Not Logged In Log In   Sign Up   Points Leaders
Follow Us    10:29 AM

Message Forum - Read Message

Category: Talk back to us! > Topics Add to favorite topics   Post new topicPost New Topic
Author Topic: Poll Predictions Back to Topics
jrsva

Champion Author
Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 21, 2009 12:45:54 AM

A group of members who work on the opinion poll each week decided to start a new topic to discuss past polls and how they could be improved. Almost immediately we began to make predictions about how the next poll would turn out and then to keep score as the results came in. It soon became clear that this aspect was getting in the way of the main purpose of the poll-discussion thread. Hence this new topic, devoted to those who wish to predict poll results and discuss those predictions.

We now have 3 related topics: Setting up new polls, predicting their results, and discussing those results.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/21/2009 12:51:35 AM EST]
REPLIES (newest first) Post a Reply
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 20, 2014 12:11:44 AM

Results for 2014-42 with final tally of 22837 votes.
If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?

Prognosticator-------jrsva - - - bugc - - - jerry
• Sedan/Coupe----------1 - - - - -6 - - - - -(4)
• Pickup truck-----------8 - - - - -3 - - - - - 3
• Crossover/SUV -------(7) - - - (4) - - - - -8
• Van/Minivan-----------2 - - - - 1 - - - - - 1
• Sports car -----------(3) - - - (3) - - - - (2)
• Other----------------(1) - - - -(4) - - - - (3)
Score------------------22 - - - -21 - - - - -21

Congratulations Bug and Jerry! This must be the closest game ever.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 5:08:47 PM

WOW! I think last weeks scores are the closest grouping ever. There were big differences in the predictions. I see Jerry and me in a tie with jrs one point behind!

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:17:14 AM

I just noticed my guess is the same as jrsva. I suppose we could split the prize.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 19, 2014 12:15:11 AM

OK, I'll "guess" it will be the same as last year.

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
Yes, once or twice----18%
Yes, several times-----2%
No-----56%
NA / Automatic lights-----22%
Total votes: 20912
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 11:29:17 PM


“It looks like we are going to get a rerun of last year’s poll. The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site, where it is >midnight AT.”   And this time it really is Sunday in Halifax and the new poll is not yet up.
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 7:49:02 PM

Hey, for once I am not the first one posting. (I usually post around dinnertime on Saturday)

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
• Yes, once or twice -------28
• Yes, several times---------0
• No-----------------------40
• NA / Automatic lights-----32
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 12:53:21 AM


Oh sh--, I did it again. My day has seemed like a Saturday all day long so I'm totally confused. Made the same mistake a couple of months ago. Sheesh. A brain is a terrible thing to lose.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 18, 2014 12:25:59 AM

"The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site..." Yes it is only Saturday morning in Halifax..... ;-)

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 17, 2014 11:14:39 PM

Have you inadvertently driven at night with your headlights off within the last 5 years?
• Yes, once or twice -------18
• Yes, several times---------2
• No-----------------------56
• NA / Automatic lights-----22

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 17, 2014 11:11:09 PM

A slight shift in the numbers and it is now even closer. I will post results tomorrow after the poll closes.

It looks like we are going to get a rerun of last year’s poll. The new one is not yet up on the Halifax site, where it is >midnight AT.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 13, 2014 11:41:33 PM


Wow, too close to call again. We'll see what happens as the week progresses.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 11:20:51 PM

Results for 2014-41 with a final vote total of 18517:
Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?

Prognosticator--------------------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Rush-hour-specific tolls-------------3 - - - - 2 - - - - - 5
• Encourage carpooling--------------(1) - - - (2) - - - - 13
• Increase roadway capacity --------(1) - - - -2 - - - - (1)
• Better public transportation-------(11) - - - (9) - - - -(1)
• Flexible work schedules-----------(12) - - - (7) - - - (20)
• More telecommuting----------------9 - - - -13 - - - - -3
Score------------------------------37 - - - -35 - - - - 43

Back to a two-point gap or maybe I made a counting error before.
If Bugc had flipped his vote between carpools and flextime he would have won handily.


[Edited by: jrsva at 10/12/2014 11:22:21 PM EST]
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 1:21:25 AM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe-------- 30
• Pickup truck----------20
• Crossover/SUV------- 40
• Van/Minivan-----------7
• Sports car-------------2
• Other-----------------1
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:24:13 AM


I still see just one point between me and Jerry.
I'll recheck it after the poll closes later today.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:19:35 AM

one-point game for last week? I now see a two point spread with jrsva winning, but I could be wrong.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 12, 2014 12:08:12 AM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe-------- 40
• Pickup truck----------20
• Crossover/SUV------- 28
• Van/Minivan-----------7
• Sports car-------------1
• Other-----------------0
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 11, 2014 11:57:26 PM

If you were to buy a primary vehicle today, which would you buy?
• Sedan/Coupe---------35
• Pickup truck----------25
• Crossover/SUV-------25
• Van/Minivan-----------8
• Sports car-------------1
• Other-----------------3

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 11, 2014 11:29:20 PM


I was hoping to post the results before the new guesses come in but it is still a one-point game. I'm going to wait until the poll closes in Hawaii and post the final results tomorrow.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 7, 2014 11:47:37 PM


Too close to call. In fact we are running a tie right now.
I'll wait until Saturday to post results.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 5, 2014 4:58:01 PM

I haven't looked....

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
07-Rush-hour-specific tolls
24-Encourage carpooling
17-Increase roadway capacity
22-Better public transportation
12-Flexible work schedules
15-More telecommuting
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 5, 2014 12:12:25 AM

I just got in and almost forgot to make my guesses — really wild guesses this week.

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
• Rush-hour-specific tolls-------------4
• Encourage carpooling---------------9
• Increase roadway capacity--------20
• Better public transportation--------14
• Flexible work schedules------------25
• More telecommuting---------------25

Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 4:14:38 PM

Here is my prediction for the coming week:

Which is the best way to reduce congestion during rush hours?
05 • Rush-hour-specific tolls
10 • Encourage carpooling
17 • Increase roadway capacity
12 • Better public transportation
20 • Flexible work schedules
21 • More telecommuting
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 4:13:20 PM

Thanks for the catching the error, bugc. Since the blogs were talking about Waldo, FL, the poll was timely although definitely in the imbalanced answer category.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 1:01:07 AM

I definitely agree with Byte. We have typically rejected polls that have one answer that is almost certain to draw >90% of the vote; they are just not very interesting. I think we got mousetrapped on this one when we tried to convert a survey question on speed traps into an opinion poll. Oh well, we’ll do better next time.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 4, 2014 12:56:17 AM

Right you are Bugc, good catch. I made an error when I transcribed Jerry’s predictions.

Revised results for 2014-40 with 15900 votes tallied.
Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------(2) - - - (3) - - - - (3)
• No-----------------1 - - - - 5 - - - - - 3
• No opinion----------1 - - - -(1) - - - - -0
Score----------------4 - - - - 9 - - - - - 6

Congrats Jerry, sorry for the error.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 2:07:20 PM

Jerry predicted 90 for "No". I think Jerry was the winner.

Profile Pic
Byte_Doctor
Champion Author Akron

Posts:6,683
Points:1,320,865
Joined:Apr 2011
Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 8:45:32 AM

On the one hand, I agree, but on the other hand, this was a pretty pointless poll - in hindsight, we *all* knew it would generate those results. I'd much rather have a poll where the results are interesting, not "well, yeah, of course 90%+ voted No. Duh!"
Profile Pic
scoutmaster
Champion Author Pittsburgh

Posts:97,175
Points:3,854,790
Joined:Mar 2003
Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 7:17:38 AM

"I know I don't usually consider what the poll numbers will look like when I help come up with the poll question and answers. Perhaps we should..."

Nah. I think it's better when we brainstorm the idea regardless of what we thing the outcome will be.
Profile Pic
Byte_Doctor
Champion Author Akron

Posts:6,683
Points:1,320,865
Joined:Apr 2011
Message Posted: Oct 3, 2014 7:15:18 AM

" Pretty close this week but it was a no-brainer to choose a high “No” vote."

True - and I think most of us would have realized that if we had thought about it, but I know I don't usually consider what the poll numbers will look like when I help come up with the poll question and answers. Perhaps we should...
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Oct 1, 2014 11:46:56 PM

Results for 2014-40 with 15900 votes tallied.
Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes---------------(2) - - - - - (3) - - - - (3)
• No-----------------6 - - - - - - 5 - - - - - 3
• No opinion----------1 - - - - - -(1) - - - - -0
Score----------------9 - - - - - - 9 - - - - - 6

Congrats Bugc. Pretty close this week but it was a no-brainer to choose a high “No” vote.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Sep 28, 2014 10:22:53 AM

I'll splitthe difference:

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
04 • Yes
92 • No
02 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 28, 2014 12:12:26 AM

I think we should have expected this to be a >90% poll and not run it in this form....

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
• Yes----------------4
• No----------------94
• No opinion----------1

Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Sep 27, 2014 4:21:29 PM

Here is my prediction for the coming week.

Should law enforcement agencies use speed traps primarily as revenue generators?
05 • Yes
90 • No
03 • No opinion
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Sep 27, 2014 1:59:45 PM

Wow. I hadn't noticed that this is a repeat of poll 2013 #39.

I suppose I can claim to be the winner for this week's prediction. :-)

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 24, 2014 12:20:40 AM


                      Current      One year ago
1 to 30 days         6%    12%
31 to 60 days       6%     7%
61 to 90 days       6%     5%
91 days or more   65%    31%
No military action   15%    42%
Total votes:     13777    18594 (final)



[Edited by: jrsva at 9/24/2014 12:22:46 AM EST]
Profile Pic
Scrapheap
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:17,373
Points:2,958,050
Joined:Sep 2006
Message Posted: Sep 23, 2014 10:11:00 AM

I just changed my vote to 1-30 days. It will be interesting to see what the final numbers are. Currently

1 to 30 days 6%
31 to 60 days 6%
61 to 90 days 6%
91 days or more 65%
No military action 16%

Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Sep 22, 2014 10:02:23 PM

I don't think this week's question was the question we submitted. It is just as well I did not guess.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 22, 2014 12:05:04 AM

I was away all weekend so I did not have time to do much on this site, just checked in briefly on a borrowed computer shortly after midnight in AT and found that the poll was not posted so I did not try to enter any guesses. Just as well.

Bugc had the right general pattern for the answers, >90 days being an even bigger winner.
Not a relevant poll for GB IMO.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Sep 21, 2014 12:22:37 AM

This is the poll that has been posted with my wild guess.

If military action is taken against Syria, in what time frame do you believe this action will be over?
00- 1 to 30 days
03- 31 to 60 days
10- 61 to 90 days
45- 91 days or more
40- No military action
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Sep 20, 2014 11:58:19 PM

Well, it is midnight on the East Coast and no one has predicted yet. I guess this week is a "no-show"
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 17, 2014 12:23:45 AM

Results for 2014-38 with 14000 votes tallied.
Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?

Prognosticator------jerry - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes----------------(20) - - - - (5) - - - - (1)
• No------------------11 - - - - -12 - - - - - 2
• No opinion -----------9 - - - - -(7) - - - - -0
Score-----------------40 - - - - -24 - - - - - 3

Spectacular, Bugc!
The results shifted slightly away from you but it will never change enough to matter.

Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 14, 2014 11:45:03 PM


I think we can declare Bugc the winner, even tough it is still Sunday, off by only one point at this time. I will wait a day or two before posting the results.
Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Sep 14, 2014 1:00:23 AM

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
44 • Yes
46 • No
09 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 13, 2014 11:35:03 PM

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
• Yes-----------------40
• No -----------------56
• No opinion------------2
Profile Pic
jerry972
Champion Author Denver

Posts:7,873
Points:1,855,540
Joined:May 2008
Message Posted: Sep 13, 2014 10:32:09 AM

I notice that today's GB blog post is relevant to next week's question.
Here are my predictions:

Should vehicles be equipped with Event Data Recorders (“black boxes”) to help determine what caused an accident?
25 • Yes
55 • No
18 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 8, 2014 11:18:17 PM

Results for 2014-37 with 12500 votes tallied.
Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?

Prognosticator-----jerry - - - ziyulu - - - jrsva - - - bugc
• Yes-----------------9 - - - - - -1 - - - - - 14 - - - - - 16
• No----------------(14) - - - - (5) - - - - (13) - - - - (15)
• IDK -----------------4 - - - - - 5 - - - - - (2) - - - - - (1)
Score----------------27 - - - - -11 - - - - - 29 - - - - - 32

Congrats Z, another wide margin.

Profile Pic
bugc
Champion Author Boston

Posts:17,769
Points:3,598,750
Joined:Mar 2004
Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:51:59 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
42 • Yes
54 • No
03 • No opinion
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:33:17 PM


The link for last week’s results is wrong; the corrected link is 2014-36. Sorry.
Profile Pic
jrsva
Champion Author Virginia

Posts:12,680
Points:2,215,425
Joined:Jan 2006
Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:28:52 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
• Yes----------------40
• No-----------------56
• IDK -----------------2
Profile Pic
ziyulu
Champion Author Austin

Posts:11,106
Points:2,205,175
Joined:Aug 2007
Message Posted: Sep 6, 2014 11:25:04 PM

Various governments are proposing an increase in fuel taxes to fund road construction and maintenance; do you feel such changes are justified?
27 • Yes (3 * 3 * 3 characters)
64 • No (2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 characters)
09 • No opinion
Post a reply Back to Topics