car to save on auto insurance?
27 - Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 - No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
14 - Have not decided
03 - N/A
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 19, 2015 12:05:42 AM

Would you put a tracker in your car to save on auto insurance?
10 - Yes
60 - No
30 - Have not decided
00 - N/A
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 15, 2015 12:16:09 AM

After >15K votes, I get:

ziyulu - 35
bugc - 22

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 14, 2015 12:10:59 AM

Last week's poll results:
Do you think buying certified pre-owned vehicles are worth it (versus buying the same vehicle uncertified)?

Zilulu 51
Jerry 54
Bugc 55

(A couple of days ago it was 52, 53, 56)

Congratulations Z.

Does anyone want the details posted?

[Edited by: bugc at 4/14/2015 12:11:43 AM EST]
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 12, 2015 12:14:07 AM

What type of navigation system do you use most often while driving?
11 • Built-in
30 • Portable GPS
18 • Mobile phone
03 • Tablet
01 • Other
35 • I don't use one
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Apr 11, 2015 11:30:40 PM

What type of navigation system do you use most often while driving?
08 • Built-in
22 • Portable GPS (2 * 11 characters)
22 • Mobile phone (2 * 11 characters)
06 • Tablet
05 • Other
36 • I don't use one (3 * 12 characters)
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 8, 2015 2:15:47 PM

Probably still too close to call with all current the guesses above 50.

I claim the previous week's winnings with a score of 46 and no other contenders.
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Apr 5, 2015 12:39:37 AM

Do you think buying certified pre-owned vehicles are worth it (versus buying the same vehicle uncertified)?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
38 • Depends on the vehicle (2 * 19 characters)
09 • No opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Apr 4, 2015 11:25:41 PM


Do you think buying certified pre-owned vehicles are worth it (versus buying the same vehicle uncertified)?
15 • Yes
45 • No
30 • Depends on the vehicle
05 • No opinion
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Apr 4, 2015 4:05:26 PM

Here is my prediction for the coming week:

Do you think buying certified pre-owned vehicles are worth it (versus buying the same vehicle uncertified)?
10 • Yes
20 • No
50 • Depends on the vehicle
20 • No opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 29, 2015 6:18:37 PM

I didn't look. My guess for the poll this week is:

Would you be interested in trying a self-driving car?
65 *Yes
34 *No
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 25, 2015 1:04:45 AM

Results for 2015-12 with a final tally of 18407 votes.
How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?

Prognosticator--------------------------ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - jerry - - - bugc
• Adequate for the location-----------------4 - - - - - 3 - - - - - 6 - - - - - 2
• Fair, needs improvement -----------------(1) - - - -(2) - - - - (7) - - - - (3)
• Poor, replace with over/underpass--------(2) - - - - 1 - - - - - 1 - - - - - 0
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------3 - - - - -0 - - - - -(1) - - - - (1)
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------2 - - - - (3) - - - - -3 - - - - - 3
Score--------------------------------------12 - - - - 9 - - - - - 18 - - - - -9

Yes indeed, it was too close to call — ending in a tie.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 24, 2015 12:11:21 AM

For last week's poll, jrsva wrote: "I was going to post results but it is too close to call."

Yes, it is a dead heat. My back of an envelope calculations show that jrsva and I are tied. The scores are:

jrsva- 9
bugc- 9
ziyulu- 12
jerry- 18

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 22, 2015 12:51:11 AM


In which months do you think gas prices will bottom out in 2015?
50 - Jan-Mar
13 - Apr-Jun
10 - Jul-Sep
25 - Oct-Dec
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 21, 2015 6:33:22 PM

Predications for the coming week:

In which months do you think gas prices will bottom out in 2015?
60 - Jan-Mar
10 - Apr-Jun
10 - Jul-Sep
20 - Oct-Dec
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 19, 2015 12:34:37 AM


I was going to post results but it is too close to call.
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 15, 2015 8:43:36 PM

I haven't looked. I'll guess:

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
64 • Adequate for the location
14 • Fair, needs improvement
06 • Poor, replace with over/underpass
00 • Poor, close road to eliminate
15 • I don't encounter RR crossings
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 15, 2015 1:01:14 AM


How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
• Adequate for the location-----------------68
• Fair, needs improvement-----------------10
• Poor, replace with over/underpass---------7
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------0
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------15
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 14, 2015 11:46:54 PM

Pretty similar to yours, Z, but I did have it all worked out before seeing yours.

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
• Adequate for the location-----------------65
• Fair, needs improvement-----------------15
• Poor, replace with over/underpass---------7
• Poor, close road to eliminate---------------1
• I don't encounter RR crossings-------------9

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 14, 2015 11:28:57 PM

How would you rate the safety of the railroad crossing you most frequently encounter?
66 • Adequate for the location (3 * 22 characters)
16 • Fair, (needs improvement)
04 • (Poor), replace with over/underpass
04 • (Poor), close road to eliminate
14 • I (don't encounter) RR crossings
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 13, 2015 12:27:35 AM

Results for 2015-11 with 17600 votes tallied.
How do you feel about seatbelt laws in your area?

Prognosticator--------------------jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Make them more strict-----------(12) - - - - 1 - - - - - - 3 - - - - -(7)
• Keep them unchanged------------24 - - - (10) - - - - - -9- - - - - -3
• Make them less strict--------------0 - - - - -5 - - - - - -(3) - - - - -3
• Abolish them completely----------(6) - - - -(4) - - - - - (7) - - - - (2)
• No opinion-----------------------(3) - - - - (1) - - - - - (1) - - - - -2
Score-----------------------------45 - - - - -21 - - - - - -23 - - - - 17

Congratulations Bugc.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 9, 2015 1:02:42 AM

I can claim to be the winner (or loser) for last week's 2015#10 poll. The score was 48. Not good, but only one contestant......
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 5:02:57 AM

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
10 * Make them more strict
64 * Keep them unchanged
08 * Make them less strict
09 * Abolish them completely
05 * No Opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 12:07:12 AM

How do you feel about seatbelt laws in your area?
• Make them more strict------------20
• Keep them unchanged------------70
• Make them less strict---------------2
• Abolish them completely -----------4
• No opinion--------------------------2

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Mar 8, 2015 12:03:28 AM

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
18 * Make them more strict
51 * Keep them unchanged (3 * 17 characters)
10 * Make them (less strict)
07 * (Abolish) them completely
02 * (No) Opinion
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Mar 7, 2015 6:43:36 PM

Predictions for the coming week:

How do you feel about seat belt laws in your area?
05 * Make them more strict
85 * Keep them unchanged
05 * Make them less strict
05 * Abolish them completely
00 * No Opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 4, 2015 12:06:27 AM

Welcome, Mininana, Yes, it is fun.

The upcoming poll question is usually posted at this forum on Friday afternoon, or just watch for a posting here.

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Mininana
Champion Author New York

Posts:1,226
Points:175,110
Joined:Dec 2014
Message Posted: Mar 3, 2015 4:24:00 PM

this sounds like fun, will try to get the hang of it and join in...
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Mar 1, 2015 12:05:30 AM

Do you feel it's beneficial to bundle insurance policies with one company?
07 *Yes, for convenience
07 *Yes, for better pricing
80 *Yes, both of the above
02 *No
03 *No opinion / NA
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 26, 2015 11:36:59 AM

Results for 2015-09 with 17200 votes tallied.
Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?

Prognosticator---------bugc - - - jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva
• Significantly-----------(11) - - - -(12) - - - - (3) - - - - -(1)
• Minimally---------------(5)- - - - -15 - - - - -13 - - - - - -5
• No---------------------14 - - - - - -1 - - - - (13) - - - - -(4)
• No opinion---------------2 - - - - - (3) - - - - (1) - - - - - 0
Score--------------------32 - - - - - 31 - - - - -30 - - - - -10

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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 22, 2015 12:12:06 AM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
• Significantly------------15
• Minimally---------------55
• No---------------------25
• No opinion---------------3
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 11:09:28 PM

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
13 • Significantly
63 • Minimally (7 * 9 characters)
16 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
02 • (No) opinion
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 21, 2015 12:18:16 PM

Thank you for going first this week, bugc. Nice job on last week's poll.

Here is my prediction

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
04 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
00 • No opinion

[Edited by: jerry972 at 2/21/2015 12:20:32 PM EST]
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:29:47 PM

First guess:


Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
45 • Minimally
43 • No
05 • No opinion

How will "minimally" be interpreted by the voters?
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 5:23:34 PM

Wow, a sudden swing toward the yes:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 16%
No 83%
Total votes: 18270

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 20, 2015 12:58:48 AM

The poll has been holding at 14/85 for a long time, but at this moment it is:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 15%
No 84%
Total votes: 17551

Easy score calculation this week!
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 17, 2015 1:11:21 AM

I guessed right on the shifting for a while, but the vote has now been tracking last year's poll.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 9:25:05 PM

Actually, I didn't peek this time. I checked the 2014#8 poll result:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
Yes 14%
No 85%
Total votes: 18567

and then figured I'd move 1% of the "yes" vote to "no" thinking the demographics may have possibly shifted in that direction.
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 2:53:53 PM

Hey bugc, no fair peeking! (The numbers in your prediction match exactly the results at the time I write this)
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 15, 2015 12:19:10 AM

They repeated last year's question:

Do you use real snow tires (not the all-season type)?
13 * Yes
86 * No
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 14, 2015 8:17:58 PM

Once again - first out of the gate:

Do you think the recent decline in fuel prices has influenced car buyers choices?
05 • Significantly
65 • Minimally
30 • No
01 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 12, 2015 12:09:46 AM

Results for 2015-07 with 18100 votes tallied.
Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?

Prognosticator------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc - - - ziyulu
• Yes---------------18 - - - - - 0 - - - - - (3) - - - - 2
• No---------------(13) - - - - 2 - - - - - -(3) - - - (4)
• IDK ---------------(4) - - - -(3) - - - - - -4 - - - - -3
Score---------------35 - - - - - 5 - - - - - -10 - - - - 9

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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 11, 2015 2:48:44 PM

It would always be a multiply of the number of key words. So, sometimes I manipulate the numbers and find a factor that makes everything add up close to 100%.
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a5
Champion Author Ottawa

Posts:4,986
Points:2,812,605
Joined:Sep 2005
Message Posted: Feb 9, 2015 8:41:45 PM

"I would use the number of characters in the key words to help me come up with the numbers."

and where do you get your multiplying factor from?

i.e. why is YES 3^3 and No 2^6?
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ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:12,043
Points:2,524,700
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 7:48:47 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 8, 2015 12:32:56 AM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
22 • Yes
65 • No
10 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 11:55:56 PM

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
• Yes---------------25
• No----------------70
• IDK ----------------3
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jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:8,422
Points:2,046,120
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Feb 7, 2015 5:19:52 PM

I was surprised also.

Here are my predictions for next week:

Do you think red-light cameras reduce accidents at intersections?
43 • Yes
55 • No
02 • No opinion
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 4, 2015 12:26:29 AM

Results for 2015-06 with 17600 votes tallied.
Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?

Prognosticator--------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------------------(9) - - - - (9) - - - -(11)
• No---------------------------(16) - - - (11) - - - - (19)
• I don't change grades---------23 - - - - 18 - - - - - 26
• I don't use gasoline-------------4 - - - - - 2 - - - - - - 4
Score---------------------------52 - - - - -40 - - - - - 60

Wow, we were all bad this week. I’m really surprised at how many folks change grades.

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bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:18,742
Points:3,864,910
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:16:52 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
08 • Yes
12 • No
73 • I don't change grades
05 • I don't use gasoline
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jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:13,451
Points:2,450,075
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Feb 1, 2015 12:06:59 AM

Do you notice a difference in mileage when using different grades of gasoline?
• Yes---------------------------10
• No----------------------------20
• I don't change grades-----------65
• I don't use gasoline--------------3
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